Looking to the coming season through rose-colored glasses
-
There seems to be a general down feeling about next years’ team, but looking through my rose colored glasses I think there’s lots of reason for optimism. So here’s my totally biased and likely over optimistic take on where we’ll see improvements this year.
Rebounding. This year’s taller, bigger team will be an elite at rebounding. Flory was usually a very good rebounder, but he got outmuscled by some of the bigger centers. I don’t see Big Paul getting pushed around under the basket. And several of the new guys come in with he reputation of being outstanding rebounders for their positions. Dawes in particular should be a force on the boards, and an improvement over Tiller. I think Tiller has a high ceiling, but he rarely got close to it last year. I think Dawes probably has a lower ceiling but will play close to it much more consistently.
Scoring. This team is going to put up points. Multiple new guys with a record of having big games. Scoring should be especially improved from the bench. Will likely need more scoring as defense is likely to be down a bit but my optimistic take is that the increased scoring will be enough to overcome the diminished defense. I've seen Bill Self quoted saying that several of the new guys are great passers, suggesting that the assist numbers will rise. Melvin and Tre both had some good scoring games, but the consistency was not there, especially at the end of the season.
Bench. In addition to putting up more points, the bench should be deeper this year with at least 3 or maybe 4 guys who can come in and give reliably good production. Hopefully this will lead to fresher legs at the end of games and at the end of the season. I know coach often seems to prefer a short bench, but is that a true preference or a recognition that there was no one there to put in at the end of big games? I seem to remember he consistently used 8-9 guys in 2008.
Big improvements by Rosario and Mbiya. Having taught college for 30+ years I’ve seen so many young freshmen become totally different students after a year or two. Kohl’s athleticism was clear last year, this year he will know what to do with it. I think Big Paul just needed more time to learn he college game, time that he will have this year. This year, I think Paul will be a solid post player, and that by the end of the year we’ll all be hoping Kohl doesn’t declare for the NBA draft.
But what about that defense. It will be hard for this year’s team to match last year’s on the defensive side. Flory could defend all over the floor (which Mbiya can’t) Melvin was a dawg and the other guys were all solid. I’m hoping the deeper bench will allow the starters more rest and fresher legs to make up, at least in part, less skill on the defensive side
In perhaps a more realistic take, I see this year’s team having a lower floor that last years, mostly due to the lack of college ball experience. But I also think they have a higher ceiling. Too have a really good year we need at least 2 of the freshmen to come close to matching their hype, and 3 or 4 of the transfers to produce more than their ratings suggest. I don’t think that’s too much to hope for. There may be some sorry games, especially early in the year, but I think they’ll be able to compete with anyone by the end of the year.