Is this weird? I actually think Embiid playing well INCREASES the chances he stays at KU.

Hear me out - his hook and jumper are soft and beautiful. His footwork is like nothing I’ve ever seen. He runs the court with ease on the fast break. He is the most rapidly improving player I’ve ever even heard of. This guy is a high draft NBA lock this year, next year, or 4 years from now - no question.

I’ve noticed a few things though that really caught my eye - there were multiple rebounds and slams where he quite simply out “heighted” people. Wiggins will get 6-8 points a game by out “athleting” people in the same way Joel dominated last night. When he gets to the NBA those baskets, rebounds, and blocks won’t be there. His game is a lot like Anthony Davis in the sense that when his game comes to maturation he won’t be the best at anything but be darn good at a whole bunch of things. He will be a huge asset to Kansas this year simply because he’s an athletic 7 footer who gets good position and has a knack for finding the ball - not because he’s technically gifted enough to take a game over. But he’s close.

What I’m trying to get at is this - Embiied would be pushed around in the NBA this year, next year, and two years from now. He’s long but he’s not thick. With his intelligence and willingness to learn he will reach maturity much sooner then anyone expects but, if he leaves this year, he will still be learning next year as well. He’d probably play, he’d deffinitely get paid, but he’d be a few years away from becoming a fast Roy Hibbert. I think the top 3 are pretty locked in. Tweeners and potential are the surest way to get a GM fired and with the three can’t miss freshman coming out this year you’ll be darned to find a GM willing to pass on any of them. Then there’s Exum out of Australia and we all know how potent Marcus Smart can be. So, let’s say Jo leaves this year and is the 5th pick. Great for him, he’ll make a ton of money. But now let’s say he stays - Okafor is the #1 recruit in the class and Jo’s potential is phenominally higher than his. NBA loves potential and Jo is a quick learner - give him a few years and he’ll match Okafor’s offense but Okafor can never match Jo’s athleticism. I think there is a very real shot that Embiid is the #1 pick NEXT year. In fact, if he stays, I would be surprised if he wasn’t.

So there-in-lies the reason I think he may stay. Regardless if he stays 1 or 2 years he’s probably 3/4 years away from 20 and 10 on the NBA level. his first 2/3 years will be a growing process in the NBA. If he leaves after this year and say he’s the 5th overall pick he’ll make 2.9, 3.0, and 3.2 million respectively. The team option will be a fourth year at around 4 million and then his rookie contract will be up. If he doesn’t produce at a high level until his 3rd year maybe they don’t pick him up year 4. Maybe they offer him a lower qualifying offer and, when he blows up year 4, he’s already signed for 3/5 years. BUT, if he stays, and goes number 1 overall, he stands to make roughly 4.8 million MORE combined over his first 3 years (2nd 3.3 mil 3rd 2.1 mil). Furthermore - considering his maturation is further away, he’ll be coming into his prime years 2 (if lucky) and 3 which is a much better situation to be in when renegotiating your next contract. The NBA is all about your 2nd contract - that’s where the real money is.

I’ve thought this way for a while and I have people who agree and disagree with me. It’s hard to tell a kid to leave millions on the table but if you look at it from the perspective of, if he leaves, he may be leaving millions on the table, it might shed a bit of light for him. It’s a rare situation that he’s in having - so much raw talent and being in such a talent laden class. I don’t think I can recall a situation like this before but it just seems like it may be best for Jo financially to stay next year in the long run. I’m not considering the whole mental, physical, free school, great school bs into this decision because the NCAA right now, like it or not, is all about getting to the pros and getting paid. That’s fine by me. Jo will be a pro - I think if he stays he’ll be the wealthiest rookie in 2014.

Sorry @KUSTEVE but it looks like I’m cheating on you. Tarik Black is my GUY.

While his 1 rebound, 1 turnover, 3 foul night is an undeniably sexy line wah gets me most about the guy is how much he cares. He was predicted to play a major role within our team this year but his pension to hack and his overall lack of basketball ability seems to be hindering his playing time. He transfered to KU to get minutes and make a push to the NBA - instead he’s a glorified bench warmer who will be lucky to impact 3 significant games.

But this is why I love Tarik Black - he doesn’t outwardly seem to care. He is 100% all in. He is the first guy up off the bench, he is constantly supporting the guys who are taking his minutes, he smiles and has passion even if he’s only wearing his warm ups. When Selden dove for the loose ball it was Black (along with Traylor who I also man crush on) who were the first to jump up and get excited at the hustle play, they were the ones pounding on Selden’s chest and getting the team into it. Compare Black’s reaction to my most hated player in KU history - Brennan Greene. I literally cannot wait for that *#!% to transfer.

But this is why I love black. He cares. He wants it as much as anyone he’s just not that good of a basketball player. He doesn’t let this realization get him down - he keeps moving forward in a positive direction. He could have easily shut down but he didn’t. The kid graduated college in 3 years and has a wealth of experiences in his 4 year college career. I wish i owned a company simply so I could hire him - I have no doubt he’ll be successful whatever he does in life.

Greene will probably be homeless.

I don’t think there’s any chance Lucas transfers. He was an unrated 3 star recruit who came to Kansas after his father and Bill Self had countless conversations about how he was going to develop Landen. While I’m sure he would very much like to get PT he came into the program knowing that it was going to be a process into his development. He has all the tools to be great but spent the majority of his life overseas not playing competitive basketball. I think he’ll have a career similar to Releford’s and I think the fact that he spent a year red shirting with Travis on the team shows him that, if Bill says to wait his time, his time will come.

The kid is a hard worker who chose to come to Kansas to be developed into the player his body will allow him to be. Could he transfer next year to a school like Cal or Stanford and play the following year? probably quite easily. But I think the reality of it is that he knows his best chance to get to the next level will be to stick it out with Self and bide his time. He may not see much PT next year but he would see 0 if he transferred.

You can’t teach Lucas’ body. He chose KU to develop him into a pro. He can transfer to a ho hum school and get all the playing time he wants but if that is what he was worried about he wouldn’t have signed with us in the first place.

I don’t understand your reasoning. “The problem with the OAD phenomenon is it gives those very players a false sense of how good they really are.” - College basketball is supremely different today then it was back then. These kids are traveling all over the country playing each other at an early age. Their level of competition in the summer aau circuit is so much better, even as compared to 5 years ago. There is such a focus on developing kids at a young age because it is making people money. AAU coaches get paid entirely too much, prep schools get national attention, Nike and McDonalds are able to run the hype machine and make even more money themselves. It’s a different monster. The OAD phenominon doesn’t give them a false sense of how good they really are, everything leading up to it lets them know how good they really are. Wiggins wasn’t even going to be a part of this class until he dominated Randel and realized he was ready.

I personally feel basketball needs to go back to the way it was before the OAD was forced on kids. I would say most, if not all, of these top recruits view their future profession as being a professional basketball player. They don’t need to go to college the same way Zuckerberg or Jobs didn’t. There are some very special and talented players out there who are missing out on a year of making millions of dollars and their window for making that kind of money is very small. I also don’t feel you can force a player to have to stay for an extended period of time. Should Carmelo have had to stay after his freshman year at Syracuse? No. Was his decision to go for a year to Syracuse rather than directly to the NBA the right one? absolutely, yes. Kids have a decision to make at a young age - go and take the money now or, if not comfortable/totally ready, develop in college to see where you stand.

My apologies if this got a bit rant-ish. I just think it’s totally backwards and can’t imagine how angry I’d be if I had a limited shelf-life and was good enough at something that people wanted to pay me millions of dollars but someone told me I couldn’t join because…?

Kane was not Able.

I see every basketball player as an entrepreneur. They have a singularly focused goal from an early age - become the best they can be at what they do and make the most money possible. They make life changing decisions at a young age, develop a brand, and position themselves to meet the goals they set for themselves.

The NBA going to a one year out of high school rule had nothing to do with protecting players and insuring their emotional and physical maturation - it was purely a direct effort to generate more hype and make teams more money. It was a nod to the NCAA and its popularity. It was a realization, in my opinion, that players like Carmelo Anthony, can create a brand and name for themselves in one year of college and help transform a franchise. I know multiple people who were Syracuse fans who, the second he was drafted, became huge Nuggets fans. You look at the impact Carmelo made as compared to a guy like Kobe. If Kobe had gone to college he would have been a household name. But it took a few years before Kobe became a superstar (and it wasn’t because of play).

The NBA is self serving. They see the NCAA as the greatest minor league system in the world. It is purely used to develop players and gain exposure to create hype for previously unknown guys. I mean, look at KUsports. Every day we have an NBA update for a bunch of guys that no one else in the league besides KU grads care about. What great exposure!

Let’s not forget as well that the NBA tried to ruin the NCAA with the d-league. Their reaction to players coming out of high school that weren’t quite ready for the league was to create their own minor league system to have these kids grow. They actively pushed for teams to draft high schoolers and put them in their developmental league. They realized the d-league didn’t provide 1/10th the hype of the NCAA and magically - the one and done rule appears!

The OAD is a self serving NBA rule and it is best for these kids to position themselves in large programs, create national exposure, and prepare their brand for the NBA. I don’t think they should have to take this step if they don’t want to (although it has made people like Carmelo millions more so it’s not always a bad choice) and I definitely don’t feel they should have to stay more than one year for maturation’s sake. The NFL takes red flags all the time - even after 3 years. It’s up to the teams to take the risk.

I subscribe to the Jay Bilas model - Players can be drafted at 18. They choose their college regardless and if an NBA decides to they can either take them at the beginning of the season (say a wiggins, randle, parker) or they can keep them in college for up to 4 years as long as they pay him. They cannot pull a player out mid year and have to make the decision at the end of the season what they’re going to do with the player. There are kinks to work out but let’s just pay these kids already.

Today is slow Jayhawk news -

http://www.people.com/people/package/gallery/0,20315920_20635373_21207339,00.html#21207346

Sexiest Alaskan alive, GQ cover boy, I went to school there… I’d say KU is doing pretty well for themselves in the looks department.

I was hoping for Alexander all along and couldn’t be happier it ended up this way. Our backcourt is already stacked and Tyus not starting would simply serve as a distraction. With the speed and athleticism at every position a guy like Okafor would slow down one of the biggest advantages we have.

I feel like, regardless of departures, Alexander is the best fit and will start immediately - you cannot keep him off the floor. If Embiid leaves he can instantly be slotted in the 5. If he stays (and this would be the case if we could somehow get Turner) we have the ability to slot Alexander at his natural position of PF. This is assuming Perry stays as well - Perry’s biggest assets are his IQ and footwork which would transition nicely to the small forward position. SF is the only position Perry will be playing in the NBA so it makes sense for him to develop those techniques at KU. That leaves us with either Selden (if he stays) at the two or plug in AWIII if he leaves and Naadir at point. We’ve got Traylor, Lucas, Mickelson as front court reserves and Mason, Frankamp, Greene, and Oubre to spell our back court.

I think the reality of KU’s recent recruiting (and hopefully future) is that we are attracting NBA ready one-and-done talent. Does that mean they’ll all bolt? Hopefully not. But it is no secret that Kansas players haven’t been as successful in the Pros as other programs. This is because, in large part, Self is a system coach who puts his best 5 on the floor. Take the Morris Twins, for example, who struggled their first few years learning the position and, now comfortable in their role, are flourishing. Same with T-Rob.

If we are going to start brining in top 10 guys on a consistent basis then 1. they will start and 2. We will try to start them at their NBA/natural position because that is where they provide us with the biggest advantage. There will be times we mix and match like we did against Duke when other teams are going to 3 guard sets but can you imagine the size, length, strength, and speed of a lineup of 1. Tharpe 2. Selden (WhiteIII) 3. Ellis 4. Alexander 5. Embiid (Turner)?

Now, assuming Embiid leaves and Turner goes elsewhere we would simply shift to a smaller lineup that gets the players a bit out of their NBA position but fits Self’s best five strategy. Either way Alexander ensures that we are set to be a dominant team next year and we won’t be forcing a player like embiid to enter the draft so a player like okafor can take his position. That’s not Self, that’s not Kansas - thank god we aren’t Kentucky.

Really excited for this season and years to come. We’ve got something rolling right now!

For the amount of Final Fours and and Championship games KU has been a part of the actual number of Championships is somewhat disproportional and infuriating. I’m not directing this at Self as much as it is at Roy but I certainly expect over the next 5 years to bring in at least 1 more championship and multiple final four appearances. We’re spoiled.

That being said - I also am of the thinking that when Popovich leaves the Spurs, Self is their next head coach. The only hope we have of keeping him in my humble and always correct opinion is that Pop leaves within the next 2 years before Tyler graduates. Hope it never happens but the situation would be too perfect for Self for me to be angry that he did it.

Agreed dubD. I am really okay with Self leaving as long as it is to either OK ST. say… 15 years from now? Or a Solid NBA franchise. If he were to leave to take over a team like the Bobcats I’d be furious, but, if he decides to depart to a solid franchise like the Spurs (which are the class of the bunch) I could only cry a bit and say farewell. R.C. Buford is a close friend of Self’s and Chase is obviously a grad and current grad assistant. If he were to inherit a front office and team like the Spurs I have no doubt Self would be the 2nd coach to win both an NCAA and NBA title - nice that they’d both be Jayhawks!

As Self has said - he is at a Cadillac program. He’s not going to leave for anything less then his alma matter or a solid NBA franchise. But, not trying to get too far off topic, if we have him the next 5 years I have no doubt we’ll be hoisting at least 1 more banner.

Rock Chalk

MAN you guys jump ship easy.

We got complacent, went on the road, and got out everythinged.

Hard to watch but was incredibly impressed with Wayne’s desire. Also VERY impressed with Wiggins. Think he’s really turned the corner. This is not sarcasm - this is fact. Wiggins could not buy a bucket, no one could, but he kept his head up, kept hustling, and played very solid defense. Other guys were just not tuned in. Na’ must have been blacking out on dirty 6 all night cause he was an absolute no show but other than that it wasn’t because we’re a finesse team or what not. We’re young and went on the road to a loud environment and just got beat. We’ll learn from it. We aren’t soft we just didn’t hit shots, could never get anything going, and the Texas players were playing in front of their first crowd that got over 85 db’s in about 6 years. Think KU football when we pretended we cared.

Phog.net is superior. they love me. I’ve found a new home.

Tubby is a good person and a good program builder and an absolutely terrible coach.

In today’s day and age I think this is needed for the basketball program. Keeping up with the Jones’s definitely plays a part but I think player safety/privacy is the overriding issue. Hearing about the autograph seekers, the people waiting for players outside the towers, people in the towers knocking on doors late at night after a night out. It must not only be annoying but seep into the back of these kids minds that they’re never alone. This should provide some piece of mind.

Kane was not Able.

@KirkIsMyHinrich I think, for this game, we can almost guarantee Niang to hit at least 4 3’s. He’s just one of those guys.

Very well said @justanotherfan. I completely agree about Hoiberg and Kane’s numbers speak for them self. I think seeing AWIII at the stretch 4 as we did last year is a real possibility tonight - hadn’t thought of that myself so now i’m going to take your idea, tell everyone I know, and claim it as my own. Thanks.

We’re on the same page with Black but I personally think Traylor has the ability to guard a stretch 4 or 5 and I think we’re going to need his energy in tonight’s game. I’m trying to imagine a Tharpe, Selden, Wiggins, White, Traylor lineup and it makes me giddy to think how fast we would be. No one in the country would be able to keep up!

Now all I’m going to do is make up scenarios about what it is that @drgnslayr said. All I have to say on the subject is this - somewhat like Lawrence is a bastion of goodness surrounded by Kansas, Iowa is a bastion of goodness surrounding Ames.

I have been around Iowa State fans for, many, many years and fondly recall being shouted at multiple times as a child, watching Iowa State fans vomit and pee themselves, and listening to a fan base that ENDLESSLY complains and makes excuses. While I have had bad experiences with every fan base (as I’m sure people have with KU) I usually have more positive experiences to hark back upon then negative (even Missery - although I have a sister and brother in law who graduated from there so their friends/family may temper it down when I’m around).

With Iowa State though, outside of the 1 fan I’ve met who I respect, I genuinely have nothing positive to say. They seem to always be trying to prove themselves and continually make fools of themselves on a national stage. I don’t know if it is their announcers who have made their fanbase this way or vice versa but listening to Iowa State radio DJ’s, announcers, or supporters is literally the largest pity party - woe is me attitude I’ve ever heard. I, personally, don’t think that any die hard Iowa State fan has ever truly felt they lost a game. It is ALWAYS the refs fault. I have never met a more annoying fan base in this regard - I can’t even pick a fan base who is in the same stratosphere as Iowa State. It is pathetic.

I could go on and give anecdote after anecdote but it would be a waste of time. The state of Iowa is, without a doubt, the greatest state in the union and sadly we have to claim Lames as part of it. I hope ISU fans act just an inappropriately as they did last year as national embarrassment is the only way they realize they aren’t being “picked on” by other schools - they’re just really that bad.

@KUSTEVE I literally cannot spell his name. I’m over it.

@drgnslayr comparing Naadir Tharpe to a miniature poodle is the best comparison I have ever heard. Thank you. You should come shotgun beers with @KUSTEVE and I sometime and we can come up with the rest of the team’s comparisons.

the more you post @drgnslayr the more I trust your judgment on humanism. I’m glad we can keep this tango going. I love dancing. I would say my “rough edges” are exposed due to my desire to be the opposite of the professional world I live in as I read these posts. Maybe I’m just saying here what I want to say out there. I don’t know. As I said - I’m emotional.

I promise from my end to try my best and always be a free spirit if you promise from your end to sometimes allow me to say a poop joke.

Happy weekend - I’m going home.