What Would Be the Threshold of Decline in Performance After Which KU Fans Stop Marveling at Self's Ingenius Recruiting Work Arounds?
For whatever reason you wish to assign, KU’s recruiting and roster are increasingly constrained as follows:
1.) No OAD/5-star point guards;
2.) No OAD/5-star 5s:
3.) 1 OAD/5-star recruit per season that can be a 2, 3, or 4 position player;
4.) Decreasing number of 4-star freshman recruits;
5.) Increasing number of graduate transfers and de-commits to plug holes created from recruiting constraints;
6.) Rotation minutes for project 4s and 5s.
This recruiting pattern has been tolerated by KU fans, because KU has continued to win conference titles, win around 80-84% of its games, be invited and seeded high in the Carney, and go out in the 16, or the 8.
So: what would be the threshold of decline in performance that KU fans stop marveling at Self’s ingenious work-arounds and start saying: we’ve got to find a way to recruit rosters comparable to other elite programs, so that we can make serious runs at championships?
What if, KU’s performance declines as follows:
a.) win conference titles 1 out of 4 seasons;
b.) winning 70-75% of games;
c.) Carney seeds 4-10
d.) No runs past the Sweet 16.
The above declines would still constitute seasons to be coveted by most major programs in D1, and maybe even comparable in some respects with other elite programs, but the lack of deep runs and rings would clearly not be comparable with Elite programs.
Would this be okay with KU fans?
If the above scenario would be okay with KU fans, then how far does KU performance have to decline before KU fans start to say KU needs to find a way to change recruiting constraints?
I think all would agree we need to find away to change the constraints now. There is clearly an embargo.
However, Bill is so good I think 4 of 6 conf titles is sustainable. And he brakes the Wizards record this year which will be epic and historic. He will not drop below 80% wins. But only 1 tittle in next 10 years will not surprise me. But it will sadden me because he is so far superior over Roy and Cal.
I’ll wait for the decline to start, before I start to worry. We have the best coach, period. Yes, the squid can sweet talk an unbelievable number of 5 stars each year, but each year he starts from scratch. I don’t think that is a winning strategy, in the long run. Look at the international tournament. Self took the hawks to Korea and won GOLD with 1 five star player (Josh Jackson). The squid took a team of five star players to Egypt and couldn’t win gold. He got beat by that perennial basketball powerhouse, Canada. I rest my case on who is the better coach.
Josh was not on the Korea squad
I would not worry about the Center position, it is dissapearing in the NBA and all the quality bigs with hopes of making it to the League now call themselves PFs or better yet, stretch PFs. College BBall follows the NBA trends.
Look at this 2018 recruiting ranking, 2 out of the top 50 are listed as centers…even 7’1" Bol Bol is listed as PF.
Several kids list themselves as CGs as well. I didn’t realize they were doing that now.
Embargo = Poor Recruiting? Just another name?
I’m not saying we are poor at recruiting. Obviously we’re not. But if we’re not getting our targets at PG and C, could it be that we’re not good at that aspect for whatever reason?
There is obviously not a 2, 3, or 4 embargo.
It all strikes me as a an excuse for our failure* to land guys we want.
*And I don’t think we have “failed” at all. We are in a position to win the national title every year.
If the only schools that seem to our recruit us as whole are Duke and UK, that’s hardly a cause for alarm in my book.
Look at the roster of the Warriors, arguably the best NBA team in the last 10 years and it lists 2 centers (McGee and Pachulia) that average a combined 23.4 mpg which is less than half the time for the position. The 2 listed PFs (Green and West) average just over 48 mpg. No question that the NBA is moving away from the center and using PFs instead. Naturally, HS and college players are moving away from the position and calling themselves PFs and the net result is a shortage of the so called centers…less players available translates to a smaller chance of getting one but with the smaller lineups the lesser need for centers.
As far as PG, I don’t seem to recall Coach Self having a freshman as the starting PG, so naturally, top PG prospects with OAD aspiration will gravitate towards program where freshmen start, like Kentucky. So it is not really a big surprise that OAD PGs would go somewhere else.
So much for the embargo.