Joel's Gone
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@HighEliteMajor - I had to go back and reflect on the season a little bit.
You may be right…
Maybe Tharpe’s athletic limitations have a negative impact on his desire and effort. He was saying all the right things and he seemed to care but he just isn’t the guy we need in the driver’s seat. Tharpe does seem to get frustrated/discouraged too easily.
I don’t question Perry’s effort but would you question his heart and/or desire?
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@dtdjayhawk I would question Perry’s toughness!
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@JRyman - just for clarification that quote you copied here was HEM’s response to my original post.
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@bskeet My friend, I wish him come back, but I wish him the best whatever he chooses. The kid doesn’t owe anyone, but himself and his family. I’m a huge fan of Embiid and thought he played hard and played himself into stardom. No doubt he had a lot of natural talent, but there is also little doubt that his hard work put him in this position. I will miss him if he leaves.
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@JayhawkRock78 Lol - I don’t know about transitive laws and all that, but I did watch Dayton rebound, run, pass, shoot and attack the basket.
I respect you and your math teacher hall of fame coach, but I’ll stick with Dayton kicking our fannies had we played them last night!
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@Crimsonorblue22 Really?
Wait - are you talking physical or mental toughness? I think the guy goes all out mentally - I want him on the court, I NEED him on that court…
He could add a little more beef to his frame, but I think he is very determined and gives it his all.
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@nuleafjhawk physical toughness!
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@nuleafjhawk Well Dayton sure did “bring it” again last night. Maybe I should have qualified my statement like this. If A>B and B>C, then A>C, However in sports, that does not apply -it depends on who shows up any given day.
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Yes, a very happy consolation. In no way compensates for KU early exist but very happy for them…and me.
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Here’s the thing - if freshmen play at an extremely high level, they will likely leave.
For example, look at Tyler Ennis. He was considered either the 4th or 5th best PG in his class, roughly ranked 20th overall. He is declaring for the draft. If you had asked just about anybody last summer whether Tyler Ennis would be a one and done, I think almost everyone would have said no. Of the three guards ranked ahead of Ennis, it’s likely that both Rysheed Jordan (St. John’s) and Kasey Hill (Florida) return to school. Jordan had a rough season both in production and from an emotional standpoint (for more on that, read here. Kasey Hill has sat behind Scottie Wilbekin. Ennis played and flourished right away. As a result, he’s heading to the NBA. Hill and Jordan will be staying in school most likely.
I would say that, as far as OADs are concerned, anyone that is ranked in the top 30 probably has the talent to be a OAD if everything comes together. Had Selden played as well as someone like Ennis played this year, it’s likely 1) KU would still be playing and 2) he would not be back in Lawrence.
Do we want to avoid players like Selden, or guys like Ennis just because we know that if they play well, they will probably leave early? If so, we are taking our recruiting down from the elite power level to something less. And of course, guys like that may not be ready to contribute as freshmen. Brannen Greene was in that range. Would he have been ready to step in and play 20+ minutes a game this year?
That’s the thing with potential OADs. They are more talented than the other recruits, so the best case scenario is Carmelo Anthony, while the worst case scenario is them returning for a second year after an underwhelming freshman campaign.
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Dayton is a well disciplined team an much like Wichita, they will not beat itself. It started the season strong, went through a rough patch with lots of injuries but finished the season strong.
In many ways, Dayton is a smaller version of KU. A basketball first school with a strong and basketball savvy fan base, a nice tradition and a well known Arena that absolutely rocks during games. Obviously they cannot compete with programs like KU for the top players, but looks like they have gotten the most form the ones they have.
The previous two coaches they had Oliver Purnell (9 years) and Brian Gregory (8 years) had good success and moved to bigger programs, Purnell to Clemson and Gregory to Georgia Tech. Hopefully Archie Miller will stay at least that long.
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@justanotherfan I know it sounds stupid for some of us to say that we don’t want to recruit OAD’s. It sounds stupid to me. But I don’t.
Here’s why.
One of the (many) things I love about Kansas Basketball is the tradition. The stories. The history. I want players here that are into that as well. I want them to soak up Allen Fieldhouse. And Lawrence, Ks. Even though I don’t live in Lawrence, I consider myself to be one of " US ". I live and breathe Kansas basketball first, but I also love football.
I don’t just want players who are here because they know we are a high profile school that is going to get them a lot of press. I’m not talking specifically about AW now, just the OAD personality in general.
I don’t see a OAD ever leading us to a National Championship. Look at the type of teams that Self ALWAYS puts together. Calipari has a much greater chance of utilizing a OAD type to Kentucky’s advantage because of the style of ball that they play. And he doesn’t care about Kentucky’s overall W/L record anyway. He’s there for his own personal fame and fortune. So dumping 4-6 guys into the league every year is to his personal advantage.
Anyway, I know I’m swimming upstream, but if it were up to me, I’d seek diligently for kids that would be here 3-4 years. I still think very good experienced players trump freshmen ( as a team ) every time.
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Hard to play ahead of a player like Wilbekin. Eniis absolutely bricked his last two shot against Dayton; he really should have passed but decided to win the game by himself; with that attitude he should do well in the NBA.
About the OADs, I would perhaps rephrase and say that every player ranked in the top 30 “thinks” he has the talent to play in the NBA after one year but most don’t.
The average NBA career length is about 6 yeas, but this number is heavily biased by the number of players that last only one or two season. When you consider player that average 25 or more minutes per game the career length is about 11 years, So, the average NBA team with 15 player (only 12 active) roster, loses slightly over 1 player per year to end of career. With 30 teams in the NBA, only 30 to 45 new players will make it and stay in the NBA every year. Lately, with influx of foreign players, the number of college kids moving up is even smaller. Realistically, the odds of making it to the NBA outside of being a Lottery or first round pick, are very small.
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@ralster I take it having a sense of humor isn’t big on your list, Mr. Serious. As the movie " Stripes" says, “lighten up, Francis”.
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@nuleafjhawk your logic is inescapable. Team denotes chemistry. Teams with lesser pure talent win over teams with greater pure talent all the time. It is the stage at which that talent is refined, it’s the cohesion of the unit, and it’s the coaching.
A great, nearly perfect example is WSU vs. Kentucky. Nearly equally matched teams. One, laden with freshman five star dudes. The other, not so much.
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Didn’t Kentucky beat Wichita?
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@JayHawkFanToo Didn’t Kentucky get pasted by Bobby Morris in the NIT the previous year?
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Hem said:
“Teams with lesser pure talent win over teams with greater pure talent all the time.”
and used as an example the match up between Kentucky “laden with freshmen five start dudes” and Wichita with “not so much.” However, and as I mentioned, the “freshmen five start dudes” actually won that game. I was referring to the specific match up he mentioned and not the overall performance of the “boy wonders” at UK.
By the way, KU got pasted by TCU…yes, that TCU last year; arguably the most embarrassing loss in recent memory if not in the program history…
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@JayHawkFanToo lol - I lost track a long time ago. It’s Friday, we’re out of the tournament, I’m bored and sleepy at work and I shouldn’t be responding to any of this stuff.
But I’m having fun. Sorry if I’m running my fingernails down the blackboard today.
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No problem. I think we are all frustrated; me probably less since I still have Dayton to look forward.
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@JayHawkFanToo I’ll be rooting for them too. I have no ties whatsoever ( other than you! ), but I’m impressed with them. They hustle like crazy and all seem to have their heads on straight. I’m also intrigued with the whole coaching brothers scenario too.
I hope they hang in there!
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You’re absolutely right that there’s a limit to how many players stick in the NBA. But that number is limited by talent, not just pure numbers.
There are, right now, 360 NBA jobs. I would say pretty confidently that the 200 best basketball players in the world are all playing in the NBA right now. After the top 200, some foreign players decide to stay in their country and make more money, be a star, live closer to family, whatever. But if you are one of the best 200 or so basketball players, there is an NBA job for you - period. The other 160 spots cycle between guys that are probably anywhere from the 201st best player in the world to probably the 600th best player in the world, if there were a way to clearly rank the talents around the world.
In other words, in order to play in the NBA you have to be one of the 600 best basketball players on the planet. If you assume there are 200 million basketball players of adequate age to play in the NBA, that means you are basically talking about the top .000003% of basketball players. So yes, it is a small window.
But here’s the thing. The guys that will have a shot at going to the NBA, ultimately, are going to be mostly the guys that were highly ranked in high school. Basketball is one of the few sports that is extremely predictable in terms of development. If, for example, you want to know who the best senior basketball player in your school district will be in four years, go ask for a list of the best 10 8th graders. The best player in four years will almost certainly be on that list. He may be ranked 1st. He may be ranked 10th. But his name will show up about 95% of the time.
This is why it’s imperative that KU recruit the top players. Maybe they turn into OADs. Maybe they don’t. But the top players are the ones that give you the best shot. You use Florida as an example. One of the guys critical to their success this year - 27th ranked 2010 recruit Patric Young. He took a bit longer to develop than his classmates, but he’s a key cog now. If you skip him because you’re afraid he’s an OAD, you miss out. I bet Michigan State wouldn’t want to be without Adreian Payne (#20). Stanford probably appreciated having Dwight Powell (#25). These guys weren’t OADs, but they were in the range and, as seniors, they demonstrated that ability. Remember, Ennis was ranked in the 20s. If you don’t want a possible OAD like Ennis, you have to skip a guy like Payne or Powell or Young.
Some of the best from the class of 2011 that were still in college this year would include Nick Johnson #18, who I know Arizona would miss and Dorian Finney-Smith (#31), who wound up at Florida and is pretty important to the Gators. DeAndre Daniels (#10) is probably thought of as a huge disappointment, but he averages 12 and 6 for UConn playing 30 minutes a game.
The top players that meet expectations end up in the NBA after a year or two. The ones that don’t become, at the minimum, a rotation level player somewhere.
If we don’t want top 25-30 talent, chances are we will never have quite enough talent to go all the way. That’s not good enough for me.
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I think we are in the same page. My point was that every single HS top 30 player “thinks” he is ready to be a OAD, but in reality very few are; most will have to stay in college longer and develop in order to get a shot.
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Absolutely agreed. My point wasn’t to disagree, but to argue that once they demonstrate that they can produce, even a little bit, they are gone, whether that be after one year or four.
Your point on everyone thinking they are OAD is spot on. I don’t know how many HS players that I have talked to that thought they were D1 material. Never mind that they weren’t playing all that well, they were convinced that they were going to play D1. The truth really doesn’t set in until they really try to go to that next level and see how big that talent gap really is.
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A great example is Josh Selby. He is an incredibly gifted player but leaving early realty screwed up his potential career. Had he stayed at KU, he would developed into an elite PG and could have been what KU needed to win the title in 2012. With an extra year of experience and a title he would have easily been a lottery pick with a guaranteed contract. Instead he listened to the people that just wanted to sponge of off him, and even when he was the MVP of the NBA Summer League, he was unable to get a permanent contract and moved through several D-League teams, one Chinese team and I believe he is currently playing in Croatia. Oh, what could have been.
I don’t place Xavier Henry in this category since he was a lottery pick and has had guaranteed money every year and now he has had a re-birth with the Lakers and is having perhaps his best season to date. Same with Julian Wright since he also had guaranteed lottery money and left at the right time and an extra year might have actually exposed his flaws.
The Josh Selby story should be told to very player at KU that is considering leaving early.
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@JayHawkFanToo What you say is true. But nobody cares. Well, no players care. They just want someone to show them the money.
If Andrew Wiggins would have said, " I’m coming to Kansas and I’m staying 4 years. I"m going to enjoy my college experience, I’m going to learn how to actually play this game and I’m going to have fun and hopefully win a NC or two" - I’d be out in front of the Fieldhouse right now sculpting another statue to go beside Phog Allen. And Phog would have his arm around Andrew. Or possibly bowing down to him.
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The Embiid-Shepherd has been debated time and again. My question for all is: Considering the way the season and the NCAA tournament have played out so far, would you have preferred likely OAD Andrew Harrison be signed by Kansas? Or would you have preferred that Bill Self and the rest of the coaches continue to invest in the development of Naadir Tharpe?
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@HighEliteMajor No. My logic is that with Joel, we had a chance to be special. Do I think we would have won the NC? Probably not, since the team overall did not develop as we had hoped. Also, even without Shepherd we have a chance to win a NC in the next couple of years…depending on how things play out.
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@Wigs2 Well I wouldn’t have wanted Harrison, because despite his talent, he has a reputation as being selfish. It appears he was part of the problem with Kentucky playing “selfish” in Calipari’s words earlier this season. Now, I’ll admit they look like they could now win a NC. I think Harrison may have had problems here…he is awfully good though.
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No problem with not wanting Harrison to play here. I can’t say that I wanted him here either. But you can replace his name with any of the other potential or presumed OADs. My logic is that it doesn’t make sense to question logic of bringing in Embiid or Wiggins and at the same time be upset that Self continues to try to develop and use Tharpe.
