Florida's Formula
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Florida looks like the best team.
Long starting guards with one short backup for short match up and one long backup to stay long.
Low TOs.
A bunch of LSAs that guard hard, get up and alter, and board.
Two starting 40% trey shooters on perimeter that can also drive with either hand and finish strong for a bucket and a FT at the iron without TOs.
Average .46 FG for team.
+1 on 3pt made average vs opponent.
Massive edge in FTAs.
LSAs that hold opponents to .397 FG.
Plus 5 rebounding.
Close on strips.
Edge on blocks.
Small lead the first half.
Huge lead second half.
Better or even coach.
So: where did KU fall short even with Embiid able to play? I will give you a hint. It wasn’t on opponent’s FG%, so it wasn’t on defense. It wasn’t FT %. And it wasn’t on rebounding. One final hint. Tharpe was at most half the problem, but maybe not even half since he was never designated to be one of the first two options on the perimeter. Hmmm. So: where did KU NOT MEASURE UP, even with Embiid playing, to this contender profile?
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Experience.
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I know we weren’t in the mix really but I always thought Nick Johnson would have impacted the program immensely from the point guard spot.
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NO matter the score, no matter the time on the clock they don’t get rattled, they don’t get over confident. They keep playing their game.
They don’t rush bad shots, they don’t try to score to quickly when its not needed unless it’s there. They just play very consistent from tip to buzzer.
If they are up 12 points with 10 minutes or up 2 with 58 seconds they just keep their heads, no panic. That’s impressive. But they are an older team that has played a lot together.
They kept saying how there wasn’t a first end pick on the Florida team, if they win the title that will just someones attention.
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@jaybate 1.0 I would say perimeter shooting and turnovers. I can’t remember who wrote up ( maybe Tait) a chart on kusports that showed what we shot at the rim, and it was astronomically high. That was the reason our FG% was at the top of the leader board in the country. When teams took that away, our offense was generally abysmal. Without looking, I will bet our 3 point shooting % are far lower than average. Take away the dunk, and we were less than an average team.
Our ball handling, from an entire team perspective was one of the worst I’ve seen from a KU team. We had trouble passing, dribbling, holding onto the ball the entire year. Any form of pressure worked tremendously against us.
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JB, I want to see you write on Wisconsin’s formula
One second half segment Sunday highlights the entire problem with the team. Shortly after we began the press and seeing some results we had a flurry of missed shots and rebounds. It’s around the 7:30 mark of the 2nd half. These NCAA games are all available to watch still at http://www.ncaa.com/march-madness-live?SR=mml2014_paid_search&utm_source=adcenter&utm_medium=cpc&utm_term=ncaa_games&utm_content=March_Madness_2014_NCAA&utm_campaign=MPUS__MarchMadness2014__Sustaining
Missed shot, offensive rebound, crazy wild shot, offensive rebound, crazy wild pass to turnover to immediate turnover to another crazy wild shot (all of these are misses by the way) to offensive rebound to crazy wild shot and defensive rebound,
Zero poise in a pressure packed situation. I was screaming to coach to use a TO to calm everyone down. Mostly it was a lack of experience that led to this. How many times on @JesseNewell’s live blog did we write ‘wow, that was a dumb pass’? Must have set a live blog record!
Playing with a bunch of freshmen is a crapshoot. Look at Calipari! NC one year with freshmen, NIT OAD the next, to 8th seed (maybe one of the worst seedings of seeding history) and still dancing.
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Looking back, I could have programmed ‘Wow, that was a dumb pass’ into a keystroke on the keyboard it was used so much this season.
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They looked good against UCLA. I am so bummed. We would’ve matched up well against Florida. IF we beat Stanford and Dayton. Dayton is looking really good too. Dayton’s confidence is too high right now and are very dangerous.
Let me preface just one major position. Every team had us beat at the pg.
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@truehawk93 Not sure we could have kept pace with Dayton’s guards without a huge amount of turnovers. They were pesky guys got the Stanford bigs frustrated and in foul trouble. KU is deeper on the bench than Stanford but not sure I would have wanted KU to play Dayton the way they looked last night.
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One other thing I’d add to Florida’s Formula.
Senior
Senior
Senior
Senior
Sophomore
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How about KU last year…
5th year Senior
5th year Senior
5th year Senior
Senior
Red shirt Freshman (Lottery pick)
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@JayHawkFanToo Great point but I think that last years team was the best formula for us. We just blew a big lead. If we win that game against Michigan I honestly think we go to the title game.
We had so much leadership, incredible defense, multiple guys who could shoot and as you said a lottery pick. I am still hurting from that loss. That game is #1 on my list of games that hurt due to the 5th year senior guys and the amazing starting lineup we had. The Stanford loss is not remotely close on my list.
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The best team does not necessarily win the Tournament. The team that gets hot and (very) lucky at tournament time usually does. Look at the '88 KU team; if that tournament gets replayed ten times how many time do you think KU wins it? Or the '08 Championship game, if not for Mario’s “miracle” shot, Memphis wins that game.
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Over the last 10 years, the number 1 overall seed has finished like this, starting from 2004 - round of 32, title game, sweet 16, champion, final four, elite eight, round of 32, sweet 16, champion, champion. If you’re the best team, over the last decade, that’s an 80% chance at playing in the Sweet 16 and a coin flip to be in the Final Four.
Obviously, the best teams are still the most successful, but how successful?
Going back to 1979 (the year seeding started), the champion was not a 1 or 2 seed only nine times - 1981 (Indiana, 3). 1983 (NC State, 6), 1985 (Villanova, 8 ), 1988 (Kansas, 6), 1989 (Michigan, 3), 1997 (Arizona , 4), 2003 (Syracuse, 3), 2006 (Florida, 3) and 2011 (UConn, 3). That’s 9 times in the 35 years that one of the top 2 teams didn’t win the title.
But here’s something even crazier. A non top 2 seed has made it to the title game only 13 other times. The national final has only featured 22 teams that were not considered to be among the top 8 in the country at the start of the tournament. 70 teams. 48 were either 1 or 2 seeds.
Let’s expand to the Final Four overall - 30 other teams that were not 1 or 2 seeds made it to the Final Four. That’s 51 of the 140 teams in the Final Four that were not 1’s or 2’s. But that means that 89 of the Final Four teams, or 63% were one of the top 8 teams, and 68% of the finalists were. But when it comes to being the champion, 74% of the champions are among the top 8 teams. The cream rises.
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@justanotherfan Your signature should be hanging in the Kansas locker room.
Work for success, not for praise.
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@JayHawkFanToo Totally. I would say the best team wins it all about 50% of the time?
I was just saying I loved the group of guys we had last year. Older guys who were tested with a young guy like B Mac who could add some NBA level athleticism.
I would say the 88 team wins that game about 1 out of 100 times. The 08 team was stacked and if we play Memphis 10 times I think we split.
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But when it comes to being the champion, 74% of the champions are among the top 8 teams.
@justanotherfan Thank you for this measured look at success. Just curious… did you do that analysis yourself or take it from an article?
In any case, your post makes a point that I’ve wanted to raise many times when folks have asked the question: Would you trade our B12 championships for a National Championship? I equate this question with a similar question: What good is a bunch of B12 championships if you flame out early in the Tourney? The only thing that people remember is a National Championship.
Your post resolves this:
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The B12 champion is more likely to be a No. 1 or 2 seed in the tournament.
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A No 1 or 2 seed in the tournament is more likely to be National Champion.
[By the way, if anyone could do analysis of how often the national champion is also the regular season champion of their conference, I think that would be a fascinating statistic.]
This is important. It explains why Bill Self’s record is so valuable: statistically, he’s due another championship already! Folks, it’s going to happen if he keeps winning at this rate. Sooner or later, he’s going to win another title. And if the drought goes too much longer, the chance of back-to-back titles increases.
I know that sounds like statistical wet dream, but the numbers tend to work out. Self’s winning percentage is over 80% over a 10 year span - and that is against strong competition. Not 80% in a Missouri Valley decade.
All that winning may seem like it’s for nothing when a season comes up short like last year and this year… but it still counts. The Jayhawks are due.
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Coach Self has stated many time that winning the conference is the most important goal every year, since winning the conference puts you in a good position to do well in the National Tournament. I agree.
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@jaybate 1.0 Is Wilbiken (sp?) long?
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@JayHawkFanToo I have made that point about being lucky many times in discussions. In 88 things really fell our way…Pitt getting beat, KSU beating Purdue,etc.
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In 88 things really fell our way…Pitt getting beat, KSU beating Purdue,etc.
@Hawk8086
And facing familiar foes in the final three games. And the Final Four hosted in Kansas City.mmm Good memories!
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@JayHawkFanToo When I see that coach Self says winning the conference is the most important goal every season, I feel like jumping off a bridge …
But you connect the dots there … winning the conference will put you in a good position to get a #1 seed, which equates to more tourney success.
@Hawk8086 - Weren’t we “lucky” to get VCU? Ugh. Then we would have had Butler. Then a UConn team that we would have overwhelmed.
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@HighEliteMajor KU couldn’t hit a bull in the ass in that VCU game. The 4th most disappointing loss in my memory, only behind Michigan last year, the 66’ loss to Texas Western, & the Granddaddy of them all the 57’ triple OT loss to North Carolina in Municipal Auditorium. ALL extreme downers, just some a whole helluva lot worse than others. The one this year doesn’t even come close to a couple of the others as far as disappointments to me. And just for the record, I’ve seen very, very few freshman players through the years that you could depend on at crunch time. The stage just becomes too big more times than not. Hell, Wilt was a sophomore for cryin out loud. !!
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But you connect the dots there … winning the conference will put you in a good position to get a #1 seed, which equates to more tourney success.
NOOOOOOO!!! Every time @HighEliteMajor says that being a #1 seed improves tournament success, I feel like jumping off a bridge… Match ups matter so much more than seeding that it’s not even funny. I know, I know, #1 seeds win the title 80% of the time, but that just proves that the best teams are frequently seeded properly, not that seeding improves your chances. That’s like concluding that coughing causes colds because people with colds are always coughing. Difference between causation and correlation. Learn it
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This post is deleted!
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@HighEliteMajor I didn’t say we always took advantage of being lucky! Only that often titles are won with the help of some luck.
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@globaljaybird
" The one this year doesn’t even come close to a couple of the others as far as disappointments to me. "
I AGONIZED over Bucknell, Bradley, Northern Iowa, VCU and most recently Michigan (possibly the worst meltdown I’ve ever witnessed?).
Stanford was practically a relief. It was expected. I felt dang lucky to get by …Eastern Kentucky (there’s something a KU fan should never have to say). This year we had a roster full of talent. But it was not a good team.
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@nuleafjhawk I did think they would get to the sweet 16 but never thought they played Self type ball even when Joel was on the floor. The zone was easier for them to score against with Embid out there, but they were mostly ineffective still running the hi lo. Perry had stretches this year where he was awesome & times when he just seemed to be an enigma. He & Tharpe were huge disappointment’s to me, & both will be vying for pt in 14/15. Perry is no shoe-in far as I’m concerned. Word is now that another transfer or two from Va Tech & Temple have been contacted by KU, so Bill is continually trying to gain more options, increase competition, & ready for more OAD early outs, or transfers of his own. We’ve speculated about Greene, White, & Conner, but the paint is also crowded & Lucas could play many more minutes at many other schools. LJW says the 6’-11" kid from VT would be eligible for 3 yrs starting in 15-16. Big wheels just keep on turnin’ nuleaf. Guess I’m too old fashioned-I don’t like all the merry go round krap that CBB has become. When a kid commits, he should be bound unless the coach bails or a true family hardship determines otherwise. Just sayin…IMO
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@globaljaybird
Were you actually around when KU lost the 57 triple OT game? If so, wow! If not why that game? To me it’s just a game in the ‘ancient’ annuls of the sport that doesn’t come close to resembling the modern game and March Madness.
Extreme downer #1 for me was in 97. Best KU team I’ve seen. 03 is next, 2nd best KU team I’ve seen. Then tying for the bronze medal is all of the disappointments, Duke in '86, which was my first year on campus, we’d beat Louisville twice that season and then were robbed by the officiating crew. Other disappointments were UTEP, Rhode Island, UNI, Bucknell, Bradley and lastly VCU. Been a lot of them. But two championships is the envy of about 99% of the other NCAA teams out there so in that perspective, it’s not all bad!
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@wissoxfan83-Yes I was & also the 52 NC game with Big Clyde Lovellette. To this day he’s still the only guy to lead the nation in scoring & win a NC the same season. My Dad ran track & field in the 25’ & 26’ KU Relays & Drake Relays & also played hoops for the Topeka Y in the early 1930s’. I not only have his Kansas letter sweater but many of his real gold & silver track medals, plus several pewter loving cups (trophies with handles) on marble & granite bases. I’m Jayhawk born & bred & so are my boys, through & through…ROCK CHALK !!
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@globaljaybird WOW just WOW!!! You have decades worth of perspective.
Question, trying to set aside the internet, 24 hr sports channels and social media, has our expectations for national titles increased over the years?
It seems to me we’re all a little greedy (I’m fine it!). Since 1991 both HCRW and HCBS have won at a <80% clip. Did we have the same expectations during the Ted Owens years?
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Oh gawd the nightmare just got worse with uk making it to the F4. Are you freaking kidding me? This season just got even worse, wow, what else could go against anything I planned.
BTW- My bracket is totally busted. I had KU and MSU as my possible F4 and NC. That changed today, but my worse bracket still has Wisconsin as my sole surviving team. Congrats to those who picked Florida because now I think they’ll be the NC.
I have to admit that UF and uk are playing possibly the best bball right now. UConn is beginning to slip a bit. But if UConn get’s passed UF, they could win it all. I just don’t think uk’s youth and inexperience will win out. They have the talent, but WE all know talent isn’t quite enough. It could be, but odds are won’t be enough with the remaining teams. Lastly, what is a kick in the pants is that each of these teams have the key position: A FREAKIN’ PG…ugh, ugh, ugh
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@VailHawk Absolutely. When guys my age were young the tv went to test pattern at midnite & there was no sportcasts on the news. If you got a baseball game a week, that was really cool. Dizzy Dean & Pee Wee Reese did a game each weekend for the Cards & watched many of those through “snow” (interference) on the screen with an antennae on the roof. Dad & I used to watch the Gillette Friday night fights from MSG back in the mid 50’s & I thought that was so neat. I actually boxed lightweight up to welterweight from about 14 to 23. Have really seen stars & tweety birds when knocked out so don’t let anyone tell you that’s bs.-it’s not !! Newspapers were our internet & sometimes you had to be patient almost to the point of forgetfulness to find out the outcome of a game days later when finally in copy. If the neighbors dog chewed up the paper there was hell to pay. Yeah, I think expectations were pretty high under Owens, but that’s just me. We had some damn good teams with NBA caliber players & some teams not so good with players that were close to that level. But I’ve always remained a loyal diehard phanatic fan for KU BB regardless of the W’s & L’s.Have said many, many times, it’s in my DNA.
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I agree, Having UK make it to the Final Four is like adding salt to the wound.
One of my brackets is doing well (5th place) and all the bracket above me are done…so I have a shot…
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I ran those numbers myself. I agree that a regular season title is important. But my bigger point is that winning those championships should also be reflective of the fact that you are among the top 8 teams in the country in terms of true talent.
It is presumable that the #1 seeds are 4 of the best 6 teams in the country. It’s also presumable that the 2 seeds are among the best 10 teams in the country.
This year is a little bizarre in that UK has 1/2 level talent, but they were an 8 seed. That throws the model off because I doubt there has ever been a team seeded that low with that much raw talent.
And that’s the real point - the talented teams generally win out. It just so happens that usually those teams are the ones that are ranked high throughout the year because it’s rare to come across a team like Kentucky that doesn’t put it together until their conference tournament even though they have top 5 talent.
Similarly, UConn has demonstrated their talent this year. After all, the Huskies are the last team that beat Florida. They get another crack on Saturday. The other team to beat UF this year? Wisconsin. It’s just really bizarre how that works. But that points to the true talent level of all of these teams.
