Is this weird? I actually think Embiid playing well INCREASES the chances he stays at KU.
Hear me out - his hook and jumper are soft and beautiful. His footwork is like nothing I’ve ever seen. He runs the court with ease on the fast break. He is the most rapidly improving player I’ve ever even heard of. This guy is a high draft NBA lock this year, next year, or 4 years from now - no question.
I’ve noticed a few things though that really caught my eye - there were multiple rebounds and slams where he quite simply out “heighted” people. Wiggins will get 6-8 points a game by out “athleting” people in the same way Joel dominated last night. When he gets to the NBA those baskets, rebounds, and blocks won’t be there. His game is a lot like Anthony Davis in the sense that when his game comes to maturation he won’t be the best at anything but be darn good at a whole bunch of things. He will be a huge asset to Kansas this year simply because he’s an athletic 7 footer who gets good position and has a knack for finding the ball - not because he’s technically gifted enough to take a game over. But he’s close.
What I’m trying to get at is this - Embiied would be pushed around in the NBA this year, next year, and two years from now. He’s long but he’s not thick. With his intelligence and willingness to learn he will reach maturity much sooner then anyone expects but, if he leaves this year, he will still be learning next year as well. He’d probably play, he’d deffinitely get paid, but he’d be a few years away from becoming a fast Roy Hibbert. I think the top 3 are pretty locked in. Tweeners and potential are the surest way to get a GM fired and with the three can’t miss freshman coming out this year you’ll be darned to find a GM willing to pass on any of them. Then there’s Exum out of Australia and we all know how potent Marcus Smart can be. So, let’s say Jo leaves this year and is the 5th pick. Great for him, he’ll make a ton of money. But now let’s say he stays - Okafor is the #1 recruit in the class and Jo’s potential is phenominally higher than his. NBA loves potential and Jo is a quick learner - give him a few years and he’ll match Okafor’s offense but Okafor can never match Jo’s athleticism. I think there is a very real shot that Embiid is the #1 pick NEXT year. In fact, if he stays, I would be surprised if he wasn’t.
So there-in-lies the reason I think he may stay. Regardless if he stays 1 or 2 years he’s probably 3/4 years away from 20 and 10 on the NBA level. his first 2/3 years will be a growing process in the NBA. If he leaves after this year and say he’s the 5th overall pick he’ll make 2.9, 3.0, and 3.2 million respectively. The team option will be a fourth year at around 4 million and then his rookie contract will be up. If he doesn’t produce at a high level until his 3rd year maybe they don’t pick him up year 4. Maybe they offer him a lower qualifying offer and, when he blows up year 4, he’s already signed for 3/5 years. BUT, if he stays, and goes number 1 overall, he stands to make roughly 4.8 million MORE combined over his first 3 years (2nd 3.3 mil 3rd 2.1 mil). Furthermore - considering his maturation is further away, he’ll be coming into his prime years 2 (if lucky) and 3 which is a much better situation to be in when renegotiating your next contract. The NBA is all about your 2nd contract - that’s where the real money is.
I’ve thought this way for a while and I have people who agree and disagree with me. It’s hard to tell a kid to leave millions on the table but if you look at it from the perspective of, if he leaves, he may be leaving millions on the table, it might shed a bit of light for him. It’s a rare situation that he’s in having - so much raw talent and being in such a talent laden class. I don’t think I can recall a situation like this before but it just seems like it may be best for Jo financially to stay next year in the long run. I’m not considering the whole mental, physical, free school, great school bs into this decision because the NCAA right now, like it or not, is all about getting to the pros and getting paid. That’s fine by me. Jo will be a pro - I think if he stays he’ll be the wealthiest rookie in 2014.