JoJo
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Joel Embiid tiers: Projecting the NBA’s least predictable season
Fun ESPN insider article.
Partial excerpt
Tier 1: The birth of a superstar
What if Embiid stays healthy and gets better?
EDITOR’S PICKS
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NBA calendar: Every important date from now until the playoffs Here’s our guide to every key date and deadline that will shape roster decisions from now until the postseason. In this world, Embiid plays at least 75 games and cracks 30 MPG. As Ben Simmons and Markelle Fultz take on a large percentage of the playmaking, Embiid’s massive 16.3 percent turnover rate subsides, which works wonders for his efficiency ratings. With JJ Redick also in town, defenses can’t close on Embiid as they did last season. There are fewer shots to go around, but he responds by elevating his field goal percentage from 47 percent to 53 percent, the league average for starting centers.
Last season, the 76ers allowed just 99.1 points per 100 possessions with him on the floor, a figure that would have ranked No. 1 in the NBA over the course of the entire season. Once again, he has the same impact, only now it’s for far more than just 20 percent of the team’s total minutes. At 30 minutes per game over 75 games, Embiid is on the floor for 57 percent of the team’s minutes, which is enough to vault the 76ers from 17th to inside the top 10 in defensive rating.
The end result: 23.9 PPG, 9.3 RPG and 3.0 BPG, plus a trip to Los Angeles for the All-Star Game. With turnovers cut in half and increased efficiency, Embiid would be squarely in the top-10 conversation, though not yet knocking on the top-5 door as Philadelphia simply has too far to climb to warrant consideration for the truly top tier of superstar players.
Assuming he doesn’t reach an extension with the 76ers before the Oct. 16 deadline and hits restricted free agency next summer, he’s be able to command any offer he wants.
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I so want to see JoJo just tear it up. I hope he gets the chance to show the world just how good he can be for a full season.
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I just wonder if Embiid can stay healthy over a full season. He’s played 59 total games since 2013-14 - 28 at KU, 31 last season in Philly. That’s 59 out of a possible 281, or about 21%. In some ways, this is his last chance to prove that he can stay healthy, at least in Philly. They can’t commit to building around a guy that is never going to be on the floor. The talent isn’t at issue. Durability is. I’m rooting for him, but history suggests that big men don’t magically get healthier as they age.
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GO JOJO!!
