KU 3pt% Last 14 Games, or Riding the Waves of the Three Point Seas
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KU v. Opponent 3pt%
KU v. KSU 45%
KU v. OSU 36.4%
KU v. TCU 33.3%
KU v. Baylor 19.4% <------- TROUGH
KU v. ISU 34.6%
KU v. WVU 31.8%
KU v. OU 55.2% <------- PEAK
KU v. TTECH 44%
KU v. TEXAS 43.8%
KU v. OSU 35% <-------TROUGH
KU v. OSU 40%
KU v. KSU 39.3%
KU v. WVU 55.6% <--------PEAK
KU v. Penn 41.2%
KU v. Seton Hall ?%
The last 14 games indicate a KU team that is like a basketball vessel sailing up and down and up and down the swells of 3 Point seas.
The last 14 games show show two troughs and two peaks.
The first trough cycle from peak to peak was 7 games, or so, with a DEEP trough of 19% in the middle.
The second trough cycle from peak to peak was again 7 games, with a shallower trough in the middle of 35%.
The highs for both cycles were 55%.
KU appears to be entering a third trough cycle and appears to be two games in with the third game coming today versus Seton Hall.
Based on the previous two cycles, we can expect something less than the 41% KU shot against Penn. KU will likely shoot between 35-38% today, again based on the pattern of the two most recent cycles.
KU can win at the 35-38% level of trey shooting, if KU can drive it and score short treys inside, protects, strips, blocks, and boards, and if the other team isn’t too scorching hot and turns it over for us.
Seton Hall would be an easy W if KU were to shoot unexpectedly well from trey. KU could beat Seton Hall on an off shooting night if Mitch and Silvio can be productive, and if Doke can give 15 minutes.
Round Two of the tournament the next weekend is when KU will apparently really need Doke to over come a BAD outside shooting game.
Likely the bad shooting game (somewhere between 19 and 35%) will come the first game next weekend. But it could come the second game, also. Either way, it is almost a given that Round Two (Sweet 16 and Elite Eight) is the weekend that KU is going to have to rely almost solely on a combo of BAD BALL driving and playing through the bigs, if this KU team wants to enter the Final Four to play two games on the ascent to a new peak of high percentage outside shooting.
Rock Chalk!
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Thanks for the numbers. I feel the same as you that we are due for a couple games in the 30% range from three, which is honestly best for this team. We need to save our really good shooting night for the elite eight and trudge through the early rounds while relying on gritty play to advance. Save the hot shooting game for Duke or Michigan state, imo. Can’t solely rely on driving the ball and playing inside to beat either of those teams.
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Keep in mind the spacing of the games during the regular season. It’s basically two games over a week instead of two games one day apart. This may make a difference.
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Careful you said:
Keep in mind the spacing of the games during the regular season. It’s basically two games over a week instead of two games one day apart. This may make a difference.
Great point.
