Did we draw the toughest bracket?
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@globaljaybird Easten Kentucky is a guard laden and extremely small team that plays really bad D. They CAN shoot the 3 ball, but I don’t think they can prevent us from rebounding and outscoring them in the paint. Get them to speed up, get them to take quick shots, attack them off the dribble, and we’ll run them out of the building. They’re basically a worse version of Toledo. But yeah, first things first.
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@konkeyDong I think it is a pretty difficult path for us. Given your re-phrase, I take that to mean if you put us as the 2 in any other region. In our region, if we draw the better seed in every match-up, our path is New Mexico, Syracuse, Florida. Pretty tough. I had told @Crimsonorblue22 yesterday that I really didn’t want to have to go through Florida just to get to the Final 4, but that’s what happened. I’m not too scared of Syracuse at the 3. I was more worried we’d draw Louisville or Michigan St., who ended up being 4s. I think in this regard, a couple of the 1 seeds (WSU in particular) might have a tougher path than we do. I think at the 7 we were fortunate not to draw Oregon, whom I consider the most difficult of the 7s.
My nightmare scenario is that we bow out before Embiid comes back and we’re left to wonder from now until the end of time what would have happened if we just could have made it to the second weekend.
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As others are pointing out the Midwest is the stuff of nightmares. It’s also the stuff of potentially juicy matchups. Louisville-Kentucky sweet 16 game or Louisville-Wichita rematch. Potential of KState-WSU in the 2nd round is delicious too. I think Kentucky-WSU is an intriguing matchup.
As for our draw, I like it up to the sweet 16 and then wowsa, Syracuse and Florida, in Orlando. Of course a smackdown in early December doesn’t always translate to a smackdown in late March, but Florida has gone up and we’ve gone down since then. Syracuse and KU don’t have a very good history for KU fans, but I don’t really need to go there now.
It’s always good to be highly regarded of course and other teams will have our name circled. It’s a sign of respect for our program.
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My concern is probably having to face New Mexico, whom most of the “experts” think should have been higher than a 7, without Joel.
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I can’t believe what I’m hearing (reading). I’m a fairly pessimistic KU fan and I’m confident that we can easily make the Sweet 16.
I don’t think we should have trouble with the first game as Eastern Kentucky has MAJOR weaknesses where we have strengths. They foul uncontrollably while we are good at getting to the line. They can’t guard inside and we are a top 10 team in interior scoring. The only way this team beats us is if they shoot over 50% from the three point line, and don’t foul…at all. I don’t see that happening.
I won’t disagree UNM is a tough draw, but what do you want? You play tough teams in the tournament. It’s just reality. That being said, you’re telling me that UNM is better than they were in December, well, so are we. I personally thought we played poorly against UNM and we beat them by 20. I think we’ll be fine as long as we don’t get out to a very sluggish start and let UNM jump out to a lead that they protect with outside shooting. UNM isn’t a very good offensive team either, so I think we’ll be fine. One other thing to note, UNM isn’t very good offensively, and they’ve played weak competition, who’s to say they for sure win against Stanford? Probably not a likely outcome, but it could happen. The same thing could be said for UF against UCLA. Have faith!
Past that, all bets are off. We become a new team in the Sweet 16. With Embiid back, we are a different animal. At this point, who cares about Florida or Syracuse. Nobody knows if they’ll even be waiting for us.
I won’t lie I was kinda pissed we didn’t get the 2-seed in the MW…until I saw the bracket. No. Thanks. I like the expression from @wissoxfan83, stuff of nightmares. I’ve been saying all season long that WSU might not even get to the Sweet 16, but to see how likely it is…it’s kind of surreal. For everyone complaining about drawing UNM in the second game, honestly tell me you’d rather play UK or KSU in the second round. No thanks.
Have some faith KU fans. Personally, I think this sets up pretty nicely for us.
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I am concerned about Eastern Kentucky (somewhat). I look at them like Iowa St (lite). They play 6, all capable 3 point shooters. Not very big, so will spread the court. Their 6th man shoots the 3 over 40%. AND they have a +6.5 turnover margin.
We need to take the ball at them at all times, and get them fouled up. If we play soft on the perimeter, turn the ball over, and try to outshoot them from the perimeter, they will likely get 3’s to our 2’s .
We need Wiggins and Tharpe and Mason and Ellis to DRIVE, DRIVE, DRIVE. Let Traylor and Black clean up the mess.
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I saw Stanford play Washington this season and, based on what I saw, I think we could handle them, but they have a very good point guard and some quick size inside. Every bit as good as Tharpe on a good day.
If we get to the second round, Stanford is a completely different team to prepare for compared to New Mexico.
I agree with those that say that the absence of Embiid is key against UNM. Embiid helps neutralize their size.
Pick your poison btwn Stanford and UNM: which weakness would you like to see tested?
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Past that, all bets are off. We become a new team in the Sweet 16. With Embiid back, we are a different animal. At this point, who cares about Florida or Syracuse. Nobody knows if they’ll even be waiting for us.
I won’t lie I was kinda pissed we didn’t get the 2-seed in the MW…until I saw the bracket. No. Thanks. I like the expression from @wissoxfan83, stuff of nightmares. I’ve been saying all season long that WSU might not even get to the Sweet 16, but to see how likely it is…it’s kind of surreal. For everyone complaining about drawing UNM in the second game, honestly tell me you’d rather play UK or KSU in the second round. No thanks.
Have some faith KU fans. Personally, I think this sets up pretty nicely for us.
I can tell you I’d honestly rather have KSU or UK as a round of 32 opponent. Cauley Stein is the exact sort of player that Black can handle. He’s big, but he doesn’t really have a back to the basket game, you can foul him and he won’t make you pay very often on the stripe, he doesn’t put the ball on the floor, etc. We don’t really have anyone for Randle without JoJo, unless you’re willing to make Wigs guard him and put Ellis on the perimeter, but I don’t like that idea. Instead, double team Randle and force UK to make jump shots. They aren’t very good at it. On the flip side, Randle plays terrible D. He’s probably the best rebounder in the NCAA, but he gives zero effort on D most of the time, so I have no doubt we could just take it directly to him every time. High screen to get Cauly Stein out of the paint, then attack Randle off the bounce. KSU needed all of their juice to eek out a win against us at their place without Embiid. On a semi-neutral court, I’d take us every time.
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@MoonwalkMafia Right there with you on the Midwest – i do not have envy for that region any more!
South is probably 2nd in strength. When I saw the teams, my thought was “it could have been worse.”
The committee didn’t do us any favors, but I don’t think it messed with us like they did a few others (Louisville…)
Fair enough.
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@konkeyDong LOL. Thank you for the laugh. I got a kick out of the hand wringing. Oh ye of little faith! The committee did us a great favor with this bracket, imo. New Mexico might be the slowest team we’ve played this year. Their point guard couldn’t get by Naadir if they installed jets on his legs. Kirk is a load, well so is Tarik Black. They aren’t a great scoring team, and they have no one that can stop Wigs. They are scrappy, but we’ve already played them once this year, and we’ll win. Then, if Syracuse doesn’t circle the drain completely( they have been terrible down the stretch), then we have an entire week, with Embiid, to get ready for their zone. Beautiful set up. Give Coach a week, and he’ll throttle that zone. THEN, we take on a Florida team that we’ve already played once this year, so we know what they’re going to throw at us on the short hop game ( 2 days later). Couldn’t set up a better scenario for us. How utterly lucky we are to have 2 teams we’ve played this season. I think we have one of the least difficult paths in the whole tournament. I don’t fear Florida. Have some faith - we’re going to make the Final Four!
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Two more observations:
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In previous years, the committee has said it tries to avoid the possibility of teams that have already played each other meeting in the first couple of rounds. Obviously, not so much this year with KU and UNM
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St. Loius is good for fans, but the regionals are in Memphis. Is that good for Tarik? He should be very comfortable on that floor.
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@KUSTEVE While I appreciate the bravado, Cuse, VCU, and UF all press and turn you over. Turning the ball over is basically what this team does best. And I’ll not be convinced that Black can defend Kirk in the post until I see it. Bairstow will probably have his way, but Ellis will too, so I consider that a wash. It’s true that they don’t have the best guard play, but our point guard isn’t exactly elite either. I don’t think we’ll be blowing the doors off them in the rematch, but I do think it’s very winnable. Beating UF means having JoJo back in full force and Tharpe playing the game of his career. I don’t have faith in those things, but I do have hope. And if there is a coach that can thread the needle here, I think Self is that guy. Anyway, I do hope you’re right and I’m wrong.
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@bskeet The beauty of this is both 2nd games we play would conceivably against teams we’ve already played, if seeding holds up.
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@konkeyDong The beauty of this bracket are both of the short hop games are against teams we’ve already scouted, and played. That is vital for a young team. I can’t remember any game this year where Cuse has used the press, btw. Maybe when they were losing at the end of the game. My gosh, Cuse collapsed down the stretch. Nothing to fear from them. VCU could only face us if we were in the regional final, and I would prefer to play them over Florida, who does press. Until you beat it. We have played a murderer’s row schedule. We lost at 6 to Florida on their home court, so it’s not like we can’t play against them. That isn’t bravado. Yes, it would be nice to have the feeling we’re going to blow out every opponent, but I believe in this team, and our coach. We’ll be playing for big stakes this year.
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KU beat Florida by 9 points in the second half after falling way behind in the first half by starting 4 very green freshmen. After watching UK almost beat Florida, it showed that Florida, like any other team is vulnerable to a good game plan. If we play them, particularly with Embiid back, I like our chances.
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@JayHawkFanToo This is what people have to understand. KU had about 20 unforced turnovers and it looked like they put butter on the ball yet still lost by 6 at Florida. Like you said, no team is unbeatable, which includes Florida.
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Wichita State?
Looks like the Committee was sending a message to Wichita State saying…you think you are that good? Prove it.
If WSU can get through the gauntlet, then they truly deserve all the accolades.
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The more I look at the top 4 of the regions, the more I think Midwest and South are pretty comparable… East and West are a bit easier, but I’m going to say it – I think the committee did a pretty decent job.
Not thrilled they left SMU out, and yeah, Louisville is probably a 3 or maybe 2 seed… but I can understand the logic for the teams and their placements.
This year, it seems pretty topsy-turvy among the top 12 teams. The two most consistent teams, Florida and Wichita State. have question marks… And all the rest have had their moment.
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Yes.
Indubitably.
What makes a region difficult is not the total number of tough teams, because you can never play more than four because everyone knocks everyone else out for you.
What makes a bracket tough is how good the four you have to play are.
Syracuse and Florida are who we have to play once the going gets tough.
Syracuse is a tough out for a team without an 40% trey ballers.
Florida is a tough team with a time tested coach with two rings.
No other bracket has two tougher teams IMHO, plus, us of course.
But…
Ad astra per aspera…
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I’m happy with UNM for the second game when considering who WSU has in their second game.
Kentucky would annihilate us without JoJo.
Come on, people… you aren’t excited to have a shot at Syracuse? Really?
I’m praying for that game!
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@drgnslayr I wish our players could see all of our own fans that doubt them. I think it would motivate them. Our draw isn’t as tough as our schedule we just completed. I honestly think we won’t be playing Syracuse, as I see Ohio St winning their match up with Cuse. Overall, a very favorable draw until we face Florida. So, we win one very tough game, and we make it to the Final Four. Can’t argue with that.
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" I wish our players could see all of our own fans that doubt them. I think it would motivate them."
Anything to get them cranked up!
Mannnnnn… I was Syracuse this year!
If we can just get to 'Cuse and give them a good pounding, I will be thrilled with our entire year!
I’d hate to be in Izzo’s bracket. I’m going along with mainstream media on this one… Izzo’s team looks like the toughest out! Better than Florida if they stay healthy.
But… everything changes in a millisecond in March…
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I agree with your assessment of the brackets. Having to go through Syracuse and Florida will not be easy, They are the current and previous #1 ranked teams; not an easy feat.
I saw that Coach K went on rant yesterday about including NC State and putting down the A10 conference. It was arrogant, wholly uncalled for and will not make him friends. Let’s face it, other than the 4 top teams, there is not much more in the ACC. There has been talk that this was one of the reason NC State, a wholly undeserving team. made it in at the expense of SMU, a much more deserving team. such is College BBall.
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@JayHawkFanToo Yeah, no disrespect to WSU, but they honestly didn’t have much in terms of competition all year. They are good, no doubt. The Shox are living in lala land if they think they will get through that battle tested bracket.
If I were a Shocker, I’d be really concerned. Yet, they will start on their schedule last year and how they played a good L’ville in the F4 and will do it again. They are playing arguably several L’ville’s as good, if not better than L’ville last year. The Shox need to wake up and live reality. The ride is coming to an abrupt stop at any game now. They danced through the MVC, but this isn’t the MVC. All the same, I mean no ill-will and good luck to the Shox, they’ll need it. I hope KU will play as well and show their real ability. I’d like at least a F4, if not a NC game. KU is arguably the most battle tested of any team and have some pretty nasty scars too. It’s time to step up or shut-up.
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@JayHawkFanToo I really think there may be something wrong with K. He’s not acting right since that little episode where he almost blacked out. I don’t think he’s quite right physically.
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These brackets are difficult because teams that should win are not locks to win. I can see some early exits, but it’s hard to complete a bracket with certainty. I’ve reviewed the brackets several times today and keep coming up with different outcomes. It’s wide open. I have no idea. It’s madness I tell you, MADNESS.
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@jaybate 1.0 Cuse has the biggest chip on their shoulder and the biggest monkey. They have so much to prove. They will play angry and are a dangerous team.
I would love for ksu to knock uk out. ISU will take care of some business. BU has a pretty tough bracket too. Texas has dook in their bracket which means they will play dook and the officials. OSU and OU are in the same bracket, with a chance to play each other deeper into the tourney. I’d love to see osu knock zona out. Baylor, Creighton, SDSU, OU, OSU, Zags, zona…all tough. The committee did a really good job with each bracket. I don’t see any team having a cake walk. As always and true to form, Izzo has msu playing at the right time.
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We don’t have the worst road, honestly. We have the toughest 1 seed, but its not brutal, honestly. That Midwest bracket is ridiculous. You figure that we were either the third or fourth 2 seed and it seems like the committee slotted us correctly.
I don’t see Wichita State surviving their bracket. I really don’t see them getting through both Kentucky and Louisville.
Toughest top half of the bracket (1-16, 8-9, 4-13, 5-12) is easily Midwest with WSU, Kentucky, Louisville and SLU. I doubt WSU wants a rematch with SLU, but I wouldn’t be itching to play the defending champs or UK right now.
Easiest top half - Probably South. There isn’t really another scary team other than Florida. UCLA is solid, but not special. VCU is a tough style to prep for, but UF should have a week to get ready for them. The West isn’t too bad because UA matches up very well with undersized Oklahoma State and nobody should be afraid of OU. SDSU has offensive issues.
Toughest bottom half - either South or Midwest. South has KU, Syracuse, Ohio State and New Mexico. Midwest has Michigan, Duke, UMass and Texas. I give a slight edge to the South, but just barely.
Easiest bottom half - West. Not even close. It’s pretty wide open, honestly. Wisconsin isn’t the scariest 2 seed, Creighton is as vulnerable as any 3, and Baylor is their 6. The bottom of the West is wide open, which means if Arizona makes it through their half, they should be in the FF without much problem.
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@jaybate 1.0-For what it’s worth, I just listened To Ken Pomeroy on the radio say unless you’re in the Midwest bracket, you got a good draw. Now we’ll see what WSU is made of…
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Florida is the current #1 ranked team and Syracuse was the previous #1 ranked team. This is quite different than Kentucky which was also ranked #1 but it was base solely on pre-season hype and after they lost to MSU, they dropped and continued to drop and never quite made back; same thing with Ohio State that went from #2 at one point to not ranked.
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I say the Midwest is toughest because they have the toughest top half of the bracket and either the toughest or second toughest bottom half. Midwest has Wichita State, UK, Louisville, SLU, Michigan, Duke, UMass and Texas. That’s just a brutal draw. Several people were saying before brackets came out that WSU, Louisville, Michigan or Duke could be Final Four teams. They’re all in the same region. The top 4 seeds are all considered legit Final Four contenders.
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Again, the toughest bracket is rarely the one with the most good teams in it.
The toughest bracket is the one with two of the five best teams in it that are not upset that you have to play.
The toughest bracket is the one that guaranties you have to play the best teams in the country in the bracket even to make it to the Final Four.
In KU’s bracket, because of the lesser teams in the bracket, KU almost certainly has to play beat Syracuse and Florida, the two best teams in the tournament outside of Arizona and Virginia, which are in separate brackets; this means KU is in the toughest bracket to get out of. It would have been way better off in the Midwest. WSU is the weakest of the good teams in the tournament. And the other teams are going to upset each other up so that which ever team survives it will likely only have had to beat 1 of the top 5, and maybe none of the top five teams in the country.
Again, it is actually easier to win a bracket filled with the most number of good teams, because in that kind of bracket, you get the greatest chance of the best teams in the bracket being upset. In turn, that means you probably won’t have to face the two best teams in the bracket to win it, usually just one.
I know this seems somewhat counterintuitive, but I learned this from a good basketball man a long, long time ago.
It doesn’t matter if you have to play a very good team in the second game, if you then get to play the teams that upset the best teams. Yours is a vastly easier path than the team that has two easy games followed by two games with the two of the best four, or five teams in the country that happened to get seeded in your bracket.
The toughest bracket to survive is almost never the one with the most good teams. It is the one with say the two best teams in the country and a bunch of lesser teams that make the two best teams least likely to be upset, and so sharply increase the odds of you having to meet and beat them.
Almost certainly one, or both, of the best teams in the Midwest bracket will be upset before anyone has to beat both of them, because of how many good teams there.
KU is going to have to beat Syracuse and Florida to survive. The probability is that it doesn’t get tougher than that to get to the Final Four in any other region.
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@justanotherfan if you take the names out and put the records, SOS, etc, would we still think Midwest is toughest?
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Good question. I would say its 50/50.
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@jaybate 1.0
“In KU’s bracket, because of the lesser teams in the bracket, KU almost certainly has to play beat Syracuse and Florida, the two best teams in the tournament outside of Arizona and Virginia, which are in separate brackets; this means KU is in the toughest bracket to get out of. It would have been way better off in the Midwest. WSU is the weakest of the good teams in the tournament. And the other teams are going to upset each other up so that which ever team survives it will likely only have had to beat 1 of the top 5, and maybe none of the top five teams in the country.”
First… I think you are forgetting someone. Starts with an “I” and ends with an “O.” His favorite color is green. He’s short. And he knows how to get to the Final Four. He has finally got his team healthy.
I-Z-Z-O-!
Syracuse is good, Florida is very good, but a healthy Michigan State is great!
If we play like we are capable of playing… and we get JoJo back… we may be the only team capable of beating MSU… and it has to be on the right night.
That is my opinion… you can take it to the market and see if they give you 10 cents off on a watermelon.
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@jaybate 1.0
I would respectfully disagree.
Here’s the thing - in the midwest, WSU almost certainly will have to go through UK and either Louisville or SLU just to get to the E8. KU, on the other hand, may draw a team like Stanford or New Mexico, and follow that up with Syracuse or Ohio State. I’d say right now I’d prefer KU’s road to WSU’s.
In the tournament, you can only play your A game once or twice. The rest of the nights, you’re depending on your B+ game to get you through. Can your B+ game get you through UK, then Louisville, then Duke? If you have to play your A game just to get by Louisville in the S16, do you have anything left for Duke or Michigan two days later? The thing about that is in the Midwest, no matter who advances, it’s going to be a very good team - undefeated WSU, maybe the most talent in UK, defending champ Louisville, Big 10 champ Michigan, ACC runner up Duke… you get my point. You avoid fighting a bear, but end up in a cage with a tiger. You escape the tiger to fight a gorilla. You beat the gorilla, but now you have a lion in your path. It just doesn’t get easier in the Midwest.
In the South, if Florida or Syracuse loses, the path for KU opens up pretty wide. An upset may be more unlikely, but the overall strength of the region is more directly tied to three teams, so if any one of them is eliminated, the region gets really weak, particularly if the Gators lose because there isn’t another top notch team in the top half of the bracket.
It’s the same reason I tabbed the West as so easy in the bottom half. There’s really not another high level team out in the West region. Put it this way - I wouldn’t be shocked to see Baylor in the E8. Yes, Arizona is one of the best teams, but saying the region is strong because the strongest team will advance is flawed, at least to me.
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I agree… the Midwest is toughest because all those teams are very capable of winning it all, and a team like WSU has a murderous path to a National Championship.
Let’s face facts… if that was us sitting in WSU’s spot we would all be crying foul! And we didn’t nail a 1 seed… we are a 2 and it would still be a crime. Come on… compare UNM to UK… it isn’t even a comparison.
But I would rather be anywhere than in Izzo’s top east bracket, just because I see them as the team to beat, period. MSU only has to clear teams like UVA and Vill to make it to the Final Four. That is the easiest bracket for MSU, and the toughest for anyone else. Barring injuries and horrible luck, MSU is almost a shoe-in to make the Final Four!
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One game I’m psyched to see (if it works out) is Iowa State vs Villanova. That promises to be one very scrappy game!
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Oh, I hate it when you respectfully disagree, because then you are almost always right!
We agree that you bring your A game for no more than one of the games in a two game set. And you try to make it through the first round with you B game.
We agree that the West is an easy one, because it lacks two teams the caliber of Florida and Syracuse (Note: I know you’re not high on Syrxcuse, but I am), plus a third one the caliber of KU, if Embiid gets back 90%.
But the Midwest lacks a team as good as Florida, and maybe even as good as Syracuse. WSU is not the caliber of Syracuse and Florida in my opinion. And neither are all the other very good clubs. Basically, all the other good clubs in the Midwest are a little better than KU without Embiid. The midwest would have been tougher for KU to make it through the first two games, but the South is going to be much tougher to make ti through the second two.
My point remains that Syracuse and Florida aren’t going to get beat. KU is going to have to beat both. The hardest teams to beat with your B+ games are the best teams. Since Syracuse and Florida are certain to advance, because there is only one other good team in the bracket–KU, KU has to play its A game twice in a row, because there is no one else good enough to upset Syracuse and Florida.
But here is how I feel about these disagreements with you.
Usually, you turn out to be right.
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Nova and ISU. Agreed, that one is going to make use of x, y, and z axes, and every manner of scoring, and some show downs between players that don’t back down. Scrappy for sure.
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Let’s face facts… if that was us sitting in WSU’s spot we would all be crying foul! And we didn’t nail a 1 seed… we are a 2 and it would still be a crime. Come on… compare UNM to UK… it isn’t even a comparison.
UNM vs UK Comparison:
AP Poll
No. 17 UNM
No. 28 UK
Coaches Poll
No. 17 UNM
No. 22 UK
ESPN Power Rankings
No. 20 UNM
UK Not listed in top 32
NCAA RPI
No. 2 UNM
No. 17 UK
It would seem that UNM is the better team, don’t you think? Just saying…
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@JayHawkFanToo sure is! Why does cal think he got screwed where should he be?
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He is trying to mask how much UK has underperformed. He was supposed to have the best incoming class of all time; however, KU’s freshmen have clearly outperformed UK’s.
I always thought that UK’s class was over hyped and full of big names but KU’s class was better overall; looks likes it has turned out this way.
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@drgnslayr Michigan St isn’t the same team if they can’t get runouts. Their offense reminds me of Roy’s offense, who were better in transition than the half court game. Their plan of attack worked really well in the Big 10, but if you match them up against a more athletic teams, and make them play a half court game, I think they can be had.
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If the season was a month longer, Kentucky would crush everyone.
They are slowly getting things figured out being the youngest team in college basketball. With Cal only going after OADs every year and filling the team with freshmen, it is always a race for them to start playing better basketball by the end. Of course, it is the same thing for everyone, but they have the potential to leap up quickly. We are the same. We keep waiting for Andrew, Wayne and JoJo to figure out the game and completely dominate it. Like… what if Andrew gets hot and starts pumping in 30-40 every night? And JoJo stops leaving his feet completely on the shot fakes? And Wayne realizes how effective he can be if he just pushes every night to drive the ball a bit more to help create spacing for his 3 shot? And all of them figure out how to play team defense? Imagine if we had another month to prepare for March?
Did you guys see Kentucky play Florida in the SEC Championship (loss by 1)? UNM would have been smoked like an oscar meyer on the grill if they play Florida.
Just look at the match ups… look how we match up with Kentucky… then UNM. Polls don’t tell everything. We all know at any moment Kentucky might figure out how to dominate. UNM has reached their ceiling.
Being my own devil’s advocate on this one… Kentucky is capable of falling down quickly. We have similarities… which team will show up?
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I agree with you to a point. I think if the season were a month longer, UK would find their way back into the top 10, maybe top 5. They just have so much more of a ceiling than everybody else.
I definitely agree with you that a team like UNM has peaked. Look at the other 7-10 seeds - Colorado, Pittsburgh, Gonzaga, UConn, St. Joes, Arizona State, Texas, Oregon, BYU, K-State, Stanford, New Mexico, Memphis, George Washington. Those are all teams that, given their talent level, you would expect in that range. Then there’s Kentucky and Oklahoma State. Much, much more talented than your standard issue 7-10 seed.
And that’s the worry with UK and to some extent OSU. They have guys that can dominate a game - not one guy - guys. UK has both Harrison’s, Young and Randle that can all just take over a game. OSU has Smart and Brown and Nash. Most 7-10’s are like K-State or BYU. They are a pretty solid team, or they have one standout guy.
OSU and UK have been a mess at various times this year, but I wouldn’t want them in a one and out tournament because they could have a couple guys go off on you and that’s your season.
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And who knows? Maybe Kentucky looks past the purple kitties and gets spanked!
We can’t be too critical on Kentucky… we are in a similar boat. We are counting on our freshmen continuing to develop and to remain poised throughout the tournament. Pretty big expectations we have!
Oklahoma State can be scary… so can Iowa State. But I hold them to the golden rule; “Offense wins games, defense wins Championships!” Both of these teams lack defensive post presence. Either of these teams could get red hot now and go on a big run and end up in the Final Four… but they will have to be red hot from the field!
Then what about teams like Texas and Baylor? Those are two hot and cold teams that have better post presence, especially on defense.
At this time of year I look at two things that can drive up my “scary meter” about the competition: proven defensive proficiency (developed over the season)… and current hotness on offense! Either one of those areas can win a game or games (against anyone). And if you put the two areas together, you have a team that is almost impossible to beat! Their margin for victory increases to the point where it almost takes a lightning strike to beat them.
Using this as my standard, it is hard for me to pick KU to go all the way. We are capable of beating anyone on any given night. But what are our chances of bringing at least one of those aspects to all 6 games? Not saying it couldn’t happen… but our margin for victory is tiny. And why? Because we haven’t played solid defense consistently throughout the year. To count on our offense being hot every night is a sucker’s bet.
The thing is… we are capable of playing good defense! Question is… will we? Even if we get JoJo back… will we play tough defense every game? I’m not counting on much from our offense. Throwing a bunch of freshmen under the bright lights of March Madness, playing in unique venues before huge crowds and national TV audiences… this will be the ultimate test for our freshmen. And then… what about our junior PG? I think he’s more of a puzzle than our freshmen!
I know, I know… I’m being Negative Ned.
I still remain hopeful. I’m hopeful for the improbable… and make no mistake about it, it is highly improbable. But then… even if we were 34-0 and played great all year, it would still be tough to win the tournament. There is always some luck involved, too. It is hard to go 6 games with decent luck. Somewhere along the ways you meet up against a team where a guard, who has a season 3-pt average of 24.7%, goes on a hot streak and shoots 89% from 3! Then we have to figure out how to stop him while keeping composure with a bunch of freshmen! That is the real challenge in March!
If you follow what I’m saying you should realize we should have won a National Championship last year! We had the right pieces… except at point. It wasn’t EJ’s fault… he wasn’t a great PG.
I know I keep harping on the qualities of WSU. Sorry about that… but stories like the one below explain in detail what a great PG brings to the table. Something we never go out and get to lead the team. It is more about what they do off the court than on.
http://www.kansas.com/2014/03/15/3347357/vanvleet-has-his-shocker-teammates.html
I’m not implying WSU is going to win the tournament… but this is how you get a bunch of average D1 players to play over their heads. We need this kind of leader to lead a bunch of McD’s All-Americans wearing Jayhawk uniforms!
Then we can start thinking about being a real dynasty in March! This idea of just signing big time talent is over-rated. Then we think more like a Kentucky… and we just try to overpower the field with raw talent. More than anything, that is why I hate Callipari. He brings the notion that it isn’t about the details, hard work and sacrifice to win a championship… it is just about signing big talent.
I hope we don’t go down that avenue. I hope Self continues to recruit players that will be here for 3 or 4 years, too. Enough for us to have players around long enough to build chemistry, team unity, leadership, and the ability to play great team defense! But this year was a strange year… losing our entire starting lineup from last year and only one of those guys was close to being a OAD… (technically, BMac was more like a 1 1/2-and-done).
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Did you guys see Kentucky play Florida in the SEC Championship (loss by 1)? UNM would have been smoked like an oscar meyer on the grill if they play Florida.
I did and with the exception of a three minute portion of the game when Florida relaxed way too much, Florida dominated UK the majority of the game…
10:49 left in the game, score Florida 54, UK 39
7:45 left in the game , score Florida 54, UK 50
In those 3 minutes Florida missed 3 FG and committed 2 turnovers and UK capitalized on that. The rest of the game, Florida played conservatively not to lose.
Having watched both teams play several times throughout the season and given a choice, I would prefer to play UK over UNM at this point of the season, as we match up better with them without Embiid; Cauley-Stein would be easier to control than the bigs at UNM. Just my opinion.
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@drgnslayr so my friend, how far did you pick the shocks to go?
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@JayHawkFanToo Playing devil’s advocate for a minute here - So the fact that UK erased 11 points off a 15 point hole against the consensus #1 team in the country, and did it in 3:04 isn’t a scary thing? Florida pushed UK to the brink, to the point where most teams break, roll over and get blown out. That’s where the game was headed. Heck, that’s what I thought was about to happen.
I figured UK would fold up at that point. And then, before I could even make a sandwich and refill my beverage, it was a game again. And they did it in basically six possessions. The suddenness with which they got back into the game speaks to their talent.
Now, will they play up to that talent for six straight games? I doubt it. I have a feeling they probably won’t put that together for three games in a row.
I believe in WSU. I think they are a very good team. I just think their road is so challenging. They are almost guaranteed to be facing a high level opponent every round after round 1 (round 2, whatever they call it now). If they survive that road and win the title, they will absolutely deserve every accolade and story that will be written about them.
