Twin 3pt Bigs Among 6>39% Trifectates: Freak or Reproducible?
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I am concerned there may be no successful return to double post without both posts being able to can the trey.
Nova ran a double post with two stretch 4s. They even had a true 3. The even had a classic 2 guard. They even had PGs and combo guards. In short, they had all the classic pieces. But the decisive part was 6 trey guns > 39%.
KU may fatten up on cup cakes and conference opponents with a treyless quartet of bigs; i.e., “posts that no one has to guard out there.” One may even be a stretch 4 with a 30% trey that supposedly “no one can guard.”
But then basketball’s equivalent of the Guns of Navarone will arrive in Villanova jerseys and it will be lights out in the Champions classic or the Carney.
No amount of bigs and no amount of old fashioned athleticism apparently trumps six >39% trifectates with two of them bigs.
Even a full rotation of the choicest knives of Dr. J athleticism is not enough at a gunfight of DeVincenzo artillery.
3 beats 2.
Period.
It’s so simple. At a certain threshold number of trey guns on the floor, including two that can rim&post protect on the other end, there is simply too much potential scoring area on the floor to deny open looks from.
Great defensive coaches and their hard nosed defenses are turned into shredded wheat.
You can liken the trey to artillery supremacy, or aerial supremacy in hot warfare. Either way you have to deny supremacy in the trey to your opponent if you are to win.
You can liken match-up zones to flexible ground and air fortifications designed, not to crush the enemy at point of ground attack, but to bog it down and draw it into contested 2 point shooting , while you score in uncontested 3-pt shooting.
Trey supremacy with a legitimate rim&post defender/dunker was what made KU what it was this past season. Most teams it could outshoot 3 to 2 and Doke could dunk on at a 70% clip, while it used old fashioned M2M to bog them down on the other end. KU was Villanova Lite. Or Villanova was KU on Steroids.
If KU trades trey supremacy for a stretch 4 offense founded on old fashioned athleticism, it’s doomed to compete only for a conference title. And if an opposing B12 coach can patch together even 4 trey guns with one a good post defender, too, KU will likely fail even to win its 15th title…even with all it’s supposed depth and it’s stretch 4 “no one can guard.”
Rings require aerial supremacy and defense good enough to bog the enemy into 2 pt attempts.
Thus two trey shooting bigs is the new cornerstone of excellence, and holy grail of recruiting.
There are many ways to win at basketball that are not easily reproduced.
Michigan State once won a ring with a 6-9 PG named Magic that was like a 5th and 6th defender out front in a matchup zone, and an unstoppable PG and extra post man on offense.
Teams have found unstoppable footers with great corner shooting wings and a fine PG (UCLA).
And so on.
But the Villanova team with twin trey shooting bigs AND trey shooters at every other position was easily the most dominant team of the 3 pt era once Jay Wright got the kinks worked out of his pioneering endeavor.
The question is: was it a freak, like MSU with Magic, or a repeatable formula, like UCLA and others, with dominant bigs?
Jay reputedly did it without anyone above a Top 75 recruit.
Duplication seems feasible.
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They lost to NCState the year before. You never know in that crapshoot what’s going to happen. Better to enjoy the entire season, than to dwell on the tourney too much.
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Literally last year, two traditional teams in the final after Nova won two years ago. There are plenty of ways to win.
Against a team like Nova, mobile bigs are key for defense.
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@BShark @jaybate-1-0 Could it be that bill kept sending Doke in there to our detriment had to to with Dokes mom flying 8000 miles to seen him for first time in 6 years? He is human too and that pulled on everyones heartstrings. I was afraid that Doke would get too wrapped up in the moment but maybe it was bill? Esp if Doke is leaving. Mitch and Silvio were clearly better match ups as you have aptly noted. Maybe old Bill is a softie deep down.
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I wouldn’t rule anything out at this point.
But Mother Doke did not seem any more happy with what she was witnessing than any other member of Jayhawk nation that second half.
Glad you contributed the thought.
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Winning 2 rings in 3 years means Jay has reduced it to something less than a crap shoot.
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@jaybate-1.0 First time that’s been done? Nope. Doesn’t remove the randomness of a one loss tourney.
‘Nova had the best team this year. They deserved to win, but it didn’t guarantee they would. That crappy shooting night they had against Tech would’ve doomed them against an inferior KU team. And Bill Self would be wonderful etc.
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@jaybate-1.0 Silvio still doesn’t really know what he is doing. Ie the little things like defensive rotations, offensive position etc…
Mitch wasn’t the answer against Nova.
Next year, I think there will be many better options. Including just Silvio being more experienced.
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Come, come, history refutes you.
Wooden won 10 in 11. Not random.
Knight won 3 in 11. More than random.
Coach K won 2 in a row and made it to another 2 FF 1988-1992 year stretch. Not random. He also won 3 more in 15 years. Not random.
Calhoun won 3 in 12 years. Not random.
It turns out there is far less randomness in the tournament than assumed, where the best coaches are concerned.
The randomness you attribute to the tournament largely exists in the uncertainties of recruiting and team building before the team starts the tournament.
It is actually quite impressively (and unsurprising given the bias created by seeding in favor of the better teams) less than random during the stretches the coaches can get the pieces required of a champion.
It is assembling the pieces of a champion, and avoiding injuries and ineligibilities, that are far more difficult to accomplish than managing the error factor of an off night in the tournament.
We now know Cal didn’t lose all those tourneys with long stacks due to randomness in the tournament at all. Cal just was not more than an average coach being gifted more talent than he could effectively manage, and frankly rarely the experienced players necessary for championships most of the time.
Good coaches with the right pieces for the way the game is then being refereed in the Carney, win much more than randomly.
MUCH MORE.
The tournament being largely a crap shoot is a wive’s tale, or better yet, an urban legend.
You give Coach K the pieces of a champion and he will win far more rings than a random walk.
Or Knight. Or Wooden. Or Calhoun. Or Jay Wright. Or I would argue Bill Self, if he were at a NIKE-EST school.
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Again, for the Nova game our failed 1st half defense should have been simplified the second half to “stay with your man wherever he goes. No open look treys. Lose to 2s, not to 3s. Vick, Bridges is your man. Do what ever it takes to stop him.”
Silvio could have done the above in his sleep. Paschal wasn’t a put it on the deck guy. They weren’t ball screening him outside. No hedge defending. No switching. Say, “CHASE! Til u can’t anymore; then signal for Mitch.”
The defensive problem appeared that Self schemed something that would have taken a week of practice time to get proficient at. He misjudged once entering the game and by not going to straight m2m he apparently misjudged at half time.
He may have been blinded by his own strategy and committed the cardinal sin of Marine Corp strategy. He failed to let tactics replace failed strategy; ie, become strategy.
Self would have his insightful, logical reasons for having not changed, but in Marine Corp strategy sound reasons for having lost don’t count. It’s about adapting and exploiting the chaos created by your own failed strategy.
It is about: ADAPTING ANY MEANS THAT YIELDS ADVANCE NECESSARY IN THE MOMENT.
THERE WAS NO ADVANCING THAT SECOND HALF. THERE WAS NO IMPROVISING. THERE WAS NO DISRUPTION. THERE WAS JUST PASSIVE ACCEPTANCE OF MORE OF THE SAME.
The Marine Corp relieves major and tries captains. They relieve captains and try one Louie’s. The relieve one Louie’s with two Louie’s and so on down the ranks. Stasis is not accepted unless stasis itself is ordered.
What counts most in a route is turning tactics into strategy during the route. If failure is imminent or at hand, don’t just stand there, do something. Find a way to advance even a foot.
It is during routes that the enemy often suffers catastrophic success and experiences confusion from overrunning expectations. Use the confusion of its own success against it. No offensive can ever anticipate all the ways it is vulnerable to attack after unexpected success; this is why you never give up after a half like Nova had. But you also don’t keep attacking and defending the same way; that is playing straight into their hands!
Oh enough.
