THE NEW TRIFECTA
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Rules distribute cost and benefit and so determine choice.
Choice determines outcome.
Rule changes redistribute cost and benefit.
Change the rules, or just their enforcement, and choices change.
Change rules in complex environments and unforeseen choices and unforeseen outcomes follow.
Basketball games manifest emerging complexity.
Foul rules are changed and enforcement has been sharply changed to clean up the game.
Initially all we noticed was disrupted flow and frequent stoppage.
Now we appear to begin to see a move to more inside shooting pursuing a 2pt basket and a FT.
This could lead to more slashing from the perimeter and less PT for non slashing trey gunners on the wing.
The 55% 2pt basket close in with the 70-80% FT could be the new trifecta.
But downstream, one might see so much dense packing that the average distance of true trey attempts outside shrinks to almost on the trey stripe, which could raise true trifecta percentages.
Grasp the difficult to foresee ripple effects of rule interventions in basketball–a big money child’s game.
Imagine the hubris of those that want to make war preemptively and reconstitute whole societies in order to deny some competitors some oil and gas, or some game board positions.
Unforeseen consequences are us.
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We’ll need to rethnk how we calculate eFG% …
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With the new rules we need to start tracking the number of fouls forced. We can give out an award at the end of the year to the player that has the most forced fouls per minute. I’m guessing Marcus Smart is leading the nation in this stat. Self and fellow coaches will start recruiting the top foul forcers in the nation just like they recruit the 3ballers.
@jaybate Maybe the NCAA gets even more nostalgic. After the longing for the old’n days of high scoring they move forward to eliminate the “new fashion” trifecta all together…
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I had posted this last night on another thread, and jb had noted the “new trifecta” suggestion in reply. So I thought a re-post here might be worth it -
I decided to look at the numbers a bit. My impression during the first 11 games of this season is that three point shooting has been our Achilles’ heel. Not just percentage, but also the low volume of threes. So I thought I’d go to the stats that matter, those of NCAA Champions, to see where this version of Jayhawks stack up as far as three point baskets per game.
I looked at the last 12 NCAA Champions. Not surprisingly, the 2013-14 Jayhawks are well behind national title pace. This year’s Jayhawks have made 4.90 three point shots per game (54 in 11 games).
In the last 12 seasons, no NCAA title winner has made less than 5.31 per game, which was the low (Syracuse in 2003). The rates per game – 2013 Louisville 5.75; 2012 Kentucky 5.61; 2011 UConn 5.87; 2010 Duke 7.58; 2009 North Carolina 6.94; 2008 Kansas 6.77; 2007 Florida 7.42; 2006 Florida 7.41; 2005 North Carolina 7.48; 2004 UConn 6.38; 2003 Syracuse 5.31; and 2002 Maryland 6.02.
The average three pointers made per game by NCAA title winners was 6.54 over that 12 year stretch. Again, KU is now at 4.90 three pointers made per game.
This stat isn’t the definitive guide to winning a title. It’s just a piece of the puzzle. But my impression has been that we don’t have an excellent three point shooter logging regular minutes. We might have some decent ones, but no “excellent” shooters.
Our three point percentage is low, too, at 32.1%. No NCAA title winner has shot the three that poorly. But there are three that were in that ballpark. Louisville at 33.3% last season, UConn in 2010 shot 32.9%, and Syracuse was 34.4% in 2003.
But our threes made per game is significantly behind where we need to be. I have suggested that we can’t shoot threes at our current rate and compete for a national championship. We have to be able to keep up with teams that may get hot for stretches. I’m just not sure that the shooters we are playing as part of the rotation can pick up the pace.
But I do see three on the bench that might fit the bill … I’m just not sure any of the three are fit for Bill.
**As an aside, a completely startling stat – Syracuse in 2003 had three shooters account for 527 of their 540 three point attempts. That is really amazing. The rest of the team shot a total of 13 threes.
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@HighEliteMajor Too bad 03 Syracuse didn’t continue that trend of 5.31 per game…
3-Point Goals: 11-18, 0.611 (C Anthony 3-5, G McNamara 6-10, K Duany 2-3).
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@jaybate 1.0 The idea of unforeseen consequences to rules adjustments covers a large gamut.
The biggest one now can be seen in the NFL where players, seeking to avoid helmet to helmet contact, now target knees. And players hate it.
One that will arise (so perhaps not entirely unforeseen) in MLB is if they ban homeplate collisions, then baserunners that slide into a catcher blocking the plate will be subject to very significant leg injuries. That will happen even if they require the catcher to give the runner access to the plate. And if they require the catcher to give the runner a corner of the plate, then we’ll all be subjected to more “judgment of the umpire”, and we know how that usually turns out.
On a more macro level, the unforeseen consequences of the new rules interpretations is really just a worse basketball experience for all involved. Their goal was to create a more free flowing game with more scoring. What they’ve created is a more disjointed game, with less flow, with wildly inconsistent calls related to legal guarding position, and outcomes even more governed by the whim of the officiating whistle. The increased scoring has come at the free throw line.
Very few like it. And even those that say they like it or that it is succeeding, like Jay Bilas, seem like little kids insisting that they like eating their brussel sprouts.
Not what was intended, I’m sure.
@Kip_McSmithers - Sorry to poke at an open wound there. Between that and our poor free throw shooting … we’re still in the game late? Ugh.
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Twas the night before christmas and all through kubuckets many new topics, I wondered what it might be. And to my wondering eye it appeared, Jaybate is here.
The unforeseen consequences of our most valuable Jayhawk @approxinfinity’s grand experiment is the appearance of one, I won’t risk blasphemy, one Jaybate to add to our growing list of expert opinionators.
We all knew he couldn’t stay away. We all knew of the siren song of Jayhawk talk without malice would slowly lure us to our new addiction.
Or I could say welcome JB!
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I wonder what the consequence of banning tailgating at the Super Bowl will be…increased concession sales and more profit to the owners?
American traditions are disappearing before our eyes; who would have imagined that the Christmas tree is no longer the Christmas tree but a holiday tree because calling it by its true name offends 1 percent of the population; never mind that changing the name offends the other 99 percent. Maybe in the not too distant future “Jayhawk” will be banned because it cause nightmares to our neighbor to the East and it will then be called the “ornithologically incorrect avian endangered unit” or OIAEU for short…go OIAEUs…maybe Coach consonants will want to coach team vowels.
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@jayhawkfantoo was enjoying your rant until you threatened for coach K to coach Kansas. That made me shudder a little bit.
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@JayHawkFanToo PHOF!
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@wissoxfan83 : great to hear from the most knowledgeable fan on the bayou!
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For OIAEU
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@HighEliteMajor : thx for reposting and apologies for not attributing. Your post was the entire trigger for my take. I meant to and forgot. Lots of rust to knock off.
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@jaybate 1.0 Beautifully said in the first 5 verses, but regarding “trifecta”, would that still be the effect of our inability to shoot the 3s consistently?
On the other hand, Conner still plays. Does it means Coach Self has the same faith in him like he does in Tarik? So should we expect a break-out game from him as well?
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@HighEliteMajor Very informative analysis. Great job.
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@jaybate 1.0 “the most knowledgeable fan on the bayou” That’s like saying I’m the best snowman in the Sahara desert, the most popular congressman, the most unbiased ESPN commentator, the most honest lawyer, the Kentucky fan with the best teeth, the Missouri fan with the newest car, … you get the idea!
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@wissoxfan83: I haven’t laughed that hard in three weeks! PHOF! Now, make that “one of the most knowledgeable fans”. Period.
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@Wishawk: Your question about Conner Frankamp is a good and timely one. The more Embiid develops as a dominant shot blocker and a scoring 5, and the more Tarick can play along side Embiid to complement Embiid, with offensive rebounding, the more KU can afford Conner and his lack of height, even with Naa, or Mason on point. And interior defense with the range of shot blocking that Embiid and Black offer, means Conner can overplay up and under defense on taller wingmen and not worry when they blow by. And on the offensive end, the more Embiid and Black play together productively, the more the opponents HAVE to sag to double the ball side big and the more the opposite side wing has to sag to help with the back side big positioning for a dish off by the ball side big. All of this sagging means a quick ball reversal ensures even a short wing like Conner Frankamp would be getting open looks almost every time down the floor on reversal. Conner is definitely NOT out of the picture yet. The spot is going to go to the first guy that can feed the post, not turn it over and make shots. Andrew White seemed to have the spot iced, but wasn’t feeding the post much and wasn’t making many shots. Conner got a look and couldn’t make shots. Brannen Greene seemed to come out of his funk and have the spot iced after some good energy, some protection, and making a few shots. But then Brannen Greene did not sustain his virtues, and AW3 was injured, so Self gave Conner another sniff. Conner guarded and kept it moving but did not feed the post particularly well, and didn’t pot the triceratop. So Self just said screw it and played Selden more minutes, and returned to playing Mason and Tharpe together. I don’t think Mason and Tharpe together are viable long run, unless either one of them suddenly discovers how to make the trey. Bottom line Self is looking for one of Brannen, AW3, or Conner to play a game the way they each apparently practice. First guy to do it gets lots of PT in backup. Not saying Conner will be the one. Just saying that Conner becomes more and more feasible as the bigs become more and more dominant and in shot blocking to cover up perimeter mistakes.
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@HighEliteMajor Good stuff. Our point guard tandem has been shooting less, which should help our 3 point fg %. I am really excited seeing Frank/Naadir taking less than 10 shots a game combined each of the last two games. Better shot selection should be a natural result of this team evolving . I’m betting we shoot more threes, with a higher fg% over our next 10 games. Me likey this team.
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@wissoxfan83 - " the best snowman in the Sahara desert…"
About two weeks ago, for some reason, I got to wondering if it had ever snowed in the Sahara desert, so I looked it up. Yes, Wikipedia…
I thought my wife should know this valuable information so I announced to her, out of the blue, " February 18, 1979 ", expecting that she would know what I was talking about.
Her reply - " Oh - that was the last time you had a good idea. "
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@jaybate 1.0 Welcome back to the fold Jaybate! Happy Holidays
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@jaybate 1.0 P.S. keep us posted on when your book is due out.
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@Lulufulu85: I will. But it could be quite awhile. I am slower and it felt like Mt. Everest even before my issues. But what the heck! I found it, so I gotta go for it. Walk the talk and climb the rhyme, you know.
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@HighEliteMajor HEM, you have made a super presentation with these 3 pt. stats. Gonna be interesting to see if the rule changes warp customary 3 pt. trends nationally. Already looks that way, but I have not studied much further than Jayhawk statistics. At this juncture, we do not stack up well with other Big 12 schools in respect to outside shooting, pre-conference. But then, we are playing more quality competition than most of our league cohorts. I am amped to watch our “league ONLY stats” develop, now that our newcomers (esp. JoJo) are soaring.
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While I agree that 3 point shooting is definitely a priority in reaching the Final Four and winning the championship, and that it is an aspect that we are lacking in, I think that it is something that we will see take care of itself within a couple weeks. This team will be better from three once Self decides on who gets the most minutes(White, Greene, or Frankamp). Those three have not had enough chances to show how good they are. Once he chooses, we will be destroying zones because there is too much to try to guard.
That said, I believe that we will see the emergence of the last perimeter player and therefore the three point gunner we need to get to the Final Four. A good outside shooter opens up driving lanes and the inside for the bigs, which means that they would be virtually unguardable. Remember, no one thought that the 2012 Jayhawks had a chance at going to the Title Game, and yet they did, and this team has so much more than that team and any other team besides the 08 team ever had.
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Twas the night before christmas and all through kubuckets many new topics, I wondered what it might be. And to my wondering eye it appeared, Jaybate is here.
The unforeseen consequences of our most valuable Jayhawk @approxinfinity’s grand experiment is the appearance of one, I won’t risk blasphemy, one Jaybate to add to our growing list of expert opinionators.
We all knew he couldn’t stay away. We all knew of the siren song of Jayhawk talk without malice would slowly lure us to our new addiction.
Or I could say welcome JB!
Geez, what a brown-noser. Like you’re the only jayhawk down here in da bayou. lol (beer)
