The Looming Trey Trough, Remedies and the KU Post complex: 20.8/13.7
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The Doke-Mitch-Silvio Post Complex have averaged 20.8 ppg and 13.7 rpg. We are likely to need significantly more from them—more points and more rebounds on both ends.
KU has most recently shot 41% and then 35% descending into its cyclic shooting trough on treys.
The range of prior troughs have been 19% and 35%, so we should expect the coming trough to fall somewhere between and guesstimate in the middle: 28%.
(Note: the 35% against Duke could have been the trough, but I suspect the refs letting Duke hack KU took KU lower than IT OTHERWISE would have descended that soon. Without the hacking, KU probably would have been, say, 37-38% with another descent coming this coming game for the real bottom somewhere in the low 30s or high 20s.)
KU averages 10.1 3pt makes per game on 40.1% 3pt shooting.
Let’s guess KU makes 7 treys; that’s 3 makes below average, or 9 points needing to be made up another way.
Extra focus on Offensive rebounding and put backs with our longer bigs (compared with Nova) could get us 2 baskets, or 4 points.
Diverting a few more 3pta possessions to feeding the bigs could get get us maybe one more 2 on a lob dunk than average, since Nova is not long inside, but very active nonetheless. Call that 2 more points. Note: We can’t expect short-three fouls being awarded by refs against Nova any more than against Puke. Thus, perimeter driving or feeding the post for short treys is NOT how to close the trey gap for a W.
We are still really 4 points, or 2 2point baskets shy of over coming the trey deficit by +1 point. What to do?
Where to find 2 more buckets?
Sound the defensive trumpets!
We need a few extra strips and blocks/recoveries.
Defense helps wins two ways:
a.) by holding down the opponents shooting percentages with belly button defense; and
b.) by stealing possessions (I.e., by denying the opponent the chance to make a basket with a strip or block).
Alas, stripping Nova one on one on the dribble is tough, because they are really a bunch of combo guards same as KU is.
Self usually addresses this issue one of three ways:
a.) with stretches of surprise lane-jumping defense; I.e., defenders gambling on jumping into the passing lanes and risking being out of position to recover if they don’t intercept the pass;
b.) with wing-stripping of lane drivers, I.e., a point guard overplaying on ball and funneling the PG to drive to a side of the lane, where the nearest KU wing is sagging to strip the dribble.
c.) a out of the blue resort to a 3/4 court press (he apparently likes this least).
Jay Wrong knows Self’s 3 tendencies, so Self may be forced to “innovate” another stripping technique.
KU has to have about 4 stolen possessions to get two made 2point baskets.
The only other reasonable way to deal with this trey deficit, given the likely asymmetric whistle, is denying Nova enough second shots (enough under its average of second shot scoring), so that KU does not have to make up the last two baskets at all.
Self appears to take the incremental approach to most scoring problems. He breaks things down and gets a little more here and allows a little less there and before you know it the deficit from bad shooting to make up is not insurmountable, if, that is, you don’t lose your offensive focus and defensive intensity from the shots you miss.
Rock Chalk!!!
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Let’s just hope the trough is still two games away.
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As has been said before trough cycles might be different since games are scheduled farther apart in this tourney. Maybe the Duke swing was really on the way back up with a ways to go!
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@FarSideHawk - THREE games away!
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Thought I cleared this up previously.
Conference season is a weekly series of mostly 2 in 3 or 2 in 4 sets that model and prepare teams for the tournament format. The only disimilarity is the 3 in 3 conference tournament, but that is only one week.
So trends and stats from regular season should be good predictors of post season with the major variable being sharply better average of competition, which might actually drive down stats in the short term.
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@jaybate-1-0 This looks eerily similar to Jay Jay’s Duke scout. “Gotta get rebounds…Steal the ball” - Young Jerrance
I thought you ought to site your sources!
I do feel the real trough is coming for both teams as they will be shooting in a dome. That sight line has proven killer on all kids of shooters. I’ll take Self over Wright (wrong) on the long prep though. If this were the second game… Bill always preps for the first and rolls the dice on the second if both teams are good.
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I swear I did not crib from the kid.
He’s just smarter than me!!
Agree on the dome effect lowering trey accuracy, though I haven’t seen stats on it.
If the dome effect wreaks havoc, KU may benefit with its better big men than Nova.
Can’t say about second game.
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Brunson likes to post up. It seems like maybe a quick double team from Svi or one of our other bigs might be a good way to stop that guard from feeling comfortable in post ups against us.
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@jaybate-1-0 Enjoy this discussion. Thanks for posting. I look to the point in time where perhaps KU turned the corner. They had a hard fought win at home vs. ISU. Shot 34.6 %, 9-26. Then won at home vs. WVU, shooting 31.8%, 7-22. Since then, we’ve never shot that bad.
After that, we have been a much different team. We’ve only shot below 40% from 3-pt range three times, 35% at OSU, 7-20; 39.3% vs. KSU in the Big 12 tourney, 11-28; and vs. Duke this past Sunday, 36.1%, 13-36.
Percentages in order from and including the ISU game - 34.6, 31.8, 55.2, 44, 43.8, 35, 40, 39.3, 55.5, 41.2, 42.9, 45.5, and 36.1.
I tend to think that the we have really reached a different level of consistency. I do think we are a different team than earlier in the season, and thus some earlier statistical considerations might be irrelevant. We are different. We have won 15 of 16 games. Not too long ago, we dreaded of such things.
I bet the over.
There is no doubt that this team could shoot 7/25. Bad nights do happen. But I see the risk to be much lower – very much lower – that we’ve previously thought with this team.
But right now, I feel supremely confident that this team is in a different place. And I think a tidy 43% is in the offing – 10/23.
And I love excising demons – isn’t this run we’ve had very similar to the 2016 run when we put everything together and had won 17 straight before yacking vs. 'Nova? Time to put that one to rest.
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@jaybate-1-0 That was the trough. We hit 12 of 28 for 43%. Doke gets 18 on 9 dunks, and this time we punk them with our superior muscle. Hudy makes all tournament team.
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jaybate 1.0 said:
Thought I cleared this up previously.
Conference season is a weekly series of mostly 2 in 3 or 2 in 4 sets that model and prepare teams for the tournament format. The only disimilarity is the 3 in 3 conference tournament, but that is only one week.
So trends and stats from regular season should be good predictors of post season with the major variable being sharply better average of competition, which might actually drive down stats in the short term.
You say sharply better average of competition might drive down stats-- might playing teams 2-3 times in a short period of time affect the numbers as well?
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Well, you’ve given me at least enough toget ina constructive denial until the game .
Thank you, I needed that.
43% will get us to the Finals.
I’m scalping some some tickets NOW!
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Playing two very good teams in 3 days will put a sweat on any team. But KU played SOME TOUGH TWO GAME SETS, like WVU AND KSU, right? And in regular season you have to play in the other team’s crib, which you don’t have to do in the Carney.
The appearance of differing seeding paths and whistles appearing more difficult than regular season seem factors also. More asymmetry in seeding paths and whistles might lower one teams stats some, and raise another’s, but I haven’t read evidence of such.
But I don’t see any conspiracies in basketball, unless and until (if ever) proven by the authorities in court. Conspiracy theories appear intel memes for suckers.
So what is there to see? Maybe some entertainment value bias, since Coach Barry Hinson reportedly mentioned some once. And maybe an appearance of rent-a-teams, since Coach Bo Ryan reputedly referred to one team as such.
