jSPN: Bulletin from the Future: KU Defeats Nova Handily
jaybate 1.0 last edited by jaybate 1.0
The Headline to this post is FAKE NEWs in honor of this being the year of Fake News.
But enough faking and now some serious analyzing.
The Bad News: Nova has more length, brawn, 3pt shooters and depth.
The Good News: Force concentration on point of attack is the counter.
We have to chip away at this pyramid and not be tempted to overturn it.
Nova is slightly longer than KU at 1 and 2, then longer and much brawnier at the 3, then longer and much brawnier at the 4, and then shorter but brawny at the 5.
Help defense is the order of the day.
Choosing where and when we help is just as important as it was against Duke, maybe more so.
Nova makes you pay for helping because of all of all 6 of their guys that shoot >39% from trey.
Everyone has to brace for the fact that we are going to be giving up some open look treys as we try to help. There is no other way. We have to concentrate our defenses and help in the high percentage shooting spots and leave them the low percentage spots. If they can beat us from the low percentage spots then they are will beat us. But it is not likely that they can.
The Nova guys that will most determine our chances, i.e., that will be toughest for us to contain, are:
3 Bridges. 6-7 210
4 Spellman 6-10 245
5 Paschal 6-9 255
Of these three, Bridges and Spellman pose the two biggest problems.
If the refs let them play and give Nova the favorable whistle, Nova could kick our asses badly inside and out.
This Nova team has the kind of size and outside shooting bigs and 8-9 man depth that our team with the Morri had.
How did Shaka beat our Morri team?
Shaka caught us on one day of rest after having previously over guarded a Princeton team. We had a depleted energy budget and he exploited it.
His starters were in super condition, and he spaced the offense way out and ran exceptionally long cuts that forced our big guys to chase their players.
Alas, it does not seem likely that KU can run the legs off Nova, since Nova is on a weeks rest. The only team that would benefit from us running them would be Nova’s opponent in the Finals.
We do have to squirt on them intermittently though. Speed and mobility are out edge. Strength and muscle are there edge. We both shoot the rock well.
As I have noted in another thread, the keys to KU having a chance to win would seem to lie with:
a.) fouling up one of their three point shooters; and
b.) forcing their trey shooters into shooting from 3pt spots on the floor most adversely effected by DOME EFFECT;
c.) Using a lot of 3/4 court pressing defense to force Nova to set up farther out and so take its treys from farther out; and
d.) concentrating our forces on a particular Nova player to foul him up.
Frankly, Nova, like Duke, can stay in a trough game.
KU probably can’t fall below 35% and win unless Nova’s shooting goes completely in the tank, as Duke’s did.
Nova should just play smash mouth with us, whenever they can.
But the counter to smash mouth is high mobility aimed at concentrated point of attack on whatever player, or players we can foul up.
Nova’s bigs basically have fattened their trey numbers on little bigs. They aren’t going to shoot that well from trey against our three bigs–even against Svi. Svi is 6-8 and can get up.
If Nova is smart, they will attack inside with their size and try to reduce us to Silvio and Mitch ASAP.
If we are smart, we will junk zone early to protect Doke for the second half and be willing to go in 5-7 down at half time.
We will overplay their guards and encourage their bigs to float out and take the treys.
We need to squirt every chance we get, but then pull up and run the stuff.
The match ups that concern me most are:
a.) Vick vs Bridges where he gives up 2 inches and 4 pounds;
b.) Svi vs. Spellman, where he gives up 2 inches and 30 pounds.
Vick vs Bridges can be dealt with some by rotating Marcus Garrett for more size to cut down Bridges scoring, but its doubtful Garrett can score much on him either.
Svi vs. Spellman is a hairy challenge for Svi. Part of the way Svi has to beat Spellman is by attacking Spellman on offense and getting him fouled up. Spellman is going to back him down of offense and muscle him. I am hopeful that Self has been working Silvio and Doke together a little, so we can run just enough 3-2 hi-lo to keep Spellman and the other guy a little frustrated at times.
But bottom line, this is a HUGE challenge for the find-a-way boys.
Frankly, even doing the things I have outlined, I still think it is going to take some Self genius on top of everything mentioned to pull this off.
And if the find-a-way boys have a trough game, I fear we all are going to have to eat some more Jay Wright crow for another year.