Red Pill or Blue Pill?
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Will Obamacare be covering either one of these pills or will it be strictly out of pocket?
Given that tournament losses are birth control around my house, I think they’ll have to cover it.
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@konkeyDong I don’t feel attacked at all and didn’t mean to come across that way.
I don’t believe I would subscribe to the overachieving theory simply because of the recruiting talent and Self’s ability to “reload” year after year. I do understand your point that the system can be a set up to a false sense of security entering the NCAA Tournament or a seed that can cause an unfavorable matchup. I also agree that Bill Self is not the only coach to suffer embarrassing losses. Just look at Coach K in the last few Tournaments.
I do like your “leaning in” theory as well. I just think that when the problem is not taking care of the ball, whether its sloppy passing on the perimeter, tightening up when being pressured or not pulling up on a break when you don’t have numbers the point swings are just too much to overcome. Also those weakness are also the type that are most vulnerable to the high seed upset. The teams that usually don’t have the talent of a KU usually are the ones to press, scrap for loose balls and out hustle. Frustrate and take advantage of mentally unprepared teams. Mix that with a three point specialist and an upset is born. What is the data, turnover ratio is where I’d start. I will have to dig for that. But its not always the amount. Its the timing. Its the momentum killer. That falls into the basketball IQ category. Almost an intangible that you can only glean from watching the game. Something raw data cant tell the story. Understanding the possession and coveting the ball cant always be judged by stats. Taking a bad shot is also considered a turnover by some which is not in the stat book. To me that was the biggest deficiency of Collins, Taylor and EJ. Tharpe was so bad how can not having him mentally prepared by his junior year not be a hit on the staff. The thing about the other three PG’s I just mentioned was they could score, and singlehandedly win a game by scoring. So much that the momentum killing was either over looked or just plain forgiven. I can deal with that from any position except the PG. Personally, I wish Self would get a PG who cant score but has mad IQ, and facilitate the other 4 McDonalds all americans on the courts scoring. I realize that was just hyperbole but not far from really. I think that is the answer to your question of what do you fix. I think you devote more time in practice to teaching IQ. Situations. Understanding the “down and distance” if you will. Now, obviously I have no idea what Self coaches, how he coaches or how much time is devoted to what. This is just my assessment on watching the games year after year.
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All I see some of you doing is trying to get to a “root” cause for tournament losses explained away in some simplistic fashion. My whole point is it is a complex analysis when you take each single team, and its issues in a given season…like 06 or 07, or 09, 10, 11. Or how about 2012, when we simply lost the final game. Why did the overall No.1 Jayhawks in 2011 (MorrisHawks) show up and NOT be able to defend to their season-long FG% defensive numbers? Why were they unable to shoot 3s to their season long 3%? I actually dont want to give too much credit to Shaka Smart, other than he got our guys out of what we do…My bigger issue is with our own players, especially the seniors + juniors that made up 2011 squad.
Now considering the 2013 team: I saw too many flaws in season-long stats to think we would instantly change who we were, when it mattered the most, and on top of losing our most dynamic player (Embiid).
Self does change his system, as we had a very dumbed-down offense, just because of all the newbies trying to execute it.
People forget the 08champs had over 55plays in the halfcourt sets, that made them capable of absolutely demolishing any zone-D thrown at them. Why did we struggle against zones this year? Guys not on the same page, frosh inconsistencies, and the failure of Tharpe cannot be overlooked.
Bottom line: Blame Self, if you want…but I cannot get away from the poor execution and inexperience I saw out there in 2013. I dont think OADs are our solution–they automatically “cap” our playbook. Too many frosh cause a miscarriage or dilution of Self’s principles…until we are just another above average team with a bigname on our chest, but can be beaten a variety of waays (length, physicality, zones). It used to be that none of those things bothered our more experienced teams. My brain doesnt let me make it so simple as to just ‘blame Self’. That feels like an analytical cop-out.
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@KULA Just a note to you that I really like your post. You took the time to make your case, I think more on this thread than I’ve ever seen before…and I thought it a great read, as well as very compelling food for thought. I think it would be awesome if Self saw this whole thread and picked up on the critique-vibe. KU fans watch a lot of basketball, different styles, and different coaches. I do agree with a lot of what you say, for sure. I also like Self’s stuff, if executed competently (like the 08 guys did the best).
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@DanR Good summary. While I would like to have more tournament success, I still remember growing up, listening to games from 1975-1982 and those years felt like forever because that was 5th grade to my junior year in high school. KU was not a factor nationally. KU was not on TV. Ever.
Larry and Danny really brought about the silver age of basketball at Kansas, and it hasn’t ended yet. I’d say 1983 was a transition year, and then it really got started in 1984-1985 and only had the blip in 1989 for the Askew infraction.
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@ralster Thanks–appreciate it! I enjoy reading your posts too.
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@konkeyDong Now who’s copping out? Can I prove my ideas would work? Can I show my work? No, of course not. Because I’m not coaching the team–Duh! You can get as arcane and esoteric with your analysis as you want, but the simple fact is, we keep getting upset by teams we should beat.
Posters keep throwing up the 80+ winning percentage and wins per year. So what? That all goes down the drain if you can’t dispatch a lesser team in the tournament. Ask UConn fans if the care how many regular season games they won this year or in 2011. As far as I’m concerned, winning 29.5 games a year doesn’t mean a lot if you keep getting upset in the tournament. And I mean really upset. I’d have no problem with Bill if he lost to Syracuse of Florida this year. But to take the court with a roster full of future NBAers and lose to a team with none–that’s coaching, plain and simple.
As far as Roy vs Bill, well, Roy didn’t continually get knocked out of the tournament by extremely lower seeds. How many times did Roy go in as a #1 or 2 seed and get knocked out by a team seeded 8 or 9 slots lower than him? That’s my problem with Bill. Any objective observer would say that Bill just doesn’t do a good job of getting his team prepared for tournament games.
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I’ll say 2 final things:
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Beware of the “green” (envy) pill of envy. Our team had serious, season long issues, that other Self teams would easily surpass. And that got worse without Embiid. I went back and watched the ENTIRE KU vs. 15seed EKY game, and it was a 1 possession game until about 4min left in the game. Think about this: We lose to EKY in the 1st round IF Jamari Traylor doesnt go for 18-and-15!!!
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I wish Bill Self could have a “town hall”/“answer the critics” type of discussion…maybe with a panel of 3 journalists asking questions. I got no stomach for listening to whiny fans call in and bumble their way around their “question” which is often just their observational statement. I cringe with some callers.
Have the journalists ask Self: Why we dont throw changeup defenses early and often? It could absolutely achieve Self’s own principle of “disrupting the other guy”. NEVER let the other team get comfortable. Why dont we run set plays actually FOR a 3att? Other than the late-clock, situational chop play, our 3att’s are all off kick-outs, or are self-created by the player (Wiggins or Tharpe). We actually ran 3screens for Frankamp vs. Stanford, and he delivered…but why not for Wiggins all game long? Selden? Or, how about the slightly inflammatory “why is Ellis soft, and not an above-the-rim player?” And finally: Will the PG position next season be an OPEN competition, or will we be blindly loyal to the senior? Enquiring minds want to know. We think our Tourney performance depends on the answers…
RCJH
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@konkeyDong Now who’s copping out? Can I prove my ideas would work? Can I show my work? No, of course not. Because I’m not coaching the team–Duh! You can get as arcane and esoteric with your analysis as you want, but the simple fact is, we keep getting upset by teams we should beat.
Posters keep throwing up the 80+ winning percentage and wins per year. So what? That all goes down the drain if you can’t dispatch a lesser team in the tournament. Ask UConn fans if the care how many regular season games they won this year or in 2011. As far as I’m concerned, winning 29.5 games a year doesn’t mean a lot if you keep getting upset in the tournament. And I mean really upset. I’d have no problem with Bill if he lost to Syracuse of Florida this year. But to take the court with a roster full of future NBAers and lose to a team with none–that’s coaching, plain and simple.
As far as Roy vs Bill, well, Roy didn’t continually get knocked out of the tournament by extremely lower seeds. How many times did Roy go in as a #1 or 2 seed and get knocked out by a team seeded 8 or 9 slots lower than him? That’s my problem with Bill. Any objective observer would say that Bill just doesn’t do a good job of getting his team prepared for tournament games.
@KULA Well, if providing data to back up assertions is considered ‘copping out’ in your book fine, I’m copping out. You don’t have to be crowned head coach to demonstrate that your ideas work. You just have to be able to show that others who are doing the things you propose are having more consistent success. Is that too onerous a burden for you? Take, for instance, your point about Self yelling at players throughout a TO. I’ve seen nearly every D1 coach in the world do this. It’s the norm. When coaches don’t do this, it’s noteworthy. If that is truly something that hurts Self’s performances, why aren’t Jim Calhoun, Billy Donovan, John Calipari, et al affected by the same problem for seemingly doing the same thing? That’s what I mean by show your work. It’s not enough to assert that something is true, you have to be able to show something to back it up. If backing up claims with real data is too ‘esoteric’ for you, so be it, but I think anyone that completed high school should be able to do this with some proficiency.
As for Roy’s record in the tournament, he was upset by a significantly lower see in 1990, 1992, 1995, 1996, 1997, and 1998, and was seeded lower than a 4 seed on two of his non-upset early round exits. Self, by comparison, has lost to significantly lower seeds in 6 of 11 trips, but has also never been seeded worse than a 4 seed. 8/14 in upsets/early round exits vs 6/11 when you have a title and a runner vs 2 runners up to show for it I think is splitting hairs. Can we say they’re both bad tournament coaches
Sorry that you don’t like Self’s style of ball, but any objective observer can look at the data and tell you that Self’s system in and of itself isn’t the problem, or that at least, there’s more too it than simply coming up with a clever pejorative like Okie Hokie Pokie.
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Here’s how I see Bill Self’s gameplan evolution: He played for Eddie Sutton (Okie ball was defense, and 55point grinder, walk-it-up type of methodical pace…think of midmajors that play that way now to limit the other teams offensive chances). He learned as an assistant under Larry Brown at KU…(Larry Brown has made some prideful and praising comments about Self’s system at KU…probably gave him the coaching “itch” again, seeing variations of his own teachings being used by Self?). He was a Big10 coach x 3 yrs at Illini, and had to face Izzo, and Self’s KU has been beaten 3 times by Izzo…so the “toughness” thing has been burned into him. Hates “soft” play. Could it be that Self’s system is hardest for KU players who do not have the same type of aggressive personality that Self did as a player, and certainly has as a coach? And finally, Self has had to resort to subtle changes (breakdowns, really) of his offensive system, when the set plays werent working, he was able to tell Tyshawn (& saw Sherron do it also, on his own volition) simply dribble-drive and get to the rim for a bucket or a foul/and-1 opportunity. As Self said in 2012, Tyshawn Taylor was about half of KU’s offense, it seemed. And Self sorely lamented that EJ couldnt continue that attack dog-PG persona. But that wasnt EJ’s mentality. Nor is it Naadir’s. I will stop short of saying that Sherron and Tyshawn “taught” Self to go to dribble-drive penetration since they were so good at it…because I recall Self riding B.Rush endlessly (starting in 2006-7) about attacking and penetrating the paint…no different than he told BMac and Wiggins (&Selden). Rush did try, but basically exposed to the world his frosh year that he “couldnt go left”, something that took 2yrs to improve.
SO, going back to the big picture… the vicious question becomes: How far do you keep trying to teach & execute your system, vs. modifying it to suit the personnel. When do you throw much of it out the window, as he did in 2012, and resort to playground dribble-drive? For 2012, it was the right move, as Tyshawn was unguardable. It may have been the right move for 2013, and Wiggins HAD to be aggressive in order to get trips to the FT line. Mason did the same to Duke, when there was very little KU offense installed by early Nov. There has been hot debate that Self doesnt adjust the playstyle enough. It can be argued endlessly, that competent execution of Self’s stuff yields the better results (30+ wins), but maybe that doesnt leave enough legs in a player to duplicate it consistently by Madness time?
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One thing I think Self is correct about is the defensive mentality. I know it maybe broke EJ (who could not outplay Brady defensively), although to his credit, EJ did improve. Basically, if we cannot slow down the other team, we are NO better than RoyBall: score in the 80s and still lose. Twice. I, personally, dont want that unpredictable style of ball. UNC proved it again, Paige hot from 3, but UNC falls to IowaState who simply was aggressive enough to exploit UNCs weak D.
And, Im going to have to side with Self on the toughness thing: Ellis had his problems in that dept. UNC bigs have that issue ever since Hansbrough left. Give me Aldrich, Arthur, DJackson, Thomas Robinson, and what Embiid and Traylor are beginning to show. Give me what RussRob, Chalmers, Sherron, Brady, Tyshawn, and Wiggins showed defensively. And we see beginnings of that in Selden and Mason. When Self called out the Twins about being “soft” (major reason Izzo bounced us in 2009), they themselves realized he was right, and to their credit responded beautifully. Marcus actually took it too far a couple of times (in retaliation, to be fair…). Honestly, Ellis has work to do in “finding” his on-court persona that can allow him to execute what he knows he must–he certainly has the talent and the smarts. Just needs to find the ‘nasty’.
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Spot on. All of it.
And Ellis should be playing ball in the Bronx this summer on pavement and chain nets. Come back in the fall a little banged up, but a heck of a lot tougher after having his manhood challenged all summer.
Then Ellis would dominate for the year and enter into the draft as a 1st round pick.
As he is now, he already has a huge reputation for playing soft (especially on defense). If he came back from summer ball with one or two good facial scars, he would buy some cred even before playing another game.
Self needs some guards that play like Napier and Boatright. Those guys can d up… not only stopping tough driving guards… picking their pockets in the meantime.
It would really be something if (someday) we were so good at guard we looked forward to March and having a huge advantage over every team we play because our 1 and 2 had kryptonite running through their veins in the spring.
I’m tired of going into March wondering if our guards can handle the challenge. When was the last time we didn’t have that worry? '08? Maybe a bit longer with Sherron?
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I’m tired of going into March wondering if our guards can handle the challenge. When was the last time we didn’t have that worry? '08? Maybe a bit longer with Sherron?
@drgnslayr Actually, I felt pretty good in 2012 with Tyshawn and EJ by tournament time. It helped to have Withey in there to fix their defensive mistakes though!
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@HighEliteMajor You make valid points, truly you do. However, the way you say those things makes you seem like a grumpy old man. That’s my red pill and I’m taking it.
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End of season sad legs (and back); seasonlong quick yank of talented newbies. Regardless of Xs and Os, those two items encase much of the failures of many BIll Self squads to play to their seedings in the NCAA Tournaments. From the Miles/Lankford/Simien squads thru 2014, those two factors appear to be constants.
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@Lulufulu85 You are clearly a blue pill guy. No shame in that.
After the Stanford game, you were “ALL CAPS” upset with my criticism.
Why don’t you defend coach Self, then? Tell me what he did right against Stanford. Sit down, analyze the game, and tell why his game plan was a winner. Tell me why it was his players that lost the game.
And when you do, don’t reference “missed shots.” Coach Self was very clear after the game that our shots in the post were highly contested. And that we always had a hand in our face. Tell me why his strategy and scheme were not the problem. Tell me why his best player gets 6 shots the entire game? Tell me why we see Kentucky shift to a zone defense in the NC game, completely change the momentum after UConn was up 15? Tell me why Calipari can make such a change, and Self can’t? Tell me why Self continued to play Tharpe? Tell me why our zone offense is so stagnant?
If you want to defend coach Self, then defend him.
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@HighEliteMajor You just swished about 6 straight HEM. ++++++1…or damn close.
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Why did a Self-coached team (2008) demolish opposing zone defenses with ease, while another Self-coached team (2013), got really upended by zone-D’s? This 2013 team just didnt have it. Face the facts, face the stats (bad D stats most glaring: Just win the 2 games we scored 83+pts, and we likely are a 1seed, with a different path.)
THIS TEAM DID NOT HAVE IT, for a variety of reasons. Add the fact that the junior PG seems to crack under pressure (unpredictably). Got to have PTPers. Cannot enter the Madness going 3 of 6 your last 6 games. Nothing but a poor prognosticator.
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You can “beat up” on Coach Self…OR, one can be “keenly interested” in how this team is prepared, looks, and plays next season. It’s Bill Self’s situation to fix. He’s the $52million dollar man. I’m not a blind Self-believer, as we can easily see other successful coaches and systems are out there, but ya know, they get their ass beat too. Look at AZ, Syracuse, FL, KY, MichSt. All beat. No prize. And even with Jabari Parker, I went and checked that BlueDevil’s pulse–they were dead and gone before anybody. Weak. I do think Self’s system is “top3” IF it’s executed competently. KU’s execution this year was very spotty, to say the least. I want to see better data next season, period.
I dont buy the “tired legs” excuse as a system-wide problem (while it may be an issue for a player here or there, like Sherron’s pulled groin his final Madness, ending with the sluggish showing vs. UNI). I dont buy it, because we saw BETTER basketball being played in the E8 and Final4 this year by teams that play staunch defense. Other teams are doing it, and we supposedly have Hudy and all this marvelous conditioning, yet our guys are going to be weak down the stretch? I dont buy that as an excuse. The problem is mental, if anything. Or its a hunter (midmajor, no-name school) vs. the hunted (blueblood with N.A.M.E. across their chest…)
Well, are we tired of being someone else’s “trophy” on their wall? Tired of being the “stuffed jayhawk head” mounted above the small trophy case of who-dat teams?
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Nice to see you post on this. I like when your posts are more in depth.
Yes… the tired legs argument shouldn’t work for any D1 player. Come on, these kids are 19! They should only get tired for a few seconds then be recovered to hit hard again.
Okay… they want to be tired, then let’s go back to the full on boot camp. Let’s grind these guys into shape. Self shouldn’t have back down off of boot camp. It’s a great tool to build character in a team and gain some early team cohesion.
And if top tier recruits won’t come to Kansas because of boot camp, we don’t want them. Talent really isn’t worth anything if the attitude isn’t in the right place.
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This theme has been beaten to a pulp like a rented Missouri mule. Can we put this thread to a merciful end and start a new thread if there is enough interest left? It is a PIA to scroll to the bottom when accessing the forum from a cell phone or tablet.
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@JayHawkFanToo Yes! I’ve OD’ed on red pills!!!
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I’d like to add one more opinion before the thread closes. I believe our consternation involves a combination of early outs (3’s shouldn’t lose to 14’s and 1’s shouldn’t lose to 9’s, etc), the number of early outs in a given period, the overall lack of NC’s compared to other elite programs, and the national perception that KU underperforms in the tournament. As someone pointed out, no one questions Coach K’s credentials when he loses to a 14 in the first game, or that he has lost early a couple of times, recently. Why would they? He has coached Duke to 4 NC’s.
As fans of an elite program, arguably the program that fathered the the other elite programs, we certainly know the Kansas tradition is valid, but here in the hinterlands, we may be suffering a bit of self doubt. In 2008, KU was the fourth of the #1 seeds, but I was confident that that team would win; I just didn’t expect we would beat UNC by so much. It should have been obvious we had a good chance, but we are in the middle of the country, and the reporters wanted to enjoy Rick Pitino’s patter (Q: Are there any weaknesses on the Carolina team? A: Well, Roy’s not the best dresser. )
KU does not need to beat its breast. It just needs to keep playing top tier basketball. There are still NC’s to be won. Why shouldn’t Kansas win some of them? Why not, indeed.
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“I just didn’t expect we would beat UNC by so much.”
We had something to prove in that game. That game represents one of the few times WE carried a chip into a game since maybe Danny and the Miracles in the '88 finals. There was a lot of talk going back and forth concerning Roy and Kansas. Fans made sure our guys understood certain pieces of history concerning Roy and Kansas and why it was absolutely critical that we beat Roy.
The only time I’ve experienced that much vitriol with an opponent was with our rival Mizzou.
What gave us such a lopsided victory was the fact that the UNC players had nothing pushing their buttons to jack them up for that game. That’s why we came out and murdered them from the get go.
It was a reversal of what we often face from these lower ranked teams in March.
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@ralster Ah, terrific point. “Why did a Self-coached team (2008) demolish opposing zone defenses with ease, while another Self-coached team (2013), got really upended by zone-D’s? This 2013 team just didnt have it.”
Which goes to my point on our zone offense and our defensive inadequacies.
Look, a team of Lebron James, Dwayne Wade, and Chris Bosh would destroy any college zone. Why? They are better players.
On a continuum, 2008 was better than this year’s team.
So, do you run the same “stuff” with the 2013-14 Jayhawks as you would with Lebron James’ team? Or with the experienced bunch we had in 2008?
That’s all I’m saying. And your example was very helpful. You can’t run a spread offense if your quarterback isn’t accurate. You can’t stick with man to man defense when you have two black holes in your starting crew.
You stay in man to man and you are an historically bad defensive team (under Self)? Is that rational?
You can pass the ball around the perimeter looking for entry passes against Stanford, with a poor three point shooting team, missing your best post player, and against a team with bigger guys. Or you can adjust your attack.
Your best player gets six shots. Six. How do you get Wiggins open? Screen against the zone aggressively to create open looks. Move him to different spots. Change angles in which he cuts to receive the ball (for example, cut from baseline to wing).
See, your statement is essentially one that figuratively throws up its hands and says, we can’t win (envisioning Adrian in Rocky III).
There are other options than just sticking with Self ball. I suggested one before the tourney. I said that we would not win playing Self ball without Embiid. I suggested we play a UNC type game - fast, create more possessions, focus on offense, etc.
I ask this, as I have asked of others – please give me a comprehensive defense of Self’s offensive attack against Stanford. Tell me why the approach was sound. I am truly all ears.
