Should KU shoot anything but threes?
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And is it time for the five Guard offense ?
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Would you rather fight 1 horse sized Sherron Collins’, or 100 duck sized Sherron Collins’?
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You can use a hockey stick in both scenarios.
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If KU shoots all 3s, then Bill Self cant be the coach. That…wouldnt be his team, would it? Get Hoiberg from daBulls if we want a 3-heavy offense. Or Kerr from GState.
Or promote Ben Jacobsen from UNI up to the BigXII and make him KU’s new coach.
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This probably won’t be a good enough 3 point shooting team for that strategy to be effective. Just to offset the the 2 point and FT’s, KU probably has to be a 40% or better 3 point shooting team. Last year could have been a legitimate option because that was a great 3 point shooting team. This year’s team does not appear to be on that level and if the end up in the 35-36% range from 3 as a team, that comes out to 105-108 points per 100 attempts. Let’s say this team ends up in the 48% range from the field as a team and 70% from the FT line and attempts 20 FT’s per 100 FGA, that puts KU at 96 points on the FGA alone and another another 14 points from the FT line for 110 points from 2 point range including assumed FTA. that’s 110 points.
The reality is that it would be much more efficient to drive to the rim every single possession because those FGA combined with FTA’s are statistically much more efficient than attempting nothing but 3FG’s where the foul rate is minimal.
This will always be a curious debate, but the reality is that I don’t believe any college team will ever be a good enough 3 point shooting team to make that a more efficient shot than driving to the rim and trying to get fouled. 3 pointers however will always be a more efficient than midrange jumpers that have a slightly higher make %, but similar foul rate and worth one fewer point.
I think my ultimate position on this will be that unless a team shoots 40% or better from 3, it’s just never going to efficient enough to seriously consider a sound strategy over shooting at the rim where the foul rate is much higher so the FT’s combined with 2FG%. My order for just about every team will be shooting at the rim, then 3 pointers, then midrange.
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@Texas-Hawk-10 Perfect post. And to pile on to everything @Texas-Hawk-10 just said: Since these Jayhawks are not the 3pt team that last season’s was, then MAYBE they better learn to be more competent & well-rounded in all phases of the game…
Note to Bragg.
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@Texas-Hawk-10 It is much too early to know if this is a good 3 point shooting team.
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@ralster There may be a game or two where could bombard our opponent with 3’s, but not every game under Coach Self. I think Vick, Graham, Svi, and Mason are all capable of getting hot from 3. i don’t know if it will ever be a strategy, but if it is an open shot, in the flow of the offense, I am sure they can take it. Long season and we are just getting started.
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@KansasComet Jackson is worse than Selden was and Bragg is worse than Ellis was. Even if everybody else shoots what they did last year, Jackson and Bragg are downgrades from the guys they’re replacing as 3 point shooters.
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You have made a sound argument explaining Self returning to Bad Ball in the 4-1 set: scoring efficiency plus fouling up opponents never goes out of style.
And effectively no team has been able to run consistently for high percentage transition baskets (i.e., transition being bread and butter), since high contact basketball was allowed to proliferate after Roy’s last KU team.
Self may be anticipating rule changes will favor transition scoring, but as he showed vs IU, when the chips are down, he resorts to BAD BALL.
Forecast?
Self wants to:
get leads with transition with SMALL BALL;
foul up with BAD BALL if he can’t transition;
defend leads with BIG BALL; and
play from behind with BAD BALL.
It’s what he has been evolving toward for two previous seasons.
It’s his contemporary adaptation of Dean Smith’s MULTIPLE OFFENSE.
I wrote about this at length last season.
But under and unreported injuries appear to be seriously cramping his plan this season.
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P.S.: Self, as he ages, is increasingly attracted to any tactic that makes opposing coaches prepare for more possibilities. The “stretch 4” is quintessential. Now he loves the “ubiquitous 3”–the 3 who might show up anywhere from 1 to 5. It’s not just Josh. He has been experimenting since BRush with the ubiquitous 3, but he hasn’t found guys that could do more than swing 3-4, or 2-3. Swinging 2-3 really doesn’t help, since both are just wing positions. He wants to swing inside and out; that is what really stresses a defensive scheme and complicates preparation. I reckon he likes stressing opposing coaches with multiple offense, because he now has the edge over most in experience AND he knows how many 2 in 3 and 3 in six situations arise.
