Posts made by Jesse Newell

5th-best player for the season. I’ve been highly critical of him in the past, but he’s made some real improvements this year and has been a perfectly acceptable role player. Those have value too.

Good stuff, HEM. I too went back to the tape to see what I had missed with Traylor … only to realize I hadn’t missed anything.

Not drugs

Bill Self’s story of toughness: “He was lucky that he ever walked again.”

Just to add to the discussion … would be shocked if Jamari didn’t start Wednesday. Self wouldn’t tip his hand on the big men, but he seems pleased with Jamari this year like every other.

As far as Traylor’s rebounding goes, I’ wrote about it here last year.

One final thing: The LJW’s Tom Keegan asked Self specifically about Traylor playing despite his poor rebounding numbers yesterday. Here’s the transcript:

Q. You had a lot of big guys, where can Traylor get on the floor, he hasn’t been a great rebounder, he’s not a naturally great scorer. Is it being disruptive?

BILL SELF: I think so. Just energy. Jamari has actually played better than he’s played at any point in time in his career or the last two weeks, so I don’t know who will start tomorrow night, but he certainly would be a guy that deserves to start as much as anybody else right now, but that doesn’t mean we’ll start him, just because we want to look at different combinations. We already know how he and Perry can play together, we may want to look at some different stuff. Not tomorrow night, Wednesday night.

Here’s what it’s like to be Brandon Schneider. Have to assume Self goes through a lot of same tasks daily …

@HighEliteMajor said:

@Jesse-Newell Excellent … thanks for posting.

Possible questions for Self:

1. Who is the presumptive starter at the 2 – Graham or Svi.? If the season were to start today.
2. Is Selden cemented as the 3.? Meaning, that’s his spot.
3. If you were to rank Mickelson, Lucas, and Traylor as far as minutes now, who would get the most, who would get the least?
4. If Diallo is not eligible to play, who is the odds on favorite to start the most games next to Ellis in the post?
5. Did you make any tweaks or changes to your offensive system from last season? Any hints on what those might be?
6. You said that you “learned a lot” from your experience at the WUG offensively, What exactly did you learn?
7. Can you explain why Traylor’s rebound rates are so incredibly low (meaning, as far a post players getting regular minutes, his is the worst rebounding rate aside from Justin Wesley since Self has been at Kansas).

I asked him No. 6 a few weeks ago. He was pretty vague will going back to the “giving players more freedom offensively” answer. I thought his previous comment about “learning a lot” was interesting too.

For No. 1, I can almost guarantee (if healthy) that it’s Graham. The coaches love him and want two ballhandlers out there together as much as possible.

@drgnslayr said:

@Jesse-Newell

I hate to beat a dead horse…

But I do have the golden question… I mean… the fools golden question!

Even if Cheick gains his eligibility, there will still be a question on whether or not we can effectively score in the low post.

Will we be running our typical hi-lo offense again? (regardless of the status of Diallo)

Will he be critical of our ability to maintain a high % from trey this year? Will it always be “fools gold?”

At crunch time do we go totally towards an emphasis on low post scoring? Even when it isn’t working?

And then other questions…

Will you be trying Wayne at the 3? Or… have you committed him to the 3 so we’ll watch him all year learn his new position?

Is Svi really as improved as some say? Should we expect him to earn a lot of PT this year, and if so, will it be at the 2 or 3?

I hear you on the 3-point questions. Though sometimes I feel like this when I bring it up …

Selden at the 3 is intriguing to me as well. He still will have to be the backup 2, correct? If not, who is? Svi? Definitely not Greene, which leaves his minutes in doubt if Selden is all 3 this year.

What would we say WUG ball is? Selden at the 3 was probably the biggest difference, I’m guessing.

Love the avatar, by the way. Perhaps the greatest iPhone photo I have ever taken!

@ParisHawk said:

@Jesse-Newell Is Self still interested in continuing WUG ball during the season?

Great suggestions, guys.

This one will be addressed tomorrow too, but CBS Sports’ Jon Rothstein had today that Self said Greene was 80 percent and hoped he would be cleared to practice Friday.

@JRyman said:

@Jesse-Newell in sure it will get brought up but what about B. Green and his recovery and time table for return or if he will take a medical red shirt?

Thanks

Thanks for the kind words, guys.

Like I said, KU media days are tomorrow. Any topics (other than Diallo’s eligibility, of course) that you guys are particularly interested in?

How KU basketball (and Bill Self) get a 3.5% edge.

Media day is Thursday, so basketball is coming soon …

Just saw this. Thanks for all the kind words, guys … definitely appreciated.

OSU 70-66. Devonte’ Graham.

There is no “i” in “Jesse.”

@Crimsonorblue22 Assuming you just want KU, right? Here’s half 1 and 2:

Yeah, I asked Dylan about it, and his hypothesis was that corner 3s almost never involve dribbling, which makes sense. Studies have shown that catch-and-shoot percentages are better than those that follow dribbling.

Hey Jaybate- You asked me about corner 3s in college. Dylan Burkhart of shotanalytics.com emailed me back with the stats. This from his email:

“With respect to avgs… 9.2% of (all) FGA are in one of the two corners (compare that to 23.7% are above the break threes). The avg percentage on corner threes is 35.4% and the average for above the break threes is 33.5%.”

So Hoiberg was right with his numbers. Corner 3s are more efficient than non-corner ones. I wonder which coaches know this and utilize it.

Just for fun, here’s KU’s shot chart this year compared to ISU’s.

@JayHawkFanToo He’s been fine stats-wise. Just think this is what Self does with certain guys. We always talk about how one of his best assets as a coach is that he gets talented guys to play hard for him. These tactics are one way he’s able to do that.

Blog on the topic. I’ve been one of Alexander’s biggest supporters, but after going back to the tape, I can see Self’s beef.

@JayHawkFanToo The Vegas line is closer to reality than the actual game score. We’re trying to determine what is going to happen before the game. After it starts … well, stuff happens. You think Florida State is 30-plus points worse than Oregon? Or Oregon is 20-plus points worse than Ohio State? Of course not. Stuff happened. A lot of luck is involved. So if they played the games 100 times, who would win most? That’s what we’re trying to figure out, and the Vegas line (like you said, especially the opening line) is about as close as we can come to that.

@jaybate-1.0 Agree JB. Or even better, as Ken has suggested, take an aggregate of the top proven systems so that outliers are filtered out.

@JayHawkFanToo I didn’t think I was arguing Pom’s merits against Sagarin and Massey, which obviously are well respected as well. I can tell you that Pomeroy’s numbers almost directly reflect the Vegas line, which to me shows he’s right on the money in most cases. He also does test and retest and isn’t afraid to make changes if it improves his projections.

And I’ve got KU beating OSU by two.

The response above I had to you “A few random thoughts” is how I feel about KenPom. Don’t have much to say other than that. We obviously aren’t going to agree on this … you say KenPom’s computer “doesn’t actually watch the games” while I would argue that KenPom’s computer is best at watching the games, being able to take every single possession of every game into account without human bias.

So yes, I believe OU is still a good team. I think there are many games (like the Texas road win) that prove that. Just as I wouldn’t say KU is a bad team because of the Temple game, I’m not going to use one game to end my judging for OU.

ISU barely beat OSU, IMO, because OSU is a really good team. I think you’ll see that tonight when the Cowboys play at Allen Fieldhouse.

Bottom line: From all the information we’ve gathered, OU is the best team in the conference, albeit just slightly. Knowing that, it remains the slight favorite at the top to win or share the title.

Here’s this week’s update. KU makes a nice jump up the board.

I’ve got a professional lurker if you need one, @jaybate-1.0.

@KUSTEVE Yes, 46th. Easily KU’s worst defense under Self. Jayhawks are 193rd in eFG% after never finishing worse than 64th in any other year under Self. This team doesn’t block shots like the past, and it never turns anyone over. Hard to make an effective defense when both those areas are bad.

Again, the numbers aren’t taking into account possible improvement (it usually happens under Self), but up to this point, I’d say that 46th number accurate reflects what this year’s team is: a good defense for normal team standards, a horrible defense for Bill Self standards.

@JayHawkFanToo Here’s the best way I can describe the way I look at it: Every team’s season is a book, and KenPom is able to read all the chapters.

A lot of the arguments that you made — and a lot of people make them — center on one team winning head to head or records against only certain teams. “Chapter 3 and 5 and 9 are good, so how can the book be bad?”

For me, KenPom’s computer is much better than me because it strips biases. Each chapter can add to the overall story. And teams can improve their stock even if they aren’t playing top 50 or 100 or 200 opponents.

In Michigan State’s case … it is the exact opposite of KU: It has lost every close game and blown out almost every other opponent. 30-point wins over top-100 KenPom teams should mean something. Losing an overtime game at Notre Dame (No. 14) also probably tells us MSU is better than its record.

We only get so many data points. Lots of people are content at stopping at head-to-head record or only looking at wins and losses. KenPom’s projection numbers, if you look, are almost a reflection of Vegas’ lines. And that’s because he takes each chapter of a team’s book into consideration.

@JayHawkFanToo Absolutely agree with you on No. 4 … a tougher schedule does mean you don’t have to win by as much to be considered a good team. I think what’s killing KU this year is its losses. Getting routed in two defeats (especially to Temple) drags down an otherwise strong resume.

@JayHawkFanToo A few random thoughts:

1. In the KU RPI story above, KenPom himself says the best method to seed teams would be to take a composite of the top ratings systems. That would eliminate outliers.

2. I think “Top 50” wins is a bad way to look at quality teams. Why not Top 25? Or Top 101? Or Top 213? Where is the game played? Winning on the road at No. 51 is much more impressive than at home vs. No. 5o, This kind of analysis doesn’t add these factors. KenPom does.

3. I don’t see the world in black and white. To me, a team’s strength is independent of its schedule strength. In 2003, Syracuse won a national title without playing a road noncon game. We always hear that scheduling hard is best … but is it true? I have no idea, but I’m not painting myself in that corner. Can a good team play a good noncon schedule? Yes. Can a good team play a bad noncon schedule? I would say the answer to that is yes too.

4. KU is knocked because of margin of victory. Wins and losses of each game don’t give us enough data … the scores (along with pace) tell us so much more. We only get 35 or so data points each year. Throwing away some of the most valuable information — how much you outscored your opponent per possession — seems silly to me, especially when that info is available.

@jaybate-1.0 No apology needed. We will take all the linking we can get at the CJ/Hawkzone.com. The point of the blog was to start discussion and not end it, so I’m glad that’s happening here.

@KUSTEVE I would think it has something to do with this change he made to his system before last season. Here’s an excerpt from that blog post.

“The most consistent exception is the impact on dominant mid-majors. Their movement tends to be more volatile since more emphasis is placed on postseason play when they finally get to battle teams of comparable strength.”

UConn isn’t technically a mid-major, but its conference took a hit a season ago. A quick glance, and the Huskies beat five top-21 KenPom teams to win the title, and each win was by 5 or more. I’m sure that helped, too.

Just for fun … that year Jack Harry said KU would be lucky to finish in the top 5 of the Big 12: here were the KenPom odds: KU 33.12%, MU 32.63%, BU 20.86%, Texas 7.23%, KSU 5.67%, OU .31%, etc.

This will surprise no one … but KenPom. His projections are rarely more than 2 points off the Vegas line. His numbers aren’t perfect, but they’re as close as we have now.

Not to hijack, but RPI is basically the worst measure out there.

KU manipulates its schedule to guarantee it’s high in the RPI. Any system that can be gamed shouldn’t be used.

Thanks, all. Definitely appreciate all the kind words.

My daily assignment … plus I figured you guys would like this photo.

@KUSTEVE Here’s my daily contribution … it’s as nerdy as you’d guess.

@jaybate-1.0 Think we’ll be on the baseline this year. Should be able to report the aroma of the sweat.

Wow, Jaybate. That was an epic response.

You guys always seem to enjoy a good discussion piece …

And again this week …

Come hang out if you’re interested …

Hey guys- Re: Keating, yes he schedules for men’s basketball, women’s basketball and football. I had it an earlier version and trimmed down to just say “scheduling” figuring most people would assume MBB wasn’t his only job.

Oh, and live blog is up.

Live blog up and running …

Live blog’s up …

Hey guys- Doing a chat at noon in case you’d like to submit questions. We’re due for a Q&A on this site soon as well …

Live blog is up for those interested …

Live blog to join the gang …

Live blog is up for those who want to check it out …

Late start, but live blog is here …

Thanks for the shoutout, AsadZ. Found that fascinating as well.

BTW … for the season, Spradling is K-State’s leader in Win Share. Who’d have thought.

Live blog is here for those who want to join in …