Differentiating fact from opinion on COVID-19
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@Bwag said in Differentiating fact from opinion on COVID-19:
Basically itās all an overblown election year stunt. Sure the disease is bad for a subset of people, but the hysteria and the politicalization of medicine and science has been over the top.
Itās bad for even non-olds. I know several in their mid-late 20ās who are still having neurological issues months after infection. Add that to the very likely case that weāre significantly undercounting covid deaths makes it a huge deal to me. All cause mortality in the US is much higher this year than itās been in quite awhile, even though mortality had cratered for those under 18. In folks 18-64, deaths are about 15% higher than a year ago. If you add in all age groups, weāve had as many deaths this epidemiological year than all of last year, with 6 weeks to go. So itās hard for me to say itās overblown when weāre barreling toward the worst year for death in 30 years, even though weāve taken extraordinary steps to contain it.
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UNC up to 4 outbreaks now. Good times
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@FarmerJayhawk school start Monday?
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@Crimsonorblue22 said in Differentiating fact from opinion on COVID-19:
@FarmerJayhawk school start Monday?
We started last Monday
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Whatās your prediction for how long this lasts before youāre fully remote? Sorry if you already said.
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@approxinfinity said in Differentiating fact from opinion on COVID-19:
Whatās your prediction for how long this lasts before youāre fully remote? Sorry if you already said.
I think we pull the plug before the end of the month. At this rate, our quarantine dorms will be full in a matter of a week or two.
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@approxinfinity To me the real question is how long until people start talking about an acceptable death rate for schools.
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@benshawks08 morbid, but youāre keeping it real. Ironically, once theyāre all infected, sending them home may make the death rate explode. Finishing my attic is starting to sound better and better. What house is complete without an isolated sick room?
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@benshawks08 said in Differentiating fact from opinion on COVID-19:
@approxinfinity To me the real question is how long until people start talking about an acceptable death rate for schools.
I think itās a reasonable conversation to have. Usually flu deaths among kids range from 50-150 per year. The biggest vector is schools and we kind of just chug along like normal. Under 18 weāre at 73, per the CDC. I think for kids, especially elementary age, thereās an acceptable risk across most of the country to reopen schools utilizing proper protocols. In hotspots maybe you wait. But my local district is fully remote until January, which seems an overreaction to me. The district is very affluent, but also has the largest racial achievement gap in the country (right up with Evanston, IL and Ann Arbor, MI). I think itās unacceptable to lose another semester to year of learning for those kids.
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@FarmerJayhawk I just know there was one year where we lost three kids in my school of 1600 and it was probably the most traumatic year of my life. Each one was so devastating and the next just compounded the loss. For reference, 1% Of my student population would be 16, .5% would be 8. So I will be watching those numbers carefully. A majority of our students are Latinx, the community who statistically taken the biggest hit both locally and nationally.
I think a big thing people havenāt really been thinking about is how much kids have been protected up until this point by schools shutting down and being closed all summer. We have no idea what this is going to look like when it hits the school population for real.
Good news is death rate overall is going down As we learn more how to treat it and I think I saw fda approved new tests that should provide faster results but I canāt remember where I saw that.
@FarmerJayhawk First rule Of a pandemic is if it feels like an overreaction you are probably doing it right.
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People have already been talking about this. Itās not just the kids. The reasonable conversation to have is how many deaths among teachers, staff, students and family members weāre willing to acceptā¦ before shutting it down after a couple of weeks or a month for zero meaningful learning for kids, but the experiment sets us back 2+ more months and 50K more dead.
I know itās not possible to just shut down for everyone. My 77 year old mom is flying back from Raleigh to KC tomorrow. Iām picking her up at the airport becauseā¦ well, wtf else am I supposed to do. Sheās been in Goldsboro, NC, for 2 weeks to help with my military nephew and his wife who just had their second baby in 18 months (never underestimate Air Force fertility). They probably were not hanging out at fraternity houses at UNC, but it sure sounded like they were going out to eat a lot like everything was all 2019. Iām stocking her fridge, leaving a new thermometer on her bathroom counter, and Iām hoping she can hunker down for a few days to make sure she avoided itā¦ before she drives around town getting her favorite groceries at every store in Lawrence.
College kids are pouring into town anyway, so itās going to get interesting. My wife is a prof at KU, and I can assure you that faculty have all spent their summers putting together 2 or 3 or 4 scenarios for their fall semester syllabi. EVERYONE wants to get kids back in school and college in person, but the stupidest thing will be to try against obviously bad odds ā¦ and failā¦ for nothing.
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@DanR
agreed. what is the point?It seems the only schooling that can reasonably open would be hyperlocal rural school.
Universities are only opening because theyāre a business imo
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@benshawks08 said in Differentiating fact from opinion on COVID-19:
@FarmerJayhawk I just know there was one year where we lost three kids in my school of 1600 and it was probably the most traumatic year of my life. Each one was so devastating and the next just compounded the loss. For reference, 1% Of my student population would be 16, .5% would be 8. So I will be watching those numbers carefully. A majority of our students are Latinx, the community who statistically taken the biggest hit both locally and nationally.
I think a big thing people havenāt really been thinking about is how much kids have been protected up until this point by schools shutting down and being closed all summer. We have no idea what this is going to look like when it hits the school population for real.
Good news is death rate overall is going down As we learn more how to treat it and I think I saw fda approved new tests that should provide faster results but I canāt remember where I saw that.
@FarmerJayhawk First rule Of a pandemic is if it feels like an overreaction you are probably doing it right.
The IFR for covid for under 18 (and even moreso under 12) is far less than the flu. It seems like we can eyeball it at less than .01% based on this preprint meta-analysis. So in that scenario, a school of 1600 would expect to lose .16 students if every single student became infected. If theyāre off by a factor of 10 and everyone got infected, youād expect to lose 1.6 to COVID. So then the calculus changes some in multiple ways. At what level is ok vs. not ok to open? 1 student too high? 2? 10? I donāt know the answer, though I certainly think 0 is too low a threshold. Even among COVID cases, kids have a 4-9x lower risk of hospitalization than people aged 18-29. Overreacting has significant costs as well. Potentially putting parents out of work, destroying their finances and mental health. Wealthy parents can buy pods and all these things, less well of parents donāt have much choice in most of the country,
We all have to take on some level of risk to avoid increasing and permanent damage to kids and the economy. The costs of losing all the learning, plus the costs of lost work hours for parents, are just too high across most of the country. Iām all for virtual charter schools and others that specialize in online learning for kids and families who donāt want to take any risk (yay choice!) though they do underperform traditional charters and traditional neighborhood schools.
These are hard choices, and takes very serious and sober examination of the data by decision makers. If parents want to pull their kid out, fine, thatās their choice. The more information that comes in, the more I lean to opening at bare minimum K-6, possibly K-8.
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Iām still amazed that people are trying to solve a million consequential problems rather than the one big problem. Basically, we all already frittered 5 months away, half-assed, for nothing and the problem is worse than when it started. Too eager to eat the turkey before it was completely cooked. Stillāat any point, no matter how bad this isāwe could suck it up, isolate for 6-8 weeks and this thing is mostly long gone. Will it happen? Nope. Nobody offers that as a solution.
And, weāll have this same discussion in January about re-opening schools.
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@DanR said in Differentiating fact from opinion on COVID-19:
Iām still amazed that people are trying to solve a million consequential problems rather than the one big problem. Basically, we all already frittered 5 months away, half-assed, for nothing and the problem is worse than when it started. Too eager to eat the turkey before it was completely cooked. Stillāat any point, no matter how bad this isāwe could suck it up, isolate for 6-8 weeks and this thing is mostly long gone. Will it happen? Nope. Nobody offers that as a solution.
And, weāll have this same discussion in January about re-opening schools.
Probably because thatās my daily life. Solving issues as they come up. Iām not the governor. I canāt lock down the state. I also think another lockdown is impossible. The public health establishment already shot its wad when it said people couldnāt go to church or anything else, but mass protests are a-okay. Politically itās just not feasible.
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@FarmerJayhawk said in Differentiating fact from opinion on COVID-19:
@DanR said in Differentiating fact from opinion on COVID-19:
Iām still amazed that people are trying to solve a million consequential problems rather than the one big problem. Basically, we all already frittered 5 months away, half-assed, for nothing and the problem is worse than when it started. Too eager to eat the turkey before it was completely cooked. Stillāat any point, no matter how bad this isāwe could suck it up, isolate for 6-8 weeks and this thing is mostly long gone. Will it happen? Nope. Nobody offers that as a solution.
And, weāll have this same discussion in January about re-opening schools.
Probably because thatās my daily life. Solving issues as they come up. Iām not the governor. I canāt lock down the state. I also think another lockdown is impossible. The public health establishment already shot its wad when it said people couldnāt go to church or anything else, but mass protests are a-okay. Politically itās just not feasible.
It would be possible if the right people supported it. But they donāt. The left has taken this more serious from the get go. If our āleaderā were to use his influence over his āshoot someone in the street and theyāll still vote for meā crowd we could knock this out like a lot of europe has done. All it takes is being truly pro life (The real kind not just anti-abortion), pro health and pro science. Thatās it.
I still donāt get the protest v church dichotomy. They just arenāt the same thing.
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@benshawks08 said in Differentiating fact from opinion on COVID-19:
@FarmerJayhawk said in Differentiating fact from opinion on COVID-19:
@DanR said in Differentiating fact from opinion on COVID-19:
Iām still amazed that people are trying to solve a million consequential problems rather than the one big problem. Basically, we all already frittered 5 months away, half-assed, for nothing and the problem is worse than when it started. Too eager to eat the turkey before it was completely cooked. Stillāat any point, no matter how bad this isāwe could suck it up, isolate for 6-8 weeks and this thing is mostly long gone. Will it happen? Nope. Nobody offers that as a solution.
And, weāll have this same discussion in January about re-opening schools.
Probably because thatās my daily life. Solving issues as they come up. Iām not the governor. I canāt lock down the state. I also think another lockdown is impossible. The public health establishment already shot its wad when it said people couldnāt go to church or anything else, but mass protests are a-okay. Politically itās just not feasible.
It would be possible if the right people supported it. But they donāt. The left has taken this more serious from the get go. If our āleaderā were to use his influence over his āshoot someone in the street and theyāll still vote for meā crowd we could knock this out like a lot of europe has done. All it takes is being truly pro life (The real kind not just anti-abortion), pro health and pro science. Thatās it.
I still donāt get the protest v church dichotomy. They just arenāt the same thing.
Itās because public health officials picked and chose causes based on content, not science. It makes zero sense to forbid people from worshiping or going to funerals outside with masks and social distancing but also saying protests in the streets are totally fine. The coronavirus doesnāt care why people gather, itāll hop from person to person whether theyāre reciting the 23rd Psalm or chanting George Floyd. There was no scientific basis for separating them, so they shouldāve just been honest and said they didnāt think religion was important but protesting was, and that view was independent of COVID.
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The church thing was before the protests, here in ks. We had, maybe 12 deaths from church clusters in ks. I never missed a service, our pastor and every one I knew around central ks did streaming services, they still do. They recently opened up with masks and social distancing, no materials, one way in and one row dismissed at a time. No socializing. Parking was even every other space, with one entrance. I went to a protest with the police and naacp at the court house. Everyone had a mask one. It was organized and peaceful. I havenāt heard of anyone dying in ks from protests. People did get Covid from a wedding in great bend, nobody goes by the rules! I was at walmart
no masks on quite a few! 1 gal had a KSU T-shirt on!
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@Crimsonorblue22 said in Differentiating fact from opinion on COVID-19:
The church thing was before the protests, here in ks. We had, maybe 12 deaths from church clusters in ks. I never missed a service, our pastor and every one I knew around central ks did streaming services, they still do. They recently opened up with masks and social distancing, no materials, one way in and one row dismissed at a time. No socializing. Parking was even every other space, with one entrance. I went to a protest with the police and naacp at the court house. Everyone had a mask one. It was organized and peaceful. I havenāt heard of anyone dying in ks from protests. People did get Covid from a wedding in great bend, nobody goes by the rules! I was at walmart
no masks on quite a few! 1 gal had a KSU T-shirt on!Yes! This is my view as well. Rules should be content neutral. If you want to have church or a funeral or a protest outside with masks and social distancing, that should be fine. I donāt support different rules for different activities. The first amendment applies equally to protests and exercise of religion. Anyone is free to not like it but thatās the law. And from a humanitarian point of view, itās gross to say you canāt be at a family memberās burial (if itās a nonreligious ceremony) but can protest.
Kansas contact tracing is also a trash fire since anyone can opt out.
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Funeral thing is cruel, I know quite a few from my home town that couldnāt have them. But, some of them didnāt want to fly and or bring older folks to them. Most had graveside and planned for a memorial later. They didnāt want to gather. Smart!
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@Crimsonorblue22 said in Differentiating fact from opinion on COVID-19:
Funeral thing is cruel, I know quite a few from my home town that couldnāt have them. But, some of them didnāt want to fly and or bring older folks to them. Most had graveside and planned for a memorial later. They didnāt want to gather. Smart!
I donāt begrudge anyone who doesnāt want to participate. A good friend is eloping in a few weeks to avoid crowds at his wedding. My grandpa hasnāt attended his beloved church for months. My discomfort is with those who want government to enshrine those choices in law, but protesting for specific causes is totally fine. Not like the virus reads Kendi, DiAngelo, and Coates and decides it wonāt infect those folks.
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Quite a headline from the daily tar heel
https://twitter.com/tarheelsoup/status/1295337202495426560?s=21
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@benshawks08 guess they got it covered š¦
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@Crimsonorblue22 Funerals and weddings are impossible choices. My wifeās uncle died a couple weeks ago and she fretted for 3 days about whether to go ā 90 minute visitation followed by a rosary at the funeral home, plus full Mass church service and graveside service the following morning (traditional catholic funeral with about 200-300 family members through 5 generations). We ended up driving 3.5 hours to Springfield and back just for the visitation (stayed about 20 minutes and left before the rosary part). My wife thought she could follow social distancingā¦ yeah, rightā¦ walks in the funeral home door, bursts into tears, hugging her sobbing aunt who she hadnāt seen since Christmas.
I was apologizing to her cousin about not being able to stay for his dadās funeral, and he said heād tried to talk his extended family out of having the full big funeral mass etc. but felt pressured to do it. He talked my 81-year-old mother in law out of coming back for the funeral too. She was upset. Everyone was upset. The entire situation was more painful than any funeral Iāve ever been to.
Frankly, a funeral ban mightāve been better. Blame the governor instead of expecting relatives to make those choices.
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@DanR only in Mizzou, huh? Iām pretty sure they donāt have any bans on mass gatherings. But, they have a lot of deaths too. I hope they remain healthy! Does your wife have online classes or in classroom? So tired of this!
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@benshawks08 said in Differentiating fact from opinion on COVID-19:
Quite a headline from the daily tar heel
https://twitter.com/tarheelsoup/status/1295337202495426560?s=21
. You know itās the start of a new school year when UNC students complain about UNC. A proud tradition among the student body.
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@Crimsonorblue22 Sheās planning to meet half her students at a time on alternate days, but giving students the option to do all-online from the get-go or at any point in the semester. (she teaches graduate classes, so they are smaller groups-- half a class would not be more than 7 at a time if everyone chooses in-person).
Lots of teachers had hoped to be able to let students zoom into live classes (with some online and some in class). They tested the technology and, unfortunately, the online students couldnāt hear class discussions clearly enough to make it work. Partly due to masks and partly due to the fact that classrooms arenāt set up for that. Canāt exactly share a microphone!
@Crimsonorblue22 said in Differentiating fact from opinion on COVID-19:
@DanR only in Mizzou, huh? Iām pretty sure they donāt have any bans on mass gatherings. But, they have a lot of deaths too. I hope they remain healthy! Does your wife have online classes or in classroom? So tired of this!
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@DanR they gotta fix that! High school classes have that!
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Heh.
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And boom goes the dynamite.
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And THIS surprises Who ? - - -ROCK CHALK ALL DAY LONG BABY
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@jayhawkblue73 I hope we can continue to live in a world where competence from authority figures is expected.
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@approxinfinity said in Differentiating fact from opinion on COVID-19:
@jayhawkblue73 I hope we can continue to live in a world where competence from authority figures is expected.
I wish I could up-vote this a million times!
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Listening to Gov Kellyās message last night. 6 Months since Kansas had itās first case of the COVID -19. - ā 1,286 new COVID since last Friday. - -3 new deaths ,35,167 cases of COVID-19 now in Kansas & 405 Deaths - - just to many
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We now only have 1 county free or should I say so far, without COVID. Rawlins has a 33 yr old man infected. Think itās Thomas co. w/out.
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The system is soooooo broken.
https://twitter.com/rachaelherron/status/1296103976262221824?s=21
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@benshawks08 progressives need a seat at the table and they need to be welcomed.
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California is really an ungovernable trash fire. https://twitter.com/kyletibbitts/status/1296220438880649226?s=21
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Wallace co just went down. Kansas is 100% now.
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@Crimsonorblue22 Thatās not goodā¦ about as isolated as you can get. Iāve been to Mount Sunflowerā¦ not much (or many people) out there.
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read of a health site last night ā Headline read : COVID -19 Soaring in these 5 States.
Iowa , Kansas , Illinois , North Dakota , & South Dakota.
The article Stated about Kansas :Classes started at K-State this week and already 13 members of the Phi Delta Theta fraternity had tested positive - - Manhattan Mayor Usha Redic posted pictures of students partying that she had taken and University Administrators to put out an Urgent letter begging students to behave responsibly right now more then ever before in any of our lifetimes " We need everyone to follow the same playbook. Kansas has 37,544 cases & 431 Deaths.
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Just heard yes KU starts class today & they have already 89 people testing positive for the COVID -19 87 students and 2 faculity. - -everyone has to test to come back, and the tests just getting started
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@jayhawkblue73 said in Differentiating fact from opinion on COVID-19:
read of a health site last night ā Headline read : COVID -19 Soaring in these 5 States.
Iowa , Kansas , Illinois , North Dakota , & South Dakota ā¦ We need everyone to follow the same playbook. Kansas has 37,544 cases & 431 Deaths.
Btw I thought you might have stale numbers there because those are the numbers the Google widget was reporting but looking at the numbers on kdh they looked lower.
site says update mwf by 12:30 so maybe someone at kdh went on lunch break before clicking submitā¦https://www.coronavirus.kdheks.gov/160/COVID-19-in-Kansas
Typically i would assume the state numbers would be more accurate. Weeds out third party telephone tag / CDC number suppression. But maybe thatās not always the case of maybe Google is going more to the source now.
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@approxinfinity said in Differentiating fact from opinion on COVID-19:
@jayhawkblue73 said in Differentiating fact from opinion on COVID-19:
read of a health site last night ā Headline read : COVID -19 Soaring in these 5 States.
Iowa , Kansas , Illinois , North Dakota , & South Dakota ā¦ We need everyone to follow the same playbook. Kansas has 37,544 cases & 431 Deaths.
Btw I thought you might have stale numbers there because those are the numbers the Google widget was reporting but looking at the numbers on kdh they looked lower.
site says update mwf by 12:30 so maybe someone at kdh went on lunch break before clicking submitā¦https://www.coronavirus.kdheks.gov/160/COVID-19-in-Kansas
Typically i would assume the state numbers would be more accurate. Weeds out third party telephone tag / CDC number suppression. But maybe thatās not always the case of maybe Google is going more to the source now.
IDK just pulled the numbers from the Article had in the article about the 5 states that was soaring
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@jayhawkblue73 gotcha.
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Translation: herd immunity is big dumb https://twitter.com/virusesimmunity/status/1297890418168860674?s=21
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@approxinfinity said in Differentiating fact from opinion on COVID-19:
@jayhawkblue73 gotcha.
Just got through hearing Governor Kellyās news Conference this afternoon.
She stated it was a BAD WEEKEND for the State of Kansas.- - -they reported 1,545 new cases over the weekend with 7 new deaths - -which brings the totals to 38,401 cases and 426 Deaths with the Median age at 36 years old.
So let the troops all gather at the faternity and letās have a huge ass party - -ya that works
