Should Opponents Foul Doke Every Trip Down the Floor?
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I don’t see how a 10 Deep team could lose to KU, if it fouled Doke six times without the ball on the first possession (using six different players) to intentionally put KU in the 1&1 immediately, and then fouled Doke without the ball every possession thereafter.
It would only be down 3-4 at the end of KU’s first possession.
Then it would limit KU to shooting 1&1 the rest of the way.
Each possession it would foul Doke with a different player, so as to keep anyone player from getting fouled up till late in the game, when it had a big lead.
A 10 rotation team would likely be able to hold KU to an average of slightly < 1 point per possession for 50 possessions of Doke shooting 1&1. It would not have to guard any of KU’s great athleticism, so it could do this with its marginal players and even just walk-ons on the defensive end. It could foul Doke in transition in likely 1&1 areas of the floor. It could even afford a few intentional 2-shot calls.
At each FTA, the opponent inserts its best players for offensive possession. Each time Doke makes a FT, the opponent goes down and shoots a trey. Each time he misses the front end of the 1&1 it goes down and plays for the highest percentage 2 pt shot.
The net result is that the inferior opponent scores from 2 to 1 or 3 to 1 more points than KU at least half the possessions.
In a 60 possession game that would be more or less between 15 and 30 points more than KU even with inferior talent.
Whoa!!
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The refs would likely get sick if it and warn the other team before calling intentional fouls. But there is no guarantee.
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Karma was bad for kruger
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Ah, this thread seems unlocked now!!
Thx @approxinfinity
FWIW, I’m not picking on Doke. I am a huge fan of his.
Rather I was fascinated by the probability opportunity and vulnerability!
Naturally, this year KU could sub Doke out to counter the dastardly tactic.
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@jaybate-1-0 So, when we look at whether fouling Doke repeatedly is worth it, we need to look at KU’s average points per possession. In 2017, our points per possessions was 1.132. So, would Doke create more points per possession by shooting two free throws (ignoring that some might be one and ones)?
Dividing 1.132 by 2, because Doke can only get a max of two points in the possession, that would mean Doke would need to shoot 56.6% to equal 1.132 per possession.
Doke shot a putrid 41.3%. That would lead to a dead ugly .826 points per possession.
Of course, fouling Doke would likely increase the possessions per game, because presumably the opposition could not wait deep into the possession for fear that Marcus Garrett would drill a three (sorry, a little humor there). But you get the point.
That’s where it gets interesting.
We had 71.9 possessions per game. At .826 per possession, we’d average only 59.38 points if Doke was fouled each possession.
But let’s say our possessions increased by 14 … that would put us even with the NCAA leader in possessions at appx. 86.
14 x .826 would give us 11.5 points per game extra. And where would adding that to the 59.38 points if Doke was fouled each possession, where would that leave us?
We would score 70.88 points per game, which is incredibly within about a point of what we did last season 71.9.
The question, among many, is whether we’d increase that 14 possessions per game (or if it would increase more).
But that isn’t the entire story.
Of course, this can’t be discussed in a vacuum. And that’s where I think the strategy of fouling Doke every possession becomes a clear winner for the opposition – when our possessions go up, so does the opposition’s. We’d have to calculate the opposition’s increase in points and that seems to make this a loser. Our opposition is going to score better than .826 points per possession which is all that would be need to just keep the comparison a push. But only two out of 351 NCAA D-1 teams was below .826 points per possession. So we lose ground by increasing possessions.
Anyway, interesting item.
https://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-basketball/stat/offensive-efficiency
https://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-basketball/stat/possessions-per-game
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@HighEliteMajor Speaking of not in a vacuum there is also the aspect of who the opposition has committing these fouls. Certainly, they don’t want their starting post players fouling out. If they put in scrubs then those players will have to play some amount of offense. And of course, they can’t foul Doke literally every possession because of course Self will take him out at some point and as you point out with 80 possessions that would be 16 players fouling out.
All in all fouling Doke sometimes isn’t the worst idea, and it will happen late in games if Self leaves him in. They need to work on his free throw form for crying out loud.
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Is there some unwritten law that it’s poor sportsmanship to do that? Kruger sure seemed embarrassed about doing it and not very many teams did that to doke. I know Self did take him out in close games in the end, too. I’ve seen it happen in the nba a lot more than in college ball.
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@BShark Oh, absolutely, there is no way this could ever occur. Obviously not enough fouls to go around. But as an opposing coach, I’d have to consider the strategic fouling of Doke throughout the game. It could be hidden by just mugging the guy down low when he gets the ball when we are in the bonus. Just major physicality where no foul might be good too. Or restricting movement significantly w/o the ball. Would have you spread it around.
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Killer analysis.The offseason decompression is sharpening you up.
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What if the opponent tries to play KU straight up the first half, goes in the halftime tied or a few points down, and then fouls Doke every possession the second half? Then they might have enough fouls to give over only 20 minutes. And if Self responds by keeping Doke out the second half, well, then the opponent has achieved a considerable tactical advantage by forcing him out.
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It would be a substantial tactical advantage to force Doke out of the game, especially if Silvio does not play this season.
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Dokes going to be better so don’t sweat it!
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#AskCrims
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@jaybate-1.0 Even more precisely, simply every possession in the last 10 minutes? If you’re a lesser team and want to force the action, who could argue with that strategy?
Something tells me DeSousa and Dedric together might be an incredible combo. Doke is the pure center advantage that others don’t have. But I’m not worried about him being minimized in certain situations. But you’re right, if DeSousa isn’t eligible, that’s another issue.
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@HighEliteMajor There are definitely enough post options that it’s okay if Doke has to be taken out in some circumstances. Even w/o Silvio imo. Self has a lot of tools in the box this year, will be interesting to see how he uses them. He basically had zero choices to make the last two seasons and the last season he had a lot of options I disagreed with some of the choices he made.
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@jaybate-1-0 wasn’t sure who locked it in the first place. Saw no record of a foul
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The ability of an opponent to resort to this tactic at any moment after half time is what concerns me so much…if we don’t have Silvio.
20 to go.
10 to go.
5 to go.
It would make it especially tough for KU to pull one of KU’s astonishing comebacks it does once or twice a season. Those comebacks are part of “who we are” in Self Ball. Those comebacks are part of why KU players are so resilient against hardship. They never give up, because they know they happen with Self defense.
Kruger just did it a couple plays. But it worked. Others should try it longer.
Another application of this would be to stop a three point shooting team dead in its tracks—to reduce it to a FT shooting team. Even a good FT shooting team is easier to beat than a good three point shooting team. Michigan would surely have gotten back in the game with Nova, and perhaps have beaten Nova, if they had just put Nova on the line with 20 to go, even 40 to go. Nova beat people with the trey—with 3>2. Turn 3>2 into 1<3 and Nova loses.
If 3>2 is the unfair advantage, take the advantage from them.
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approxinfinity said:
@jaybate-1-0 wasn’t sure who locked it in the first place. Saw no record of a foul
Glad to hear it Super Admin!!!
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@approxinfinity A concerned KU fan no doubt! Freaked out about the inside info leaking.
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I’m guessing a fat finger, quite possibly my own.
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@HighEliteMajor and @BShark touched on some of the stuff I was gonna say before I noticed the thread was unlocked. One other thing to think about is Doke isn’t gonna play the full game probably will average in the 20-25 MPG range. @approxinfinity Its all good, if I had a dollar for everytime I hit the wrong button the football stadium would be named after me lol. I personally hate the break away fouls that you see so much in the nba, a simple rule that makes it to where the team that was fouled gets one FT and the ball back would fix that instantly. I think intentional fouls to send the other team to the line should only happen in the last 2 minutes. One of my biggest pet peeves of baseball is how a player can be repeatedly walked intentionally, it’s kinda chicken to me. I think they need a rule where a team is given one per game, that’s it.
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@kjayhawks that sounds unenforceable to me?
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@kjayhawks Kruger looked like he felt like a chicken s### for doing it. He knew that was the only way to beat us. I really feel a lot different about him after the way he used team Trae young and sacrificed his “ou team” for him. We’ve seen plenty of talented of big 12 players, Kevin Durant etc and I’ve never seen them used in that selfish way.
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@approxinfinity I talking about a play where the guy has open floor in front of him and a player grabs him from behind to stop an open dunk in the NBA. That’s when the one shot plus ball should be enforced.
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Fouling Doke every time down the floor isn’t possible. With over 80 trips up and down the floor (more possessions due to the fouling), every player on the opposing team would foul out.
What a team could do is foul Doke whenever he caught the ball inside if they were already in the bonus, or on any possession when they trailed by more than three. Effectively, this would mean that Doke would not ever be able to make a post move once the team was in the bonus and KU wouldn’t get to run offensive possessions if they led by more than a single possession.
This could be executed fairly effectively without everyone on the team fouling out, as it would only require 5-7 additional fouls (basically just one more player). I doubt that any coach would attempt to do this unless they were completely overmatched inside, but I could see a team doing this if they didn’t have any true post players.
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Doke has someone to push him to improve or he will not be playing. There is another 5 star big who will be chomping at the bit for pt. I think we see huge improvement in Doke this year.
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The “Poke a Doke” strategy is something teams can try at the end of games because it can impact scoring for a few plays.
To use a strategy like this early in a game adds problems to the team trying it.
What it does quickly is put us in the bonus. So Doke doesn’t shoot well from the line. At a certain point we pull him, like when we make it into the bonus, especially the double bonus. Now, with Doke on the bench, our five players on the court play very aggressive offense.
I don’t know many coaches that want to have their opponent in the double bonus early in a game. So for whatever point gain they make early with Doke pitching bricks, it gets made up later with double-bonus FTs shot by more proficient players.
Imagine going from a strategy of “foul Doke immediately” to “don’t foul anyone!” There is a big shift that will take place in the game once Doke sits on the bench.
A real problem with “Poke a Doke” for this coming year is that we have plenty of post depth, especially if Silvio is eligible (most likely, he will be). So we can live with Doke on the bench.
I don’t really see the advantage of this strategy early in games, but if used, what happens if Doke actually sinks a decent percentage of FTs?
Last… from a motivational perspective… what does that say to the players if their own coach would rather have a player from the other team decide the outcome from the line versus his own players just going out an winning the game by themselves?
I’ve never experienced playing in one of these games where a player is intentionally hacked with this strategy, but I can’t imagine it’s a fun game to play in and it would feel demoralizing to be the team hacking!
