Dec 27 Headlines: Toledo still undefeated
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How luck is helping KU basketball’s defense so far … and Jaybate’s response in the comments.
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@Jesse_Newell & @jaybate : Both great reads and analyses. I lean towards the belief that it has more to do with who is getting fouled. With Embiid, Traylor, and Black leading the team in fouls it’s more than likely that Jaybate’s muscle ballers are the ones shooting more FTs. Usually said muscle ballers have poor FT%.
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@RockChalkinTexas Hey, I’m not having a problem editing. Can you refresh the page / close browser & repoen/ are you on a phone?
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@RockChalkinTexas. Fixed the numbering for you.
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@approx Tried all of the things you mentioned.
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Let’s see… we played well in our last couple of games… Now, we will have had some gym time, and a young team like ours can only benefit from that.
All the indications say we should hang a memorable loss on Toledo. But there are no guarantees. We’ve seen it so many times before; coming off plenty of rest and practice; our Jayhawks go ice cold!
I’m anxious to get these guys over from the COLD COLD COLD bracket to the WARM WARM WARM. Will this be the game that makes the difference?
I’m hopeful, but they’ll have to earn my confidence with solid play.
I’m hopeful we have a hungry team ready to chomp down and have a MAC-attack!
Rock Chalk!
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@approx Still can’t after doing everything you mentioned. Not on mobile. On my Computer at work SHHHH!
and I was trying to tell
@JayHawkFanToo THANKS for fixing the numbering.
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@RockChalkinTexas I just emailed your Boss and they told me to pass this on… They’re gonna need to go ahead and move you downstairs into storage B. They have some new people coming in, and they need all the space they can get. So if you could just go ahead and pack up your stuff and move it down there, that would be terrific, OK?
Oh, oh, and I almost forgot. Ahh, they’re also gonna need you to go ahead and come in on Sunday, too…
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@Kip_McSmithers HA HA HA. After 31 years with my boss don’t think that is EVER going to happen. He can’t type.
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@Kip_McSmithers Ding,ding, ding. We have a winner here. We aren’t 'lucky", we are fouling the right people. Mr. Newell, lucky would’ve been Frank staying in front of the Colorado guy as he launched the prayer. We can be characterized in lots of different ways, but lucky wouldn’t be an adjective that comes to mind for me.
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I am on board with the tired legs theory. Lots of good comments.
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“Over his last three games the junior has 18 assists and eight turnovers, and if he can get that ratio closer to 3-to-1 Kansas will be better for it.”
Solid comment, @RockChalkinTexas !
Exactly what we need!
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@KUSTEVE Hey Steve - Respect your opinion.
Don’t know if you saw this, but KSU is 11th in the nation in free-throw defense. The Wildcats’ offense is terrible, they have no transition game and about an NCAA average bench. So why is KSU’s free-throw defense good?
I think it gets back to my main point … this is most likely a random stat.
One final question: I’m setting the line for KU opponent free throws at 65.5 percent (62 percent is what opponents have shot so far; 69% is NCAA average). Are you taking the over or under?
I’ll take the over. If you want to take the under, I think it’d be a fun thing to track the rest of this year.
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This post is deleted!
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Excellent reads from the @Jesse_Newell and @jaybate posts on cjonline.com!
I was reading down the page, and before I reached Jaybate’s words about us tiring other team’s out, that was already percolating in my head, because random luck is easy to attribute to one or two games, but as the sample size grows, a pattern starts to appear.
I’m looking for a pattern, and I think I may have one.
Look at Jesse’s graphic showing the last 10 years of Jayhawk stats on opponent FT%.
I’m trying to piece together every team we had over the past 10 years… but it seems like there could be a relationship with the depth of our teams and our opponent’s FT%. I could be wrong, but it makes sense that the more depth we have, the more we substitute and displace PT over more players. In doing so, this impacts the freshness of our players, and that should have a reverse impact on our opponent’s freshness. This is all about our opponents’ energy level when they step to the line.
I believe another factor may be our M2M defense, and comparison to how many other D1 teams are running M2M. It feels like we are the anomaly this year because of the rules calling closer. Teams are playing more zone, not just with us, but with everyone. There are not so many coaches in America that are married to a M2M. I wonder… I wonder if our stat on being 6th nationally will even improve as the season progresses! I wonder… if it will be connected to how close games are called and how often our opposition runs into M2M? If refs (collectively) start allowing more contact, perhaps more teams will play M2M and we are no longer the anomaly. Teams get used to facing M2M, so they maintain a higher energy level during games. But if we remain the anomaly, teams aren’t used to facing M2M, and so it will tire them quicker than usual.
One more factor helping to tire our opponents this year; media hype. We’ve received so much hype, mostly based around Wiggins, that every team we play this year receives so much extra hype before we play. It’s just more chaos they have to deal with, more sleep they lose, and more energy they have to spend before the game ever starts. We get the “best shot” out of everyone we face this year, and that means they are super jacked up to play. That may mean they play inspired basketball, but at what eventual cost to their energy level?
I do believe this all relates to teams being tired.
So how can we exploit this moving forward?
Strategy for beating “tired” teams should be broken down into different time zones:
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Season - it seems that some teams get stronger through the year, while other teams tire as the season progresses. Maybe I’m being too broad here, and should say ‘players’ instead of ‘teams’ so when we scout future opponents we should study each player’s “estimated energy level.” We put more-aggressive defense on the “tired” players (who may be more-likely for TOs, too). If we foul them, we foul them, and we watch them brick FTs. Most players bricking FTs accept it as a slump for the game, and either get anxious or reduce their shooting. It’s a kind of “mental jinx.”
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Game - we should have plenty of substitutions during a game, and we should push tempo. By doing so, we take full advantage of all that depth we have. Run plenty of on and off ball screens. Normally, you don’t want to foul teams a lot in the second half, and I’m still not going to advise it now, but if we are considering a strategy based on opponent’s being tired, I’d say we should definitely avoid fouling them in the first half! There are two big reasons why we shouldn’t foul in the first half; first, our opponents have more energy and so are more likely to hit their FTs, second, we need to win the fouling wars and by having few fouls on our guys and more on opponents, we can use that as leverage to keep moving the foul wars in our direction. Players in foul trouble tend to play less aggressive and draw fewer fouls.
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Defense - on the defensive side we should continue to push our M2M. Opponents facing M2M get tired more on their offense than when they face zones (or at least, they should). Our guys need to pester and play tight, forcing opponents to burn more energy on offense. Players’ energy changes from moment to moment. When they have to use extra energy on bursts (more-likely when facing M2M) it takes them a minute or two to recoup some of what they spent. During that period, they are shooting FTs, and are more-likely to miss.
Consider that we have probably the best conditioning coach in the nation (Hudy). Fuse our conditioning with our depth, and we shouldn’t lose an energy competition with anyone this year. Perhaps the biggest advantage we have this year on our opponents is the amount of energy (as a team) we should bring to games… how we use it… and how we force opponents to use theirs!
If none of this makes sense… run continuously around a gym until you have to wedge your arms on your thighs when you stand. Now go shoot 10 FTs in a row and count how many go in!
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Toledo Rockets Team stats
No Name P H W Yr Hometown (previous school)
1 Jonathan Williams G 6-3 180 Fr. Southfield, MI (Southfield-Lathrup)
4 Justin Drummond G/F 6-4 187 Jr. Bowie, MD (Loyola (MD)) (Riverdale Baptist)
5 Rian Pearson G 6-4 190 Sr. Raytown, MO (UW-Green Bay) (South)
11 Josh Lemons G 6-0 175 So. Cincinnati, OH (La Salle)
15 Aubrey Williams F 6-7 215 RFr. Bowie, MD (IMG Academy (FL)) (St. Vincent Pallotti)
20 Julius Brown G 5-10 175 Jr. Markham, IL (Hillcrest)
22 Angel Aparicio G 6-5 190 So. Benicarlo, Spain (Lleo XIII)
24 J.D. Weatherspoon F 6-6 215 Jr. Columbus, OH (Ohio State) (Northland)
25 Jordan Lauf G 6-5 190 Fr. Napoleon, OH (Napoleon)
30 Donald Beatty G 6-3 195 Sr. Dayton, OH (Belmont)
33 Zach Garber C 6-9 225 Fr. Carey, OH (Vanlue)
43 Matt Smith F 6-7 225 Sr. Whitewright, TX (UW-Green Bay) (Whitewright)
53 Nathan Boothe C 6-9 250 So. Gurnee, IL (Warren Township)
Sorry guys I can’t edit and having hard time posting
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Here is a link toToledo stats…
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@Jesse Newell: this is what I finally got to post over on cjonline.com in response to your KSU info, which I thing tips the balance farther in your favor, but which may not achieve that beyond a reasonable doubt standard.
To wit:"One more thought on triggers of the FT Defense Phenomenon JNew, your driver of luck may explain some or all of the phenomenon, but so might mine. So consider this: if KSU’s strength of schedule were vastly weaker than KU’s, then KSU’s opponents should tend to be significantly worse than KU’s opponents at basketball skills such as shooting FTs. Or put conversely, KU’s opponents probably are better FT shooters. So: the dynamics I have proposed above might be driving down the FT% of KU’s opponents, while the lesser length and athleticism of KSU may not be driving down nearly as much the already weaker FT shooting of KSU’s weaker opponents. This hypothesis might also fit the data you present.
Just a thought."
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@approxinfinity Hey … I am not able to post on my computers. I am using my wife’s right now. For some reason I can reply on this one. When I hit reply, it just puts “Dec 27 Headlines: Toledo still undefeated” in the blue banner at the bottom, but no box to reply in. Same thing on other threads. Any thoughts?
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@HighEliteMajor Ugh. Try to hit ctrl+F5 in your browser for me would you? This forces a cache fresh. And if that doesn’t fix it replying thereafter, can you tell me what browser and version you’re using? If that doesn’t work I might have to revert, we can’t have you not able to post.
- testing editing existing post in firefox 21.0 – working.
- testing editing existing post in chrome 31.0.1650.63 m - working.
- testing editing existing post in IE 10.0.9200.16721
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testing reply in IE 10.0.9200.16721 – works.
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testing reply in chrome 31.0.1650.63 m - works.
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testing reply in firefox 21.0 - works.
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Guys, unless its a version or browser I’m not using, it seems like it would be a caching issue. If Ctrl+f5 (clearing cache) doesnt do the trick, can you let me know browser and version number (its either under help or about [Browser name] menu options for most browsers). I’m prefer not to revert as the performance seems to be better so far with the new version and they appear to have made some other fixes people have mentioned (I also like the solid white modal window for replies, feel its a lot nicer on the eyes), but if I can test with the browsers and versions you guys are using and reproduce the problem I could revert if necessary. Thanks for your patience. Should be straight soon.
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@approxinfinity - I use the google chrome version you noted (31.0.1650.63) on one computer and IE on the other. I tried the ctrl+F5 and it still did the same thing. If there’s anything else I can do on my end, just let me know. Thanks.
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I cannot post either
. Any ideas?
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Alright guys, I’ll revert. not sure. It’s bizarre to me. Doing so now
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Reply box opens but no submit or discard prompt display.
t.
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@globaljaybird try now? Ctrl+F5 and try please.
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Thanks for the revert approx.-that tiny phone is the schizz to post on. The white reply box would display & could type a message, but was no way to submit or discard the reply. F5/ctrl did not make any diff. Surely HEM & I are not the only ones affected?
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Ctrl/F5 now refreshes this page-did nothing for the other display.
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Thanks for the revert approx.-that tiny phone is the schizz to post on. The white reply box would display & could type a message, but was no way to submit or discard the reply. F5/ctrl did not make any diff. Surely HEM & I are not the only ones affected?
I’m not sure. I didn’t have any probs on desktop, but I didn’t try on my phone. Thought you guys were seeing the problem on desktop in specific. If it was on the phone I could try to upgrade my test site on my own time and see if I can reproduce on the phone.
So now, if you go to a thread and hit reply is everything working right with the modal?
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@approxinfinity Seems to be OK now to me. Reply display is as before-darker background. I use IE also but am not sure what release the phone or laptop is, maybe 7 or 8. Will upgrade the phone in about 6 weeks, but the Dell laptop is only about a year old. If I need to update the browser I can.
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@globaljaybird shouldn’t be necessary. Thanks a lot for the feedback, and glad we’re back to normal for you and hopefully for anyone else affected. I’ll lay low for a while on updates assuming we’re stable and see if I can reproduce some problems on my test site, and see what else gets updated on the nodebb repo.
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I usually don’t have much to offer so I try to make people laugh and one line I’ve used over the years on the live updates with @JesseNewell is when an opponent misses two FT’s I’ll quip, “nice free throw defense.” Someone usually gives me an LOL. Turns out I was right!
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@approxinfinity Thanks for staying on top of the heap bud, now get some ZZZZZZZZZZZZ’s for the big weekend push!
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This is the first time my post has worked. Glad you fixed it.
So happy to have Jaybate and others to read again. I really missed them.
I’m still very confused by how this site works after using LJW one for several years. Is a tutorial available?
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@tubertigertank Try going to the Q&A blogs and the Bugs Request section may help. That’s where we all started from. Welcome!
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@RockChalkinTexas Thanks for trying, but I don’t know where to find the Q & A blogs or Bugs Request. And every time I try to join the chats I don’t get in. Do I use my regular “tubertigertank” and my password for it?
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@tubertigertank I wrote up a post that summarizes how the board works for you – you can find it here : http://www.kubuckets.com/topic/387/how-this-board-works
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@Jesse Newell Sure, I’ll take under 65.5. I do need to warn you if we happen to play UNC in the NCAA tourney, it will be a lock for me. LOL. Ole Roy has yet another team that can’t shoot straight from the free throw line this year.
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@JayHawkFanToo I know they’re called the “Rockets”, but I mentally keep calling them the Toledo Mud Hens, which is the Triple A affiliate to the Detroit Tiggers. According to Kenpom, they are heavy on offense, not so much on defense. They come in as the 12th highest ranked offense in cbb, and the 239th best defense. I feel some thunder dunking run out jams coming our way Monday night. I feel 100 points are coming tomorrow for the good guys, so it will be worth the wait we’ve had to endure.
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All I can remember about Toledo is the double OT loss in football in 2006 and getting even at Memorial Stadium the next season, the magical 2007 season.
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Is the Toledo game one of the games that we will not be able to watch unless we subscribe to TW or Comcast?
I checked the TV guide listings for my cable provider (Surewest) and the game is not listed, as far as I can tell. It is supposed to be on ESPN3, which I get but as we all know, it gets blacked out in Kansas.
Looks like I might be cursing Zenger’s name one more time
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@approxinfinity Thanks for sharing the “How this board works.” Now the place I’m frustrated is getting into KU Buckets chat.
Is the chat room always available, or only at certain times? Do I use my user name in the “nickname” box? Do I erase the KU buckets? What in the world do I do with the key box?
Help!
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well the chatroom is always there but as far as I know no one uses it except during games some may. I haven’t been chatting recently anywhere because I prefer focusing on the games and Jesse Newell hosts well on cj online. But if you do want to use our chatroom you would replace the nickname text with your preferred nick and leave the #kubuckets in the channel textbox k and then hit start. Sometimes that doesn’t appear to load it up. If it hangs here refresh the page and the second time it should work.
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Thanks. I got it to work, but as you said, there was nobody there.
