February 21, 2015 -- The Day The Season Died
-
@HighEliteMajor This is something we will not know the full story on, maybe ever. What are the possibilities after the season? Cliff declares for the draft. He stays one more year. He transfers. Im no scout but maybe Cliff isnt ready and maybe he is. I agree though, the numbers say Cliff is a much better player than Traylor. What the hell is Coach doing!? You just dont leave your toughest horse in the barn when your trying to pull the plows. Lame analogy but yall know what I mean. One thing I do know, I never for one minute thought they were final four material this season. I do not have that expectation for this team at all. Maybe sweet 16. Maybe.
Another thing, KU needs to win Monday night regardless of who they play or dont play. They need that game. Kstate is clearly having a down year but in this league that’s not a guarantee of a loss against your instate rival.
Again, I am not holding out hope for a long run in the big dance. But, I am holding out hope for an 11th conference title.
-
A helluva good piece of writing even if I disagree on the substance. Great metaphor. Solid logic. I read the premises differently. You have probability on your side. I have a wild hair on mine. You will probably prevail, but like Nimitz, I see what I see and so, like you, I have to go another course. But I would recommend your take to anyone that looks at mine and says, “Nope, not buying.”
Rock Chalk!
-
@jaybate-1.0 USS Nimitz. Thats one bad@$$ ship
-
@bskeet I agree, especially on the passing. So many times it seems lackadaisical and scares me to think what a more alert opposing defense could do.
-
Don’t forget that Nimitz won all the big sea battles and the the overall sea campaign and was instrumental in winning WW II and was the US representative when Japan officially surrendered. Arguably, the brightest naval warfare mind of all time. Not a bad vision to have.
-
@JayHawkFanToo Agreed. Most will also agree though that the Battle of Midway, but for some bad calls by Yamamoto’s staff, could have easily gone the other way.
-
@joeloveshawks SEC is trash and the Gonzaga Mountain or whatever league is NO B12. It’s a bit of a stretch to even compare the other leagues to the B12. I re-read my post and the point I’m making is KU can’t get these fairly good 12-14 pt leads. The TCUs can’t be allowed to go on 7,8,9-0 runs and KU will not be able to recover.
I know these games create a false sense of winning or even coming from behind, and this is good, but KU has got to learn how to get a lead and maintain that lead. They did for the most part. I’d just feel personally better if they were able to keep those double digit leads and not lose them in stretches.
If you remember or review the TCU game, they blew their lead on a 7-0 TCU run and it was right after the big plays by Mason and Ellis too. I sat there and watched them gain a 14 pt lead and then allowed TCU to come back within 5 pts? So, I guess it was good they were able to get/maintain the lead and/or allow an unpredictable team like TCU to come back to within 5 pts and still win?
My bottom line with this individualized and opinionated post is that if they can continue to win in this fashion, great, more power to them, and hopefully this kind of play will take them straight to the NCAA championship game in April? I hope that’s the point of your comment. If so, you have either more ‘faith’ in this teams inability or I have more hope in their abilities.
Just for the record, I’m not expecting this team to blow teams off the court by 20+ pts either. But to win like this at home is a little unsettling.
-
We are a young team, very young. We will make rookie mistakes— fouling a three point shot, not once but twice. We have to live with that, not like it. For lack of a better example KSU football is in every game because they don’t beat themselves. It takes many of those players three or four years to get playing time and still they have to do it Snyder’s way or they get jerked. KU basketball doesn’t have that luxury because of players leaving early. Self plays the toughest schedule, demands his style and gets great results year after year. There are great coaches out there, but none I would trade for Self.
-
Like Calipari in 2008?
-
@HighEliteMajor said:
Regardless, Kansas needs to win national titles. That is greatness. Given our coach’s offensive mindset right now, and with Traylor (or Lucas for that matter) being the #2 minutes guy in the post, the hopes for a national title are dead. It is just that simple.
Now, could his offensive mindset change … ?
HEM- So what is exactly your point? Other than our season is ‘dead’ with Lucas and Traylor. Are you saying that Lucas and Traylor are utterly incapable of delivering some winning game performances?and/or are you saying Self needs to change his offensive mindset?
I disagree. I think if Lucas is given some of Cliff’s mins, he can/will produce. I think Mari has proven that he’s our more experienced man that can play some energy mins. You and I both know that Self is/will not change his offensive game plan. He will live and die by the inside/out game. We have firepower but it’s just not consistent enough this late in the season. The team showed some really nice ability to move the ball to the open or cutting man to the basketball in the last 5-8 mins of the game when they ground out the TCU win. A win is a win and at this point, I’ll take it. They can win, period. However, you’re not satisfied with winning, you’re more concerned about who? If Alex doesn’t produce and shows his typical undisciplined self, and gets into foul proned trouble, then Mari will have to be our go to big. Lucas give us some great experience against some good teams. Let’s just win and let Self decide who might lead us to that win.
-
@truehawk93 I think you have identified my point exactly – if we are to win Self’s way offensively, then we need Cliff clicking commensurate with his #3 ranking. If not, then we can’t win playing Self’s way offensively.
Think hard about your post. You say that “Lucas can/will produce.” There is no evidence of that. Lucas is a nice kid. Tries hard. But the evidence shows that his production is sporadic.
You said, “I think Mari has proven that he’s our more experienced man that can play some energy mins.” Energy and what? Have you read @Jesse-Newell’s article last week? I get you think he’ll have to “be our go to big.” That, my friend, is scary. But it is also true. Thus, my point.
Each player could have a game where they do play really well … Traylor won us the EKU game last season. But winning 6 games in March?
You also said, “A win is a win and at this point, I’ll take it. They can win, period. However, you’re not satisfied with winning, you’re more concerned about who?”
My concern is whether we can win a national title. Really, more my concern has been “how” – since really before the season started. Being satisfied with wins has little to do with whether we can win a national title. The Lucas/Traylor combo are certainly a fine 4th and 5th big combo, and even perhaps 3rd and 4th. But if either of them is the 2nd choice, using Self’s offensive approach, it ain’t happenin’.
-
If the heading for this thread had read, “The Day the Run for the National Title Died” most posters would not be lurching along like bouncing gliders, swooping in and out of luft. From the outset, the direction of this thread was pointed toward the winning of NCAA titles, not weekly contests or league crowns. Ergo, so many muddled conjectures regarding coaching and player development.
-
Truthfully, ive never thought this team was capable of winning the NC. Ever. From day. Before day 1. Although like everyone else im sure, i certainly have that hope. And im certainly in agreement with those that think we need to win it every year. Absoutely we do. Thats what this program must be. That has to be the goal. Every year. No arguments. No questions asked. The end. But im even more greedy. I wanna win everything else too along the way. But i am most certainly willing to trade regular season success for ncaa tourney success. No question about it. And as far as this team goes. I agree with @HighEliteMajor on this. The only shot at winning the NC. If Self is gonna rely on inside/out first and foremost. Cliff has to be the number 2 big. Or number 1 big maybe. Since Ellis is really not a big. But. It maybe and probably is already too late to develop Cliff enough for him to be become the player he’d have to become for that to happen. It may sound debbie downer. But hey. Reality bites. Doesnt mean im not still hoping and pulling for this group. Regardless of how Coach wants to play it
-
@cragarhawk Have to disagree with you. Regular season wins are fine. Winning the league is fine, even though it means very little, yes #1 seed in league tourney, but #2 might be a better bracket. I want final fours and NC’s. Give me that and sub par regular season is acceptable especially if it necessary to obtain the big ring.
-
@Gunman um… Seems like you agree to me
-
Here is a question for you…if you have sub-par regular seasons and don’t even win the conference, what are the chances of getting to the Final Four or winning the “big ring”?
Yes, I agree that the NCAA is structured so any team with a lucky run can win, but wouldn’t you agree that a good regular season showing and a Conference Title gives you a much better shot at a Final Four and the Title than a sub-par season? It surely seems that way to me.
IMHO, “sub-par” season and “Final Four” is and oxymoron, wouldn’t you agree?
-
We’ve also aluded to the B12 too. Let’s not forget the B12 is far far more difficult than all the other leagues. It’s really difficult to see just how B12/KU compares to the #1 and other #2 seeds. I think KU suffers from being a victim of their own league. Think if KU was in the other seeds’ leagues? KU would dominate all, but maybe UK. UK is the SEC, along with maybe LSU and possibly Arkansas. But in the end those teams aren’t playing in leagues where they are beat up every single game.
Here’s where the B12 factor will come into play this year. I believe the B12 will either wreak havoc after being in a really tough league or they will stink up the entire tourney. Hell, even our bottom two teams would be sitting possibly 2-3 in most leagues at this point.
Our coaching remains the x-factor too. I will or would really like to see Tubby, Barnes, Drew, The Mayor, Lil’ Jimmy Dickens in Stillwater, and Kruger Co match wits with the rest of the nation. Many will point to earlier match-ups, but we all know that every single B12 is so much better and competitive at this point in the season. I know they are better since beginning of the season as well. However, you can’t tell me UK is better now than they were at the beginning? UK was a team in the preseason, playing like they were playing as most are now playing toward the back stretch of the season. No malice against this team, but their wins are really subpar against some soft teams. Even their game against us was a bit soft. We were so green at #5. I can’t even believe we were #5 so early. We then plummeted to #10 after losing that game against UK.
I think UK is bound to lose at possibly the round of 32, and definitely the 16 and maybe the Elite 8. If they get past Elite 8, I’m afraid they’ll be crowned once again.
Many of you counted KU out early. Why? Some of you have said that you never expected a NC. Yet, they are one of favored teams to play in the NC game. Now whether they win the NC is a different story. UConn went in with a lineup similar to KU and won. They had a tenacious pg that willed them to the NC.
I’m convinced KU can and will go all the way until they lose. I will never bet against them so early. One thing at a time. Let’s focus on the B12 title and each game left, then look to B12 tourney. There’s plenty of time for the NCAA tourney.
BTW- KU really doesn’t have a choice but to win out right either. We can’t expect ISU to lose a game going forward. I hope this team and Self are not expecting ISU to lose. I’m expecting them to win the rest of their games, as we too need to win out against our remaining games. ISU isn’t expecting us to lose, but they will definitely be waiting for us to lose, so they can step in by default and share or worse win out right. Gawd, please NO sharing. RCJHKU
-
Being “fine” at anything is not ok w/me! How boring to watch and cheer on KU teams if it’s ok win or lose. I don’t like to lose at all. And if you flop in tourney, you have zero to be happy about! I want it all and it would be rather pointless to have ksu chat tomorrow ! Winning is fun!! Most of us are having fun cheering on our team, all the way thru-hopefully all the way!
-
Big 12 According to Pomeroy;
- 6 teams in the top 25 - 60%
- 7 teams in the top 30 - 70% (KU 11-3)
- 9 teams in the top 93 - 90%
Big 12 According to Sagarin:
- 6 teams in the top 25 - 60%
- 7 teams in the top 28 - 70% (KU 11-3)
- 9 teams in the top 81 - 90%
Other conferences as per Pomeroy (top team record)
- ACC - 5 teams in the top 30 - 33% (Virginia 13-1)
- Big - 10 4 teams in the top 30 -29% (Wisconsin 13-1)
- SEC - 2 teams in the top 30 - 14% (UK 14-0)
- PAC 12 - 2 teams in the top 30 - 17% (Arizona 12-2)
70% of the conference teams are ranked in the top 30…this means that fully 1/4 of the top 30 teams are Big 12 teams; this is frigging amazing. There is no question that from top to bottom the Big 12 is the strongest conference. The other conferences seem to have 1 or 2 dominant teams and then the quality drops.
-
@JayHawkFanToo Nimitz was a great admiral, but also he had the sledgehammer of US industrial might on his side. Japan’s 1941 A-rated navy died by attrition. When the 700+ crack naval aviators Japan used at Pearl Harbor gradually dwindled away as casualties, there were scant few replacements due to the very “elite-few” status and prolonged training syllabus. The 4 key naval battles of 1942 were ALL very close tactically/strategically, with the Japanese borderline winning 2 of them tactically, yet losing the same 2 strategically. Coral Sea, Midway, Santa Cruz, Eastern Solomons…fascinating reading about almost on-par carrier battles. By 1944, however, the “sledgehammer” of the USN was 15 large fleet carriers = total domination. The USN essentially continued their 15 carrier idea all the way thru the 80’s. Also, technological advances with stronger US aircraft, as well as the theoretical doctrine behind making robust (vs. the Japanese “light as possible” ) aircraft helped spell the end of Japanese naval airpower, and by consequence, their navy. The role of US submarines in the Pacific deserves mention as well. US subs achieved a chokehold of Japan and accounted for over 90% of Japan’s merchant marine being destroyed. Something the German U-boats failed to accomplish in 2 world wars. Fascinating war history… (Apologies for diverging from sports. I’ll blame @jaybate…)
-
@Gunman “I want final fours and NC’s. Give me that an sub par regular season is acceptable.”
Gunman, I know what you are saying, but a subpar regular season implies some fundamental faults within such a ‘subpar’ team…making it very, very unlikely they survive 4 games to get to an F4. Its almost mutually exclusive.
Problem is, you can also have an overall #1 seed like the MorrisHawks, who just had multiple fails in the same game (offense, defense, turnovers), which allowed VCU to upset them. There are no guarantees.
What I tell myself every season is: try to understand my team, learn its strengths, weaknesses, and idiosyncracies by the time March rolls around…and hope for the best. Bunch of 18-22yr olds is what it is…
-
Nicely done. Sometime you need the hammer but you also need to know how use it properly, which Nimitz did rather well. Nimitz was also one of the pioneers of submarine warfare and he directed the up fitting of diesels engines and eventually with Admiral Hyman Rickover they were the two key individuals in the development of the current nuclear fleet.
Enough history, back to sports.
-
@JayHawkFanToo Agree on all accounts.
-
The season doesn’t have to die if HCBS would start running some offense for the Fools Gold three point shot.
-
@HighEliteMajor I knew @jaybate-1.0 would love this post, lol–you used metaphors and referenced 60’s-70’s music.
-
Oh, yes, the USS Nimitz is formidable. And if I recall you know something about this sort of thing from experience.
@JayHawkFan
Too, thanks for the assist in recalling those additional aspects of Nimitz. You are so right. He is too often reduced to Midway. The broader picture of his accomplishment is vastly more important to our legacy, even if Midway were perhaps the most dramatically pivotal in isolation. The fact is war is a process, not events in isolation. There might have been another way to win the war had Midway gone the other way. But it is the long process of winning that enables us to endure as a great country, not just anyone single individual, or single action by a single individual. Still, I do like driving down any freeway named for him and thinking of him letting it all ride on those carriers once upon a time…and betting right. Rock Chalk!
Cue Anchors Away! and a Naval metaphor, because I am also fond of my US Navy, Marines, Army, Air Force and Coast Guard!!!
-
@JayHawkFanToo and @ralster…
NEVER ENOUGH HISTORY!!!
Thank you both for enriching my reading day with these recollections.
-
@JayHawkFanToo Thanks for the info. Despite the impressive data on B12, I have a question. Not beating on B12 (love our games, the best in the country), but how impressive were we last year in the tourney? How many survived the first or second week? ISU, KSU, WV all fell flat. Seriously, how many & what years have B12 dominated the tourney? I can’t recall, but was left wondering how good B12 really was last year and the year before. All said, I’m still banking on my MASON! That kid is a winner, no other words to describe the kid who scores 55 points to win a championship game! Hoping he’ll do that again & get us a W for NC! Ellis will get his, but am skeptical he’ll pout when the big boys tower over him. But, I’m optimistic he has learned to play over the footers with confidence! Now I go and pray!
-
@JayHawkFanToo izzo’s teams always lose more than they should in my estimation, but no one wants to play them in the tourney. Unlike Self, Izzo believes there is such a thing as a good loss!
-
The nature of the Tournament is such that any team can beat any other team; lets not forget that even traditionally good teams such a Duke get “Mercerized” often enough; KU is not alone in that regard.
The Big 12 has several teams including KU, OU, ISU, WVU, Baylor and even Texas and OSU that with good match-ups can make a deep run. The key is to have the right match-ups.
-
@JayHawkFanToo and no injuries, see KU and ISU.
-
I’ve sort of given up on seeing more development out of Cliff this year. It ain’t gonna happen.
But how about what he currently has to offer? His stat line clearly shows him as the choice in the post.
What scares me now is rust. Guys that are so inexperienced and undeveloped (like Cliff) can rust up in a single half of sitting on the bench. He totally needs game minutes just to establish any kind of flow. And in March?
I see a guy like Cliff making Self mad in the first half of a game in March so he only plays 4 minutes. Then the second half comes along and Self turns to Cliff and he goes in and plays horrible. He’s a guy that can rust quicker than paint can dry.
This is my biggest fear around Cliff from here on out. It’s too late to see much development in him now. But that doesn’t mean he can’t be a vital part of this team moving forward.
Here’s where I take one from the master:
-
I think Jamari plays a key role moving forward… just not in the way Self uses him.
Jamari should be “energy off the bench.”
Our other post player for most of the time moving forward should either be Cliff or be another guard. 4 out 1 in. But make that guard someone who can slash through the paint and score in the post. Or feed Perry in the paint to score. Or feed the ball back out for an uncontested 3.
I think Cliff’s biggest down side right now is his passing. It’s hard to make him a piece if he can’t pass effectively. Obviously, his defense is totally hit or miss, too.
-
…and Embiid. You are absolutely correct.
-
HEM, I think you were just 2 days off on the “title thread”. February 23rd was the day the season died.
